Xero Limited (XROLF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Xero Limited $47.30, price $38.95, upside +21.4%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $38.95 – $130.00 · fair‑value band $33.11 – $61.49 · the $38.95 price screens below the $47.30 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Xero Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides online business solutions for small businesses and their advisors in Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, the United States, and internationally. It offers accounting, payroll, payments and other solutions through its Xero platform.
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Xero Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides online business solutions for small businesses and their advisors in Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, the United States, and internationally. It offers accounting, payroll, payments and other solutions through its Xero platform. The company also provides Planday, an online employee scheduling software; Hubdoc for bills and receipts; Syft, which creates reports, forecasts, dashboards, and consolidations with AI insights; Melio, a place to pay bills, send invoices, and automate AP/AR workflows; TaxCycle, a tax preparation software for accountants and bookkeepers; and Tickstar, an e-invoicing product. Xero Limited was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Wellington, New Zealand.
Stock analysis
Xero Limited (XROLF) currently trades at $38.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $47.30, implying the stock looks roughly 17.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $77.37 per share, and 12 of the 24 models we run sit above the $38.95 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $10.11, and 12 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $33.11 (bear) to $61.49 (bull), the price of $38.95 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Xero Limited reported revenue of A$3.0B in FY2026 versus A$1.1B in FY2022, a compound +28.3%/yr. Reported net income was A$180M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $8.4B · P/S ratio 3.05 · EPS (TTM) $−0.1100 · Net margin 6.1% · Return on equity 4.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.7% · Operating margin 11.5% · Revenue (TTM) A$2.8B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 62% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at 21%, XROLF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $33.11Fair Value $47.30Bull $61.49
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+55.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +31.6% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+74.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+67.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+67.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 13%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−5.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+18.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in AUD, Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −8.1% a year for the price and +15.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 684 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−7.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4.4% · Above median
Return on assets3.4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)6.1% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)11.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth40.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.11× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.54× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Xero Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/XROLF
Frequently asked questions
Is Xero Limited (XROLF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $47.30 versus a price of $38.95, about +21% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of XROLF?
Our model-based fair value for Xero Limited is $47.30 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $38.95.
What is the quality score of XROLF?
Xero Limited has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Xero Limited (XROLF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $47.30 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $33.11, optimistic scenario $61.49. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Xero Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $47.30, about +21% upside versus a price of $38.95 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $33.11, optimistic scenario $61.49. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Xero Limited (XROLF)?
Xero Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$2.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Xero Limited (XROLF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Xero Limited would have to grow free cash flow by -5.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +28.5 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of XROLF use?
Our models discount Xero Limited at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.71, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Xero Limited that is -5.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Xero Limited (XROLF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Xero Limited grew +28.5 % a year. The price currently implies -5.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Xero Limited (XROLF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Xero Limited (-5.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Xero Limited (XROLF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.11 %: that much free cash flow Xero Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Xero Limited (XROLF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Xero Limited it is $47.30 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $38.95. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Xero Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, XROLF trades below its calculated fair value: price $38.95, fair value $47.30, a gap of about +21% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of XROLF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($38.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($47.30). For Xero Limited the two are $8.35 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Xero Limited worth?
The market values Xero Limited at about $8.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $38.95; our models calculate a fair value of $47.30 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about XROLF?
Our models span a range for Xero Limited: cautious scenario $33.11, base $47.30, optimistic $61.49 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $38.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Xero Limited (XROLF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Xero Limited (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 4.4%, debt of 0.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is XROLF from its 52-week high?
Xero Limited trades at $38.95, about 62% below its 52-week high of $103.81 and at the low of $38.95 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $47.30 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Xero Limited?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Salesforce, Inc, Shopify Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Xero Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $38.95, calculated fair value $47.30 (+21%), Quality Score 41/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of XROLF calculated?
We run Xero Limited through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $47.30, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Xero Limited currently trades 18 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Xero Limited (XROLF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $38.95. Our model-based fair value is $47.30, about +21% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Xero Limited right now?
A fairly wide model range ($33.11 to $61.49) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Xero Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Xero Limited (XROLF)?
The market capitalisation of Xero Limited is $8.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Xero Limited (XROLF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Xero Limited is 3.05 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Xero Limited (XROLF)?
Earnings per share at Xero Limited are $−0.1100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Xero Limited (XROLF)?
The net margin of Xero Limited is 6.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Xero Limited (XROLF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Xero Limited is 4.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Xero Limited (XROLF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Xero Limited is 3.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Xero Limited (XROLF)?
The operating margin of Xero Limited is 11.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Xero Limited (XROLF)?
Revenue at Xero Limited is growing +40.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +28.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Xero Limited (XROLF)?
Earnings per share at Xero Limited are growing +33.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Xero Limited (XROLF) carry?
The net debt of Xero Limited is A$1.3B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 1.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 23, 2026