Seino Holdings (XSE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Seino Holdings €14.08, price €14.30, upside -1.5%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
In Frankfurt, only 0 of the last 21 trading days (30 days) had any turnover. On the other days the price is an indicative quote without trading, so we do not list this stock in the radar. It stays reachable through search.
SHBroad dataSep 30, 2026
Seino Holdings
XSE · F
NeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €6.03 – €15.30 · fair‑value band €9.89 – €18.31 · the €14.30 price screens above the €14.08 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
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Seino Holdings Co., Ltd. provides transportation services in Japan and internationally. The company operates through Transportation Services, Automotive Sales Sales, Goods Sales, and Real Estate Leasing Services segments.
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Seino Holdings Co., Ltd. provides transportation services in Japan and internationally. The company operates through Transportation Services, Automotive Sales Sales, Goods Sales, and Real Estate Leasing Services segments. It offers timed and cash on delivery/settlement services; charter delivery, letter and courier services, bicycle event and transport services, and bin services; and moving, shopping, and logistics services. The company also engages in the sale and repair of trucks, passenger cars, and automobile parts; and provision of shipping and office work support services, and reverse logistics/return management services. In addition, it sells fuel, paper, and paper products, as well as other products; and operates in the information-related services, temporary staffing services, construction contracting, and housing sales, as well as freight forwarding and warehousing business. Further, it offers non-life insurance agency, customs clearance, international multimodal transport business, administrative support services, advertising agencies, taxi services, travel agencies, temporary staffing services, housing sales, and printing services. The company was formerly known as Seino Transportation Co., Ltd. Seino Holdings Co., Ltd. was founded in 1930 and is headquartered in Ogaki, Japan.
Stock analysis
Seino Holdings (XSE) currently trades at €14.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €14.08, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 1.6%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €17.14 per share, and 9 of the 25 models we run sit above the €14.30 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €6.89, and 16 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €9.89 (bear) to €18.31 (bull), the price of €14.30 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Seino Holdings reported revenue of ¥813B in FY2026 versus ¥608B in FY2022, a compound +7.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥23.6B in FY2026, compounding +8.2%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap €2.3B · P/E ratio 17.7 · P/S ratio 0.51 · EPS (TTM) €0.8100 · Dividend yield 4.4% · Net margin 2.9% · Return on equity 6.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −60% fair-value upside, at −2%, XSE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €9.89Fair Value €14.08Bull €18.31
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.67/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.9% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+13.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8.8% vs 4.6%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.0% a year for the price and +0.4% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Trucking · 45 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−3.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6.3% · Above median
Return on assets3.2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)3.2% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)5.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth7.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.19× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Trucking median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Seino Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/XSE
Frequently asked questions
Is Seino Holdings (XSE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €14.08 versus a price of €14.30, about −2% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of XSE?
Our model-based fair value for Seino Holdings is €14.08 (as of Sep 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €14.30.
What is the quality score of XSE?
Seino Holdings has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Seino Holdings (XSE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €14.08 (as of Sep 30, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario €9.89, optimistic scenario €18.31. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Seino Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €14.08, about −2% upside versus a price of €14.30 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €9.89, optimistic scenario €18.31. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Seino Holdings (XSE)?
Seino Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥827B (latest available figure, as of Sep 30, 2026).
Does Seino Holdings pay a dividend?
Seino Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.40% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 30, 2026).
What growth is priced into Seino Holdings (XSE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Seino Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by +7.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.6 % per year. As of Sep 30, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of XSE use?
Our models discount Seino Holdings at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.31, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Seino Holdings that is +7.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Seino Holdings (XSE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Seino Holdings grew +6.6 % a year. The price currently implies +7.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Seino Holdings (XSE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Seino Holdings (+7.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Seino Holdings (XSE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.65 %: that much free cash flow Seino Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Seino Holdings (XSE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Seino Holdings it is €14.08 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026), against a price of €14.30. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Seino Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 30, 2026, XSE trades above its calculated fair value: price €14.30, fair value €14.08, a gap of about −2% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of XSE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€14.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€14.08). For Seino Holdings the two are €0.2200 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Seino Holdings worth?
The market values Seino Holdings at about €2.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 30, 2026). Per share that is €14.30; our models calculate a fair value of €14.08 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about XSE?
Our models span a range for Seino Holdings: cautious scenario €9.89, base €14.08, optimistic €18.31 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026, price €14.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of XSE?
Seino Holdings trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.7 (as of Sep 30, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €14.08 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 6.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Seino Holdings (XSE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Seino Holdings (as of Sep 30, 2026): return on equity 6.3%, debt of 0.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is XSE from its 52-week high?
Seino Holdings trades at €14.30, about 7% below its 52-week high of €15.30 and 23% above the low of €11.62 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €14.08 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Seino Holdings?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc, XPO, Inc, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings, TFI International Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Seino Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 30, 2026: price €14.30, calculated fair value €14.08 (−2%), Quality Score 56/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of XSE calculated?
We run Seino Holdings through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €14.08, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Seino Holdings itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Seino Holdings (XSE)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was €14.30. Our model-based fair value is €14.08, about −2% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Seino Holdings right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (€9.89 to €18.31) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Seino Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of Seino Holdings (XSE)?
The market capitalisation of Seino Holdings is €2.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Seino Holdings (XSE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Seino Holdings is 0.51 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Seino Holdings (XSE)?
Earnings per share at Seino Holdings are €0.8100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Seino Holdings (XSE)?
The dividend yield of Seino Holdings is 4.4% (payout 77.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Seino Holdings (XSE)?
The net margin of Seino Holdings is 2.9% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Seino Holdings (XSE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Seino Holdings is 6.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Seino Holdings (XSE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Seino Holdings is 4.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Seino Holdings (XSE)?
The operating margin of Seino Holdings is 5.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Seino Holdings (XSE)?
Revenue at Seino Holdings is growing +7.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Seino Holdings (XSE)?
Earnings per share at Seino Holdings are growing +51.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Seino Holdings (XSE) carry?
The net debt of Seino Holdings is ¥3.4B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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