XTB S.A (XTB) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · PL · Market cap 15.2B PLN
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Share price +35.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 86% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (29.81 PLN). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 8.60 PLN – 168.00 PLN · fair‑value band 17.88 PLN – 29.81 PLN · the 168.00 PLN price screens above the 23.85 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
XTB S.A (XTB) currently trades at 168.00 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 23.85 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 85.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, XTB S.A generated revenue of 3.2B PLN at a net margin of 31.2%. Revenue grew 89.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 41.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 1.6B PLN. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 17.88 PLN (bear case) to 29.81 PLN (bull case); at 168.00 PLN, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 172% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at -86%, XTB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (161.03 PLN) versus Asset-Based (11.41 PLN). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 94
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
XTB S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides ETF, currency derivatives, commodities, indices, stocks, and bonds brokerage services in Central and Eastern Europe, Western Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East. It operates in two segments, Retail Operations and Institutional Activity.
Full company description
XTB S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides ETF, currency derivatives, commodities, indices, stocks, and bonds brokerage services in Central and Eastern Europe, Western Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East. It operates in two segments, Retail Operations and Institutional Activity. The Retail operations segment engages in the provision of trading in financial instruments for individual customers. The Institutional Activity segment is involved in the provision of trading in financial instruments and offering trade infrastructure to institutions, that provides services of trading in financial instruments for own customers under own brand. The company was formerly known as X-Trade Brokers Dom Maklerski Spólka Akcyjna and changed its name to XTB S.A. in January 2022. XTB S.A. was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Warsaw, Poland. XTB S.A. is a subsidiary of XXZW Investment Group S.A.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
XTB S.A reported revenue of 2.1B PLN in FY2025 versus 642M PLN in FY2021, a compound +34.8%/yr. Reported net income was 644M PLN in FY2025, compounding +28.3%/yr from FY2021.
XTB screens 86% overvalued. Compare with Huatai Securities Co →
Peer Group
Capital Markets · 425 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Huatai Securities Co HTSC | $0.2700 | $0.0400 | -85% |
| Mirae Asset Securities Co 006800 | 38,750 KRW | 31,645 KRW | -18% |
| Meritz Financial Group 138040 | 117,000 KRW | 87,706 KRW | -25% |
| Korea Investment Holdings 071050 | 239,000 KRW | 318,825 KRW | +33% |
| NH Investment & Securities Co 005940 | 31,000 KRW | 37,133 KRW | +20% |
| Samsung Securities Co 016360 | 107,700 KRW | 126,487 KRW | +17% |
| Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited MOTILALOFS | ₹967.00 | ₹299.65 | -69% |
| Kiwoom Securities Co 039490 | 322,000 KRW | 358,091 KRW | +11% |
| SSI Securities Corporation SSI | 24,250 VND | 28,021 VND | +16% |
| Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos S.A BYMA | 313.75 ARS | 120.22 ARS | -62% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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