ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST (XZL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST $0.53, price $0.21, upside +150.0%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.1710 – $0.4337 · fair‑value band $0.3920 – $0.7470 · the $0.2100 price screens below the $0.5250 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Acrophyte Hospitality Trust (ACRO-HT) is a hospitality stapled group. It comprises the Acrophyte Hospitality Property Trust (ACRO-REIT) and Acrophyte Hospitality Management Trust (ACRO-BT). ACRO-HT invests in income-producing real estate assets used primarily for hospitality and/or hospitality-related purposes located in the United States.
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Acrophyte Hospitality Trust (ACRO-HT) is a hospitality stapled group. It comprises the Acrophyte Hospitality Property Trust (ACRO-REIT) and Acrophyte Hospitality Management Trust (ACRO-BT). ACRO-HT invests in income-producing real estate assets used primarily for hospitality and/or hospitality-related purposes located in the United States. As at the date of this announcement, ACRO-HT's portfolio comprises 31 upscale select-service hotels with a total of 4,061 rooms across 16 states in the United States. ACRO-HT is managed by Acrophyte Hospitality Trust Management Pte. Ltd. (REIT-Manager) and Acrophyte Hospitality Business Trust Management Pte. Ltd. (Trustee-Manager), collectively known as the (Manager). The Managers are wholly owned subsidiaries of Acrophyte Asset Management Pte. Ltd. (Acrophyte AM). Acrophyte Hospitality Trust was incorporated in September 24, 2018 and incorporated in Singapore.
Stock analysis
ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST (XZL) currently trades at $0.2100, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.5250, implying the stock looks roughly 60.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $0.5900 per share, and 7 of the 12 models we run sit above the $0.2100 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $0.1200, and 5 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.3920 (bear) to $0.7470 (bull), the price of $0.2100 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST reported revenue of $159M in FY2025 versus $131M in FY2021, a compound +5.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$27.1M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $122M · P/S ratio 0.68 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0500 · Dividend yield 4.3% · Net margin −17.1% · Return on equity −6.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.9% · Operating margin 3.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at 150%, XZL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.3920Fair Value $0.5250Bull $0.7470
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−132.2% (2020) → 1.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.2% a year for the price.
Compare ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Hotel & Motel · 35 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+138.1% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets0.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−17.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)3.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−5.1% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.19× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Hotel & Motel median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/XZL
Frequently asked questions
Is ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST (XZL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.5250 versus a price of $0.2100, about +150% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of XZL?
Our model-based fair value for ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST is $0.5250 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.2100.
What is the quality score of XZL?
ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST (XZL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.5250 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.3920, optimistic scenario $0.7470. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.5250, about +150% upside versus a price of $0.2100 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.3920, optimistic scenario $0.7470. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST (XZL)?
ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $159M (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST pay a dividend?
ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.29% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST (XZL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST would have to grow free cash flow by +17.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.2 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of XZL use?
Our models discount ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST at 11.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.70, country premium for Singapore. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST that is +17.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST (XZL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST grew +15.2 % a year. The price currently implies +17.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST (XZL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST (+17.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST (XZL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.67 %: that much free cash flow ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST (XZL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST it is $0.5250 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $0.2100. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, XZL trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.2100, fair value $0.5250, a gap of about +150% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of XZL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.2100); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.5250). For ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST the two are $0.3150 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST worth?
The market values ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST at about $122M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $0.2100; our models calculate a fair value of $0.5250 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about XZL?
Our models span a range for ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST: cautious scenario $0.3920, base $0.5250, optimistic $0.7470 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $0.2100). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST (XZL)?
Balance-sheet figures for ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity −6.6%, debt of 0.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is XZL from its 52-week high?
ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST trades at $0.2100, about 21% below its 52-week high of $0.2654 and 14% above the low of $0.1850 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.5250 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc, Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc, Apple Hospitality REIT, Inc, COVH, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $0.2100, calculated fair value $0.5250 (+150%), Quality Score 43/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of XZL calculated?
We run ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.5250, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST currently trades 60 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST (XZL)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was $0.2100. Our model-based fair value is $0.5250, about +150% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (43/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.3920). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.3920 to $0.7470) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST
How large is the market capitalisation of ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST (XZL)?
The market capitalisation of ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST is $122M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST (XZL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST is 0.68 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST (XZL)?
Earnings per share at ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST are $−0.0500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST (XZL)?
The dividend yield of ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST is 4.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST (XZL)?
The net margin of ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST is −17.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST (XZL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST is −6.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST (XZL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST is 0.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST (XZL)?
The operating margin of ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST is 3.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST (XZL)?
Revenue at ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST is growing −5.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST (XZL) carry?
The net debt of ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST is $249M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 17.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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