Yamato Holdings (YATRY) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $3.4B
Yamato Holdings
YATRY · US
Fair value as of: Jul 25, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 25, 2026, revised from $5.96 to $9.43 (+58.3%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +7.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 24% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($11.78). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.69 – $25.33 · fair‑value band $7.07 – $11.78 · the $12.35 price screens above the $9.43 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
Analysis
Yamato Holdings (YATRY) currently trades at $12.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.43, implying the stock looks roughly 23.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Yamato Holdings generated revenue of $1.9T at a net margin of 0.7%. Revenue grew 2.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $43.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $7.07 (bear case) to $11.78 (bull case); at $12.35, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -70% fair-value upside, at -24%, YATRY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($10.92) versus Earnings-Based ($3.98). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 25, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Yamato Holdings Co., Ltd. provides logistics shipping services in Japan and internationally. It operates through Express Business, Contract logistics Business, Global Business, Mobility Business, and Other segments.
Full company description
Yamato Holdings Co., Ltd. provides logistics shipping services in Japan and internationally. It operates through Express Business, Contract logistics Business, Global Business, Mobility Business, and Other segments. The Express Business segment engages in the truck transportation, and chartered roll box pallet transportation businesses, as well as provides home delivery services for individuals and corporate customers. The Contract and logistics Business segment engages in the third party and real estate business. The Global Business segment engages in truck transportation business for corporate customers; planning and operation of logistics centers; and import/export customs clearance, and air transport agency services. The Mobility Business segment engages in automobile maintenance, fuel sales, and non-life insurance agency business. The Other engages in the development and operation management of IT system, call center, and financial services business. Yamato Holdings Co., Ltd. was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Chuo, Japan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Yamato Holdings reported revenue of $2.0T in FY2026 versus $1.8T in FY2022, a compound +2.5%/yr. Reported net income was $14.5B in FY2026, compounding −28.7%/yr from FY2022.
YATRY screens 24% overvalued. Compare with Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc →
Peer Group
Trucking · 47 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Trucking median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Trucking stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 25, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc ODFL | $225.23 | $103.37 | -54% |
| XPO, Inc XPO | $219.29 | $56.52 | -74% |
| TFI International Inc TFII | $155.83 | $110.79 | -29% |
| Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings KNX | $75.19 | $8.58 | -89% |
| Saia, Inc SAIA | $438.29 | $129.64 | -70% |
| Schneider National, Inc SNDR | $38.19 | $12.37 | -68% |
| RXO, Inc RXO | $27.07 | $3.48 | -87% |
| ArcBest Corporation ARCB | $147.13 | $45.89 | -69% |
| Werner Enterprises, Inc WERN | $46.04 | $8.24 | -82% |
| Dazhong Transportation (Group) Co 600611 | ¥4.55 | ¥1.20 | -74% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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