Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd $17.11, price $12.31, upside +39.0%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.69 – $25.33 · fair‑value band $12.76 – $19.11 · the $12.31 price screens below the $17.11 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Yamato Holdings Co., Ltd. provides logistics shipping services in Japan and internationally. It operates through Express Business, Contract logistics Business, Global Business, Mobility Business, and Other segments.
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Yamato Holdings Co., Ltd. provides logistics shipping services in Japan and internationally. It operates through Express Business, Contract logistics Business, Global Business, Mobility Business, and Other segments. The Express Business segment engages in the truck transportation, and chartered roll box pallet transportation businesses, as well as provides home delivery services for individuals and corporate customers. The Contract and logistics Business segment engages in the third party and real estate business. The Global Business segment engages in truck transportation business for corporate customers; planning and operation of logistics centers; and import/export customs clearance, and air transport agency services. The Mobility Business segment engages in automobile maintenance, fuel sales, and non-life insurance agency business. The Other engages in the development and operation management of IT system, call center, and financial services business. Yamato Holdings Co., Ltd. was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Chuo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR (YATRY) currently trades at $12.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.11, implying the stock looks roughly 28.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $12.78 per share, and 10 of the 23 models we run sit above the $12.31 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $4.60, and 13 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $12.76 (bear) to $19.11 (bull), the price of $12.31 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥2.0T in FY2026 versus ¥1.8T in FY2022, a compound +2.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥14.5B in FY2026, compounding −28.7%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $3.9B · P/E ratio 45.6 · P/S ratio 0.33 · EPS (TTM) $0.2700 · Dividend yield 2.7% · Net margin 0.7% · Return on equity 2.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −59% fair-value upside, at 39%, YATRY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $12.76Fair Value $17.11Bull $19.11
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.59/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.4% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−11.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−14.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−21% vs −6%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−0.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.3% a year for the price and −0.8% for the forecasts.
Compare Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Trucking · 47 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+39% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.18× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Trucking median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/YATRY
Frequently asked questions
Is Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $17.11 versus a price of $12.31, about +39% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of YATRY?
Our model-based fair value for Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR is $17.11 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $12.31.
What is the quality score of YATRY?
Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $17.11 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $12.76, optimistic scenario $19.11. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $17.11, about +39% upside versus a price of $12.31 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $12.76, optimistic scenario $19.11. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY)?
Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥1.9T (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.68% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR would have to grow free cash flow by -0.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of YATRY use?
Our models discount Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.29, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR that is -0.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR grew +3.1 % a year. The price currently implies -0.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR (-0.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.93 %: that much free cash flow Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR it is $17.11 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $12.31. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, YATRY trades below its calculated fair value: price $12.31, fair value $17.11, a gap of about +39% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of YATRY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($12.31); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($17.11). For Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR the two are $4.80 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR at about $3.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $12.31; our models calculate a fair value of $17.11 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about YATRY?
Our models span a range for Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $12.76, base $17.11, optimistic $19.11 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $12.31). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of YATRY?
Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 45.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $17.11 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 5.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 2.3%, debt of 0.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc, XPO, Inc, TFI International Inc, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $12.31, calculated fair value $17.11 (+39%), Quality Score 64/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of YATRY calculated?
We run Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $17.11, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR currently trades 39 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $12.31. Our model-based fair value is $17.11, about +39% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($12.76). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY) come from?
Earnings per share at Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR grew +1.7 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.2 %, EBIT margin −10.2 %, tax rate +1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +5.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY)?
The market capitalisation of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR is $3.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR is 0.33 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY)?
Earnings per share at Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR are $0.2700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 45.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY)?
The dividend yield of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR is 2.7% (payout 122%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY)?
The net margin of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR is 0.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR is 2.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR is 3.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY)?
The operating margin of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR is −2.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY)?
Revenue at Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR is growing +2.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY)?
Earnings per share at Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR are growing −19.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY) hold?
Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR holds more cash than debt, ¥43.1B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026