Zalando SE (ZAL) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · DE · Market cap €7.1B
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 14, 2026, revised from €22.60 to €18.33 (−18.9%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −6.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 26% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€22.91). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €16.32 – €104.65 · fair‑value band €13.75 – €22.91 · the €24.61 price screens above the €18.33 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
Zalando SE (ZAL) currently trades at €24.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €18.33, implying the stock looks roughly 25.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Zalando SE generated revenue of €12.9B at a net margin of 0.9%. Revenue grew 23.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of €436M. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €13.75 (bear case) to €22.91 (bull case); at €24.61, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -49% fair-value upside, at -26%, ZAL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (€65.67) versus Dividend Discount (€4.95). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Zalando SE operates an online platform for fashion and lifestyle products in Germany and internationally. The company operates through Business-to-Business and Business-to-Consumer segments.
Full company description
Zalando SE operates an online platform for fashion and lifestyle products in Germany and internationally. The company operates through Business-to-Business and Business-to-Consumer segments. It engages in the development, sourcing, marketing, retail, and commission sale of various type of goods, including shoes, apparel, accessories, and beauty products with free delivery and returns, as well as various payment options. The company sells its products through Lounge by Zalando and its outlets. Zalando SE was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Berlin, Germany.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Zalando SE reported revenue of €12.3B in FY2025 versus €10.4B in FY2021, a compound +4.5%/yr. Reported net income was €215M in FY2025, compounding −2.1%/yr from FY2021.
ZAL screens 26% overvalued. Compare with Amazon.com, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Zalando trims FY26 outlook despite strong Q2 revenue growth
- Zalando SE (ZLNDY) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: B2B Strength Offsets Sneaker Softness as ...
- Zalando Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- BaFin closes Zalando disclosure probe, finds errors but issues no fine
Peer Group
Internet Retail · 109 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Internet Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon.com, Inc AMZN | $245.34 | $127.67 | -48% |
| Alibaba Group BABA | $114.97 | $75.75 | -34% |
| PDD Holdings PDD | $84.14 | $223.51 | +166% |
| MercadoLibre, Inc MELI | $1,814 | $798.98 | -56% |
| DoorDash, Inc DASH | $190.16 | $38.64 | -80% |
| Sea Limited SE | $106.22 | $52.70 | -50% |
| eBay Inc EBAY | $117.20 | $60.13 | -49% |
| JD.com, Inc JD | €25.95 | €31.88 | +23% |
| Coupang, Inc CPNG | $16.86 | $2.79 | -83% |
| Delivery Hero SE DHER | €38.18 | €12.71 | -67% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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