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Zhejiang Expressway Co (ZHEXF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Zhejiang Expressway Co is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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ZE
Thin data
Sep 13, 2026
Thin data
Sep 13, 2026
Zhejiang Expressway Co
ZHEXF · USCheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.
✓Fair value $2.10 · Strongly undervalued (+169%)
!Quality 37/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +9.1 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 24.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 66/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0773 – $0.9037 · fair‑value band $2.03 – $2.73 · the $0.7800 price screens below the $2.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Company profile
Zhejiang Expressway Co., Ltd., an investment holding company, invests, develops, maintains, and operates roads in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Toll Operation, Securities Operation, and Others segments. The Toll Operation segment operates and manages high grade roads; and collects expressway tolls.
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Zhejiang Expressway Co., Ltd., an investment holding company, invests, develops, maintains, and operates roads in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Toll Operation, Securities Operation, and Others segments. The Toll Operation segment operates and manages high grade roads; and collects expressway tolls. The Securities Operation segment offers securities and future broking, margin financing and securities lending, securities underwriting and sponsorship, asset management, advisory, and proprietary trading services. The Others segment engages in hotel operation, high grade road construction, investment in other financial institutions, and other ancillary activities. It provides vehicle towing, repair and emergency, and rescue services, as well as investment management, advisory services, private equity investments and; and technology services. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, the People's Republic of China. Zhejiang Expressway Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Zhejiang Communications Investment Group Co., Ltd.
Stock analysis
Zhejiang Expressway Co (ZHEXF) currently trades at $0.7800, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.10, implying the stock looks roughly 62.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $16.86 per share, and 26 of the 26 models we run sit above the $0.7800 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $5.62, and 0 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $2.03 (bear) to $2.73 (bull), the price of $0.7800 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Zhejiang Expressway Co reported revenue of 19.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 16.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound +4.3%/yr. Reported net income was 5.2B CNY in FY2025, compounding +2.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $5.1B · P/E ratio 6.4 · P/S ratio 1.72 · EPS (TTM) $0.1300 · Net margin 27.0% · Return on equity 9.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.1% · Operating margin 38.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 169%, ZHEXF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.03
Fair Value $2.10
Bull $2.73
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$14.76
$17.74
$22.35
82
Growth DCF
$14.78
$17.62
$21.94
80
Owner Earnings
$24.15
$33.01
$46.77
77
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$14.76
$17.74
$22.35
82
Owner Earnings
$24.15
$33.01
$46.77
77
5Y Revenue Exit
$14.21
$16.87
$20.34
74
5Y EBITDA Exit
$21.56
$31.22
$43.00
75
5Y P/E Exit
$19.65
$27.50
$36.13
71
10Y Revenue Exit
$14.24
$16.73
$20.25
68
10Y EBITDA Exit
$19.02
$26.70
$37.85
68
10Y P/E Exit
$17.81
$24.12
$32.51
64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$5.87
$22.20
$30.05
64
Lynch FV
$5.38
$7.68
$9.99
61
PEG = 1.0
$5.38
$7.68
$9.99
57
EPV
$16.88
$17.96
$18.90
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$3.37
$6.71
$10.16
67
DDM Multi-Stage
$3.37
$5.80
$7.08
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$13.60
$18.13
$22.66
63
P/S Multiple
$4.80
$6.41
$8.01
58
P/B Multiple
$11.01
$14.68
$18.35
55
EV/EBIT
$23.63
$28.16
$32.70
66
EV/EBITDA
$26.86
$32.47
$38.09
67
EV/Revenue
$14.05
$15.78
$17.51
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$4.19
$5.62
$8.39
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$14.78
$17.62
$21.94
80
Rev-Margin DCF
$14.21
$16.86
$20.07
74
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$7.34
$8.14
$12.08
75
ROIC Compounder
$16.88
$17.96
$18.90
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$9.85
$14.08
$18.30
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
37/100
Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51
Profitability
35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
24
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
28
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
29
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
51
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
53
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
46
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
75/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.1%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+1.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1% vs 2%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.34% → 33%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+5.2%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+9.2%
Projected 2028 (sales)+8.3%
Projected 2029 (sales)+7.4%
Projected 2030 (sales)+6.5%
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Infrastructure Operations · 65 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Infrastructure Operations median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Industrials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Industrials
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Infrastructure Operations stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Transurban Group TCL | A$13.72 | A$1.84 | −87% |
| China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings 001965 | ¥9.80 | ¥11.91 | +22% |
| Jiangsu Expressway Company 600377 | ¥12.60 | ¥14.47 | +15% |
| Shandong Hi-speed Company 600350 | ¥10.15 | ¥8.04 | −21% |
| Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co 000429 | ¥12.64 | ¥13.90 | +10% |
| Anhui Expressway Company 600012 | ¥15.78 | ¥17.36 | +10% |
| Shenzhen Expressway Corporation 600548 | ¥8.20 | ¥9.16 | +12% |
| IRB Infrastructure Developers Limited IRB | ₹19.64 | ₹21.60 | +10% |
| Sichuan Expressway Company 601107 | ¥5.89 | ¥6.48 | +10% |
| CUBEINVIT CUBEINVIT | ₹156.80 | ₹46.01 | −71% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Zhejiang Expressway Co (ZHEXF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.10 versus a price of $0.7800, about +169% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ZHEXF?
Our model-based fair value for Zhejiang Expressway Co is $2.10 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.7800.
What is the quality score of ZHEXF?
Zhejiang Expressway Co has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Zhejiang Expressway Co (ZHEXF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.10 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.03, optimistic scenario $2.73. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Zhejiang Expressway Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.10, about +169% upside versus a price of $0.7800 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $2.03, optimistic scenario $2.73. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Zhejiang Expressway Co (ZHEXF)?
Zhejiang Expressway Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 20.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Zhejiang Expressway Co (ZHEXF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Zhejiang Expressway Co would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.1 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ZHEXF use?
Our models discount Zhejiang Expressway Co at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.14, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Zhejiang Expressway Co that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Zhejiang Expressway Co (ZHEXF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Zhejiang Expressway Co grew +9.1 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Zhejiang Expressway Co (ZHEXF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Zhejiang Expressway Co (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Zhejiang Expressway Co (ZHEXF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.96 %: that much free cash flow Zhejiang Expressway Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Zhejiang Expressway Co (ZHEXF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Zhejiang Expressway Co it is $2.10 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $0.7800. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Zhejiang Expressway Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, ZHEXF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.7800, fair value $2.10, a gap of about +169% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ZHEXF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.7800); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.10). For Zhejiang Expressway Co the two are $1.32 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Zhejiang Expressway Co worth?
The market values Zhejiang Expressway Co at about $5.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $0.7800; our models calculate a fair value of $2.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ZHEXF?
Our models span a range for Zhejiang Expressway Co: cautious scenario $2.03, base $2.10, optimistic $2.73 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $0.7800). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ZHEXF?
Zhejiang Expressway Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.4 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $2.10 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 1.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Zhejiang Expressway Co (ZHEXF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Zhejiang Expressway Co (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 9.3%, debt of 0.72 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ZHEXF from its 52-week high?
Zhejiang Expressway Co trades at $0.7800, about 19% below its 52-week high of $0.9668 and 2% above the low of $0.7639 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Zhejiang Expressway Co?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Transurban Group, China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings, Jiangsu Expressway Company, Shandong Hi-speed Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Zhejiang Expressway Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $0.7800, calculated fair value $2.10 (+169%), Quality Score 37/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ZHEXF calculated?
We run Zhejiang Expressway Co through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.10, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Zhejiang Expressway Co currently trades 169 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Zhejiang Expressway Co right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (37/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($2.03). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Zhejiang Expressway Co (ZHEXF) come from?
Earnings per share at Zhejiang Expressway Co grew +4.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.3 %, EBIT margin −2.2 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Zhejiang Expressway Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Zhejiang Expressway Co (ZHEXF)?
The market capitalisation of Zhejiang Expressway Co is $5.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Zhejiang Expressway Co (ZHEXF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Zhejiang Expressway Co is 1.72 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Zhejiang Expressway Co (ZHEXF)?
Earnings per share at Zhejiang Expressway Co are $0.1300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Zhejiang Expressway Co (ZHEXF)?
The net margin of Zhejiang Expressway Co is 27.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Zhejiang Expressway Co (ZHEXF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Zhejiang Expressway Co is 9.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Zhejiang Expressway Co (ZHEXF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Zhejiang Expressway Co is 3.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Zhejiang Expressway Co (ZHEXF)?
The operating margin of Zhejiang Expressway Co is 38.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Zhejiang Expressway Co (ZHEXF)?
Revenue at Zhejiang Expressway Co is growing +21.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Zhejiang Expressway Co (ZHEXF)?
Earnings per share at Zhejiang Expressway Co are growing −11.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Zhejiang Expressway Co (ZHEXF) carry?
The net debt of Zhejiang Expressway Co is 15.6B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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