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ZKH Group Limited (ZKH) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of ZKH Group Limited $3.83, price $2.86, upside +33.9%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Consumer Cyclical · US · ISIN US98877R1041

ZG ZKH Group Limited logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

ZKH Group Limited

ZKH · US

UndervaluedThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.

✓Fair value $3.83 · Undervalued (+34%)
!Quality 54/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +13.3 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -0.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (6/11)
!Narrow moat 21/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$20.52 $2.06 Fair Value $3.83 Dec 2023 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

33‑month range $2.06 – $20.52 · fair‑value band $3.17 – $5.09 · the $2.86 price screens below the $3.83 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

ZKH Group Limited develops and operates a maintenance, repair, and operating (MRO) products trading and service platform that offers spare parts, chemicals, manufacturing parts, general consumables, and office supplies in the People's Republic of China.

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ZKH Group Limited develops and operates a maintenance, repair, and operating (MRO) products trading and service platform that offers spare parts, chemicals, manufacturing parts, general consumables, and office supplies in the People's Republic of China. It offers equipment parts, including pump valve fittings, low voltage electrical, electric automation, wire and cable, fastening seal, pneumatics and hydraulics, and instrumentation products; chemicals, such as workshop chemicals, chemical reagents, lubricants, and adhesives, as well as paint and painting supplies; and manufacturing parts comprising cutting tool, air compressor, electronic vending machine, factory automation, and abrasive measuring tool products. The company also provides general consumables, including security-related, material handling, power transmission, personal protective equipment, welding, tape and label, cleaning supply, laboratory instrument consumable, and hardware and hand tool products; and office supply, furniture, fringe, lightening, refrigeration and heating, ventilating, air conditioning, and building material products. In addition, it offers MRO procurement and management services; AI-powered MRO procurement solutions; and logistics and warehousing services. Further, the company engages in the production and sale of intelligent warehousing equipment. ZKH Group Limited was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

Stock analysis

ZKH Group Limited (ZKH) currently trades at $2.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.83, implying the stock looks roughly 25.3% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $28.19 per share, and 13 of the 13 models we run sit above the $2.86 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $12.67, and 0 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $3.17 (bear) to $5.09 (bull), the price of $2.86 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

ZKH Group Limited reported revenue of $8.8B in FY2025 versus $7.7B in FY2021, a compound +3.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$268M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $469M · P/S ratio 0.04 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0500 · Net margin −3.1% · Return on equity −2.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −6.9% · Operating margin −1.1% · Revenue (TTM) $9.2B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 34%, ZKH screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $3.17 Fair Value $3.83 Bull $5.09
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $17.29 $20.47 $24.43 81
Growth DCF $17.43 $20.31 $23.72 79
5Y EBITDA Exit $24.08 $33.83 $44.81 75
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $17.29 $20.47 $24.43 81
5Y Revenue Exit $22.42 $30.85 $41.36 72
5Y EBITDA Exit $24.08 $33.83 $44.81 75
10Y Revenue Exit $19.68 $26.35 $34.77 67
10Y EBITDA Exit $21.09 $28.19 $37.07 68
Earnings-Based
EPV $23.31 $25.34 $27.03 72
Multiples
EV/EBIT $34.78 $43.57 $52.35 65
EV/EBITDA $31.84 $39.64 $47.45 66
EV/Revenue $27.24 $35.30 $43.36 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $9.45 $12.67 $18.91 52
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $17.43 $20.31 $23.72 79
Rev-Margin DCF $22.42 $30.87 $39.93 73
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder $23.77 $26.62 $29.59 71

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43

Profitability 29
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 54
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 31
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 67
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 41
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 38
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 63
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 61/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−8.5% (2020) → −4.6% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.5% a year for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+12.7%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+12.7%
Projected 2028 (sales)+11.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)+10.0%
Projected 2030 (sales)+8.7%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Retail · 108 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 54 · Above median
Fair Value upside +34% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) −1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.01× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.15× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.05× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 3.2× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)78 · sector 48
FUTURE (revenue growth)46 · sector 55
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)99 · sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 37

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Internet Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Amazon.com, Inc AMZN $249.27 $127.33 −49%
Alibaba Group BABA $110.63 $66.57 −40%
MercadoLibre, Inc MELI $1,799 $1,979 +10%
DoorDash, Inc DASH $189.27 $207.62 +10%
Sea Limited SE $103.29 $129.32 +25%
eBay Inc EBAY $109.09 $120.00 +10%
JD.com, Inc JD $27.16 $33.29 +23%
Coupang, Inc CPNG $14.61 $4.99 −66%
Delivery Hero SE DHER €36.47 €12.71 −65%
Wayfair Inc W $107.35 $36.28 −66%

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ZKH Group Limited · Fair Value
$3.83 +25%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ZKH Group Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ZKH

Frequently asked questions

Is ZKH Group Limited (ZKH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.83 versus a price of $2.86, about +34% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ZKH?
Our model-based fair value for ZKH Group Limited is $3.83 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.86.
What is the quality score of ZKH?
ZKH Group Limited has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ZKH Group Limited (ZKH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.83 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.17, optimistic scenario $5.09. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ZKH Group Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.83, about +34% upside versus a price of $2.86 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $3.17, optimistic scenario $5.09. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ZKH Group Limited (ZKH)?
ZKH Group Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $9.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into ZKH Group Limited (ZKH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ZKH Group Limited would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.3 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ZKH use?
Our models discount ZKH Group Limited at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.44, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ZKH Group Limited that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ZKH Group Limited (ZKH) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ZKH Group Limited grew +13.3 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ZKH Group Limited (ZKH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ZKH Group Limited (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ZKH Group Limited (ZKH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 31.16 %: that much free cash flow ZKH Group Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ZKH Group Limited (ZKH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ZKH Group Limited it is $3.83 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $2.86. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ZKH Group Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ZKH trades below its calculated fair value: price $2.86, fair value $3.83, a gap of about +34% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ZKH?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.86); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.83). For ZKH Group Limited the two are $0.9680 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ZKH Group Limited worth?
The market values ZKH Group Limited at about $469M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $2.86; our models calculate a fair value of $3.83 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ZKH?
Our models span a range for ZKH Group Limited: cautious scenario $3.17, base $3.83, optimistic $5.09 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $2.86). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of ZKH Group Limited (ZKH)?
Balance-sheet figures for ZKH Group Limited (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −2.8%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ZKH from its 52-week high?
ZKH Group Limited trades at $2.86, about 25% below its 52-week high of $3.79 and 39% above the low of $2.06 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.83 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ZKH Group Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, Alibaba Group, MercadoLibre, Inc, DoorDash, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ZKH Group Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $2.86, calculated fair value $3.83 (+34%), Quality Score 54/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ZKH calculated?
We run ZKH Group Limited through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.83, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. ZKH Group Limited currently trades 34 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ZKH Group Limited (ZKH)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $2.86. Our model-based fair value is $3.83, about +34% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ZKH Group Limited right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($3.17). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (54/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Key figures of ZKH Group Limited

How large is the market capitalisation of ZKH Group Limited (ZKH)?
The market capitalisation of ZKH Group Limited is $469M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ZKH Group Limited (ZKH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ZKH Group Limited is 0.04 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ZKH Group Limited (ZKH)?
Earnings per share at ZKH Group Limited are $−0.0500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of ZKH Group Limited (ZKH)?
The net margin of ZKH Group Limited is −3.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ZKH Group Limited (ZKH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ZKH Group Limited is −2.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ZKH Group Limited (ZKH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ZKH Group Limited is −6.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ZKH Group Limited (ZKH)?
The operating margin of ZKH Group Limited is −1.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ZKH Group Limited (ZKH)?
Revenue at ZKH Group Limited is growing +9.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does ZKH Group Limited (ZKH) hold?
ZKH Group Limited holds more cash than debt, $875M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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