WELCAST STEELS LTD. (ZWELCAST) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of WELCAST STEELS LTD. ₹504, price ₹601, upside -16.1%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹316.49 – ₹1,813 · fair‑value band ₹383.21 – ₹690.83 · the ₹600.50 price screens above the ₹504.07 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
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Welcast Steels Limited engages in the manufacture and sale of high chrome grinding media balls primarily in India. Its products are used for crushing/grinding process in the cement, mining, and thermal power industries. The company also exports its products. The company was incorporated in 1972 and is based in Bengaluru, India.
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Welcast Steels Limited engages in the manufacture and sale of high chrome grinding media balls primarily in India. Its products are used for crushing/grinding process in the cement, mining, and thermal power industries. The company also exports its products. The company was incorporated in 1972 and is based in Bengaluru, India. As of March 31, 2023, Welcast Steels Limited operates as a subsidiary of AIA Engineering Limited.
Stock analysis
WELCAST STEELS LTD. (ZWELCAST) currently trades at ₹600.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹504.07, 16.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ₹587.35 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the ₹600.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹361.37, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ₹383.21 (bear) to ₹690.83 (bull), the price of ₹600.50 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
WELCAST STEELS LTD. reported revenue of ₹458M in FY2026 versus ₹824M in FY2022, a compound −13.7%/yr. Reported net income was −₹53.0M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap ₹383M (≈ $4.0M) · P/S ratio 1.40 · EPS (TTM) ₹−89.77 · Net margin −11.6% · Return on equity −14.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.7% · Operating margin −96.9% · Revenue (TTM) ₹274M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −16%, ZWELCAST screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹383.21Fair Value ₹504.07Bull ₹690.83
Price ₹600.50 · Upside -16.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.18/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−45.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−21.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−14.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−22.3%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1.5% (2021) → −7.7% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.5% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 406 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−16.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−5.3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−20.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−96.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−94.7% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is WELCAST STEELS LTD. (ZWELCAST) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹504.07 versus a price of ₹600.50, about −16% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ZWELCAST?
Our model-based fair value for WELCAST STEELS LTD. is ₹504.07 (as of Oct 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹600.50.
What is the quality score of ZWELCAST?
WELCAST STEELS LTD. has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for WELCAST STEELS LTD. (ZWELCAST)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹504.07 (as of Oct 4, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹383.21, optimistic scenario ₹690.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the WELCAST STEELS LTD. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹504.07, about −16% upside versus a price of ₹600.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹383.21, optimistic scenario ₹690.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of WELCAST STEELS LTD. (ZWELCAST)?
WELCAST STEELS LTD. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹274M (latest available figure, as of Oct 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into WELCAST STEELS LTD. (ZWELCAST)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, WELCAST STEELS LTD. would have to grow free cash flow by +4.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -14.0 % per year. As of Oct 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ZWELCAST use?
Our models discount WELCAST STEELS LTD. at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.02, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For WELCAST STEELS LTD. that is +4.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has WELCAST STEELS LTD. (ZWELCAST) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at WELCAST STEELS LTD. grew -14.0 % a year. The price currently implies +4.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of WELCAST STEELS LTD. (ZWELCAST) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into WELCAST STEELS LTD. (+4.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of WELCAST STEELS LTD. (ZWELCAST)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.37 %: that much free cash flow WELCAST STEELS LTD. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of WELCAST STEELS LTD. (ZWELCAST)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For WELCAST STEELS LTD. it is ₹504.07 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026), against a price of ₹600.50. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is WELCAST STEELS LTD. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 4, 2026, ZWELCAST trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹600.50, fair value ₹504.07, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ZWELCAST?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹600.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹504.07). For WELCAST STEELS LTD. the two are ₹96.43 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is WELCAST STEELS LTD. worth?
The market values WELCAST STEELS LTD. at about ₹383M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 4, 2026). Per share that is ₹600.50; our models calculate a fair value of ₹504.07 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ZWELCAST?
Our models span a range for WELCAST STEELS LTD.: cautious scenario ₹383.21, base ₹504.07, optimistic ₹690.83 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026, price ₹600.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of WELCAST STEELS LTD. (ZWELCAST)?
Balance-sheet figures for WELCAST STEELS LTD. (as of Oct 4, 2026): return on equity −14.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ZWELCAST from its 52-week high?
WELCAST STEELS LTD. trades at ₹600.50, about 43% below its 52-week high of ₹1,050 and at the low of ₹600.50 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹504.07 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to WELCAST STEELS LTD.?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is WELCAST STEELS LTD. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 4, 2026: price ₹600.50, calculated fair value ₹504.07 (−16%), Quality Score 56/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ZWELCAST calculated?
We run WELCAST STEELS LTD. through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹504.07, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. WELCAST STEELS LTD. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of WELCAST STEELS LTD. (ZWELCAST)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹600.50. Our model-based fair value is ₹504.07, about −16% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with WELCAST STEELS LTD. right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (₹383.21 to ₹690.83) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of WELCAST STEELS LTD.
How large is the market capitalisation of WELCAST STEELS LTD. (ZWELCAST)?
The market capitalisation of WELCAST STEELS LTD. is ₹383M (≈ $4.0M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of WELCAST STEELS LTD. (ZWELCAST)?
The price-to-sales ratio of WELCAST STEELS LTD. is 1.40 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of WELCAST STEELS LTD. (ZWELCAST)?
Earnings per share at WELCAST STEELS LTD. are ₹−89.77. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of WELCAST STEELS LTD. (ZWELCAST)?
The net margin of WELCAST STEELS LTD. is −11.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of WELCAST STEELS LTD. (ZWELCAST)?
The return on equity (ROE) of WELCAST STEELS LTD. is −14.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of WELCAST STEELS LTD. (ZWELCAST)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of WELCAST STEELS LTD. is 0.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of WELCAST STEELS LTD. (ZWELCAST)?
The operating margin of WELCAST STEELS LTD. is −96.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at WELCAST STEELS LTD. (ZWELCAST)?
Revenue at WELCAST STEELS LTD. is growing −94.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −21.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at WELCAST STEELS LTD. (ZWELCAST)?
Earnings per share at WELCAST STEELS LTD. are growing +631% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does WELCAST STEELS LTD. (ZWELCAST) carry?
The net debt of WELCAST STEELS LTD. is ₹12.4M (fiscal year 2021, ≈ 0.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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