HMM Co Ltd (011200) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of HMM Co Ltd stock KRW 30,253, price KRW 22,800, upside +32.7%, quality 40 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 12,653 KRW – 40,263 KRW · fair‑value band 23,021 KRW – 37,816 KRW · the 22,800 KRW price screens below the 30,253 KRW fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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HMM Co.,Ltd, an integrated logistics company, provides shipping and logistics services in Japan and internationally.
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The company offers container services for general, reefer, oversized, and dangerous cargo; bulk liners; trampers that include Cape, Panamax, Supramax, and Handy; tankers, such as crude and product tankers, and LNG carriers; and heavy lifts and project carriers.
It also operates container terminals and provides intermodal services using rails, barges, and trucks.
In addition, the company offers digital solutions, such as Hi-Quote online reservation platform; HMM eBL; vendor partners; and invoice payments, as well as interfaces, including API, HMM EDI, HMM e-Service, and HMM Chatbot.
The company was formerly known as Hyundai Merchant Marine Co.,Ltd. and changed its name to HMM Co.,Ltd in March 2020. HMM Co.,Ltd was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Seoul, South Korea.
Stock analysis
HMM Co Ltd (011200) currently trades at 22,800 KRW, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 30,253 KRW, implying the stock looks roughly 25% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 36,725 KRW per share, and 18 of the 26 models we run sit above the 22,800 KRW price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 8,606 KRW, and 8 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 23,021 KRW (bear) to 37,816 KRW (bull), the price of 22,800 KRW sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
HMM Co Ltd reported revenue of 10.9T KRW in FY2025 versus 13.8T KRW in FY2021, a compound −5.7%/yr. Reported net income was 1.9T KRW in FY2025, compounding −23.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 21.5T KRW (≈ $15.8B) Large · P/E ratio 15.0 · P/S ratio 1.86 · EPS (TTM) 1,519 KRW · Dividend yield 3.1% · Net margin 12.4% · Return on equity 5.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 19.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at 33%, 011200 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear23,021 KRWFair Value 30,253 KRWBull37,816 KRW
Price 22,800 KRW · Upside +32.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (695.17 KRW per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−16.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.8% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in KRW ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in KRW: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−15.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−18.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 13%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.3%/yr over ~7Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−2.0%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (South Korea: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.0% a year for the price and −2.5% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Moderate position rests on fleet renewal with LNG dual-fuel vessels for a hub-and-spoke network, yet no durable advantages are visible and high borrowings already exceed 6 trillion won.
Main risk: Aggressive fleet expansion by larger carriers such as MSC could increase global container capacity significantly beyond demand growth, pressuring HMM's freight rates and margins given its heavy reliance on the container segment.
Bull case: By accelerating diversification into bulk carriers, optimising feeder networks and deploying KI navigation to cut fuel costs, HMM could strengthen its competitive position and stabilise earnings despite container oversupply pressures.
Bear case: If larger peers add capacity aggressively and demand growth remains weak, HMM's focus on large container vessels could cause lower rates, reduced utilisation and margin pressure in its main business.
HMM is ordering eight large LNG dual-fuel container ships plus four feeders in a 2.1 trillion won deal that lifts this year’s total fleet spend past 6 trillion won. The vessels support a hub-and-spoke network and cut emissions by over 23 percent, yet total borrowings now exceed 6 trillion won. Will the long-term capacity build strengthen earnings more than the added debt weighs on financial flexibility?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Marine Shipping · 222 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+32.7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)5.2% · Below median
Return on assets5.6% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)12.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)10.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)29.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "HMM Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/011200
Frequently asked questions
Is HMM Co Ltd (011200) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 30,253 KRW versus a price of 22,800 KRW, about +33% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 011200?
Our model-based fair value for HMM Co Ltd is 30,253 KRW (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 22,800 KRW.
What is the quality score of 011200?
HMM Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for HMM Co Ltd (011200)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 30,253 KRW (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 23,021 KRW, optimistic scenario 37,816 KRW. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the HMM Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 30,253 KRW, about +33% upside versus a price of 22,800 KRW (undervalued). Cautious scenario 23,021 KRW, optimistic scenario 37,816 KRW. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of HMM Co Ltd (011200)?
HMM Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 11.5T KRW (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does HMM Co Ltd pay a dividend?
HMM Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 3.07% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into HMM Co Ltd (011200)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, HMM Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -2.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.2 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 011200 use?
Our models discount HMM Co Ltd at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.71, country premium for South Korea. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For HMM Co Ltd that is -2.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has HMM Co Ltd (011200) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at HMM Co Ltd grew +11.2 % a year. The price currently implies -2.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of HMM Co Ltd (011200) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into HMM Co Ltd (-2.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of HMM Co Ltd (011200)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.93 %: that much free cash flow HMM Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of HMM Co Ltd (011200)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For HMM Co Ltd it is 30,253 KRW per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of 22,800 KRW. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is HMM Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, 011200 trades below its calculated fair value: price 22,800 KRW, fair value 30,253 KRW, a gap of about +33% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 011200?
No. The price is what the market pays today (22,800 KRW); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (30,253 KRW). For HMM Co Ltd the two are 7,453 KRW per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is HMM Co Ltd worth?
The market values HMM Co Ltd at about 21.5T KRW (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is 22,800 KRW; our models calculate a fair value of 30,253 KRW per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 011200?
Our models span a range for HMM Co Ltd: cautious scenario 23,021 KRW, base 30,253 KRW, optimistic 37,816 KRW per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price 22,800 KRW). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 011200?
HMM Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.0 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 30,253 KRW is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 12.2 (reported for FY2025: 11.5). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2020 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 7.5. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 7.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of HMM Co Ltd (011200)?
Balance-sheet figures for HMM Co Ltd (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 5.2%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 011200 from its 52-week high?
HMM Co Ltd trades at 22,800 KRW, about 7% below its 52-week high of 24,500 KRW and 26% above the low of 18,103 KRW (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 30,253 KRW is for.
Which stocks are comparable to HMM Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft,, Shanghai International Port (Group) Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is HMM Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price 22,800 KRW, calculated fair value 30,253 KRW (+33%), Quality Score 40/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 011200 calculated?
We run HMM Co Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 30,253 KRW, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. HMM Co Ltd currently trades 25% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of HMM Co Ltd (011200)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was 22,800 KRW. Our model-based fair value is 30,253 KRW, about +33% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with HMM Co Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (40/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price sits below our cautious bear case: the market assumes less than even our pessimistic scenario. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of HMM Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of HMM Co Ltd (011200)?
The market capitalisation of HMM Co Ltd is 21.5T KRW (≈ $15.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of HMM Co Ltd (011200)?
The price-to-sales ratio of HMM Co Ltd is 1.86 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of HMM Co Ltd (011200)?
Earnings per share at HMM Co Ltd are 1,519 KRW (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of HMM Co Ltd (011200)?
The dividend yield of HMM Co Ltd is 3.1% (payout 48.9%, on adjusted earnings, reported 46.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of HMM Co Ltd (011200)?
The net margin of HMM Co Ltd is 12.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of HMM Co Ltd (011200)?
The return on equity (ROE) of HMM Co Ltd is 5.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of HMM Co Ltd (011200)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of HMM Co Ltd is 19.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of HMM Co Ltd (011200)?
The operating margin of HMM Co Ltd is 10.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at HMM Co Ltd (011200)?
Revenue at HMM Co Ltd is growing +29.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −16.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at HMM Co Ltd (011200)?
Earnings per share at HMM Co Ltd are growing −5.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does HMM Co Ltd (011200) carry?
The net debt of HMM Co Ltd is 504B KRW (fiscal year 2020, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026