Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Saudi Basic Industries Corp stock SAR 36.26, price SAR 48.06, that is 24.6% below the price, quality 47 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 43.00 SAR – 109.08 SAR · fair‑value band 25.64 SAR – 46.88 SAR · the 48.06 SAR price screens above the 36.26 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Saudi Basic Industries Corporation manufactures, markets, and distributes chemicals, polymers, plastics, and agri-nutrients in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, China, the Americas, Europe, Africa, rest of Asia, and internationally. The company operates in two segments: Petrochemicals and Agri-Nutrients.
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It provides chemical products from hydrocarbon feedstock, including methane, ethane, propane, butane, and light naphtha; and olefins, methanol, aromatics, glycols, carbon dioxide, and methyl tert-butyl ether.
The company also offers polyethylene products, including linear low-density polyethylene, low-density polyethylene, and high-density polyethylene; polypropylene products, such as homo, random, and impact polypropylene, as well as polypropylene compounds, homo polymer, random copolymer, impact copolymer, and specialty automotive grades; specialties products comprising resins, compounds and copolymers, and various thermosets and additives under the NORYL, ULTEM, EXTEM, and SILTEM brands; and polycarbonate, polyvinyl chloride, polyethylene terephthalate, polystyrene, and acrylonitrile butadiene styrene.
In addition, it provides a range of fertilizer products, including urea, ammonia, and phosphate, as well as compound fertilizers. The company was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Basic Industries Corporation operates as a subsidiary of Aramco Chemicals Company.
Stock analysis
Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010) currently trades at 48.06 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 36.26 SAR, 25% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 45.85 SAR per share, and 3 of the 13 models we run sit above the 48.06 SAR price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 13.62 SAR, and 10 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 25.64 SAR (bear) to 46.88 SAR (bull), the price of 48.06 SAR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Saudi Basic Industries Corp reported revenue of 117B SAR in FY2025 versus 175B SAR in FY2021, a compound −9.7%/yr. Reported net income was −25.8B SAR in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 144B SAR (≈ $38.4B) Large · P/S ratio 1.35 · EPS (TTM) 2.19 SAR · Dividend yield 5.4% · Net margin −22.1% · Return on equity 0.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.6% (5-year average) · Operating margin 7.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 18 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at −25%, 2010 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear25.64 SARFair Value 36.26 SARBull46.88 SAR
Price 48.06 SAR · Downside -24.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF35.36 SAR49.30 SAR76.00 SAR80
Growth DCF37.04 SAR50.68 SAR74.83 SAR78
5Y EBITDA Exit34.94 SAR50.74 SAR71.68 SAR75
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF35.36 SAR49.30 SAR76.00 SAR80
5Y Revenue Exit22.45 SAR29.12 SAR38.75 SAR74
5Y EBITDA Exit34.94 SAR50.74 SAR71.68 SAR75
10Y Revenue Exit26.71 SAR32.21 SAR37.84 SAR68
10Y EBITDA Exit34.82 SAR45.85 SAR57.57 SAR70
Earnings-Based
EPV11.91 SAR13.62 SAR15.14 SAR74
Multiples
EV/EBIT12.82 SAR18.13 SAR23.44 SAR65
EV/EBITDA34.95 SAR47.63 SAR60.32 SAR67
EV/Revenue10.70 SAR16.61 SAR22.53 SAR53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)18.41 SAR24.66 SAR36.81 SAR54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF37.04 SAR50.68 SAR74.83 SAR78
Rev-Margin DCF22.45 SAR29.87 SAR39.26 SAR74
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder11.91 SAR13.62 SAR15.14 SAR72
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.23/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−16.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−14.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.4% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
3.9% (2020) → 3.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.7% a year for the price and +5.1% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Large scale provides a base for technology licensing in polyolefins, yet sustained negative profitability and returns indicate a weak durable advantage in the chemicals sector.
Main risk: Rivals such as Dow, ExxonMobil and Sinopec could offer alternative polyolefin grades that match or undercut SABIC products, pressuring prices and margins in its core chemicals and polymers business.
Bull case: By accelerating its shift to circular and specialty materials while leveraging AI-driven operations and new licensing deals, SABIC could capture growth in high-performance applications and improve returns despite competitive pressures.
Bear case: If overcapacity from Asian producers persists and sustainability rules tighten further, SABIC might face sustained margin erosion, continued asset divestments and weaker overall performance in its core petrochemicals business.
SABIC recently signed a licensing deal that lets Technip Energies offer its Clean Tubular Reactor technology worldwide for LDPE plants. The company is also lining up sukuk financing for a large project pipeline while still dealing with volume swings from supply chain issues tied to regional tensions. Does wider technology reach strengthen its position in specialties and polyolefins enough to balance those cyclical pressures, or do the disruptions keep limiting overall performance?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Chemicals · 336 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside−24.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)0.4% · Below median
Return on assets−10.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−19.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)7.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−3.1% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)5.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.17× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.12× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)1.35× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)17.1× · Cheaper than median
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Is Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 36.26 SAR versus a price of 48.06 SAR, about 25% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2010?
Our model-based fair value for Saudi Basic Industries Corp is 36.26 SAR (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 48.06 SAR.
What is the quality score of 2010?
Saudi Basic Industries Corp has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 36.26 SAR (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario 25.64 SAR, optimistic scenario 46.88 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Saudi Basic Industries Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 36.26 SAR, about 25% lower versus a price of 48.06 SAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 25.64 SAR, optimistic scenario 46.88 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010)?
Saudi Basic Industries Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 107B SAR (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Saudi Basic Industries Corp pay a dividend?
Saudi Basic Industries Corp currently shows a dividend yield of 5.41% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Saudi Basic Industries Corp pays a dividend of 2.60 SAR per share a year, a dividend yield of 5.4%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 12, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2002. The payout ratio is 119% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.08 times. Our assessment: Payout strained. The dividend exceeds reported earnings (though reported profit is often depressed by one-off charges), and free cash flow only just covers it (or coverage is unknown). Not an emergency, but little room for error.
What growth is priced into Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Saudi Basic Industries Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +2.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.1 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2010 use?
Our models discount Saudi Basic Industries Corp at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.10, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Saudi Basic Industries Corp that is +2.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Saudi Basic Industries Corp grew -0.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +2.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Saudi Basic Industries Corp (+2.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.84 %: that much free cash flow Saudi Basic Industries Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Saudi Basic Industries Corp it is 36.26 SAR per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of 48.06 SAR. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Saudi Basic Industries Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, 2010 trades above its calculated fair value: price 48.06 SAR, fair value 36.26 SAR, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2010?
No. The price is what the market pays today (48.06 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (36.26 SAR). For Saudi Basic Industries Corp the two are 11.80 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Saudi Basic Industries Corp worth?
The market values Saudi Basic Industries Corp at about 144B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is 48.06 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 36.26 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2010?
Our models span a range for Saudi Basic Industries Corp: cautious scenario 25.64 SAR, base 36.26 SAR, optimistic 46.88 SAR per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price 48.06 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010)?
Balance-sheet figures for Saudi Basic Industries Corp (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 0.4%, debt of 0.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2010 from its 52-week high?
Saudi Basic Industries Corp trades at 48.06 SAR, about 22% below its 52-week high of 61.25 SAR and 12% above the low of 43.00 SAR (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 36.26 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Saudi Basic Industries Corp?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BASF SE, Dow Inc, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group, Zangge Mining Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Saudi Basic Industries Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price 48.06 SAR, calculated fair value 36.26 SAR (−25%), Quality Score 47/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2010 calculated?
We run Saudi Basic Industries Corp through 13 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 36.26 SAR builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Saudi Basic Industries Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was 48.06 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 36.26 SAR, about 25% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Saudi Basic Industries Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (46.88 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (47/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (25.64 SAR to 46.88 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Saudi Basic Industries Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010)?
The market capitalisation of Saudi Basic Industries Corp is 144B SAR (≈ $38.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Saudi Basic Industries Corp is 1.35 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010)?
Earnings per share at Saudi Basic Industries Corp are 2.19 SAR. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010)?
The dividend yield of Saudi Basic Industries Corp is 5.4% (payout 119%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010)?
The net margin of Saudi Basic Industries Corp is −22.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Saudi Basic Industries Corp is 0.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Saudi Basic Industries Corp is 4.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010)?
The operating margin of Saudi Basic Industries Corp is 7.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010)?
Revenue at Saudi Basic Industries Corp is growing −3.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −14.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010)?
Earnings per share at Saudi Basic Industries Corp are growing +21.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010) carry?
The net debt of Saudi Basic Industries Corp is 9.3B SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 7, 2026