AAON Inc (AAON) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of AAON Inc stock $35.19, price $54.42, that is 35.3% below the price, quality 40 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $31.27 – $148.15 · fair‑value band $24.63 – $45.75 · the $54.42 price screens above the $35.19 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 1, 2026.
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AAON, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in engineering, manufacturing, marketing, and selling air conditioning and heating equipment in the United States and Canada.
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The company operates through three segments: AAON Oklahoma, AAON Coil Products, and BASX. It offers rooftop units, data center cooling solutions, cleanroom systems, packaged outdoor mechanical rooms, air handling units, makeup air units, energy recovery units, condensing units, geothermal/water-source heat pumps, coils, and controls.
The company markets and sells its products to retail, manufacturing, educational, lodging, supermarket, data centers, medical and pharmaceutical, and other commercial industries.
It sells its products through a network of independent manufacturer representative organizations and internal sales force, as well as online. AAON, Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
Stock analysis
AAON Inc (AAON) currently trades at $54.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $35.19, 35% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $26.26 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the $54.42 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $5.20, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $24.63 (bear) to $45.75 (bull), the price of $54.42 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
AAON Inc reported revenue of $1.4B in FY2025 versus $535M in FY2021, a compound +28.2%/yr. Reported net income was $108M in FY2025, compounding +16.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $6.2B Mid · P/E ratio 28.6 · P/S ratio 3.21 · EPS (TTM) $1.90 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 8.2% · Return on equity 17.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 63% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −35%, AAON screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$24.63Fair Value $35.19Bull$45.75
Price $54.42 · Downside -35.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.27 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income$9.57$10.76$14.0176
EPV$8.18$9.99$11.5274
ROIC Compounder$8.18$9.99$12.3872
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$8.87$38.38$52.4764
Lynch FV$9.86$14.08$18.3061
PEG = 1.0$9.86$14.08$18.3057
EPV$8.18$9.99$11.5274
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$3.14$5.74$8.0167
DDM Multi-Stage$3.14$5.20$6.1267
Multiples
P/E Multiple$20.55$27.40$34.2563
P/S Multiple$16.64$22.18$27.7358
P/B Multiple$29.85$39.80$49.7555
EV/EBIT$18.41$26.26$34.1165
EV/EBITDA$22.25$31.38$40.5167
EV/Revenue$11.66$18.87$26.0853
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$0.6200$0.9400$1.1854
Economic Profit
Residual Income$9.57$10.76$14.0176
ROIC Compounder$8.18$9.99$12.3872
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$16.42$23.46$30.5067
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a year distorted by one-off effects.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors bought shares worth $109,584, most recently on Sep 15, 2026. Over the same period, 5 people sold shares worth $16.3M. Buying cluster
BuyDavid Raymond StewartDirector1,000 shares at $74.66$74,660Sep 15, 2026
BuyMatthew ShaubExecutive Vice President457 shares at $76.42$34,924Aug 28, 2026
SaleGary D FieldsDirector6× since Nov 11, 2025: 120,824 shares, avg. $129.45$15.6MMay 29, 2026
SaleGordon Douglas WichmanExecutive Vice President3,000 shares at $140.39$421,170May 26, 2026
SaleCasey KidwellChief Administration Officer2× since Mar 12, 2026: 8,378 shares, avg. $108.18$906,321May 14, 2026
SaleMatthew Joseph TobolskiChief Executive Officer, Director8,000 shares at $135.37$1.1MMay 13, 2026
BuyStephen E WakefieldExecutive Vice President2,000 shares at $81.55$163,100Dec 12, 2025
Plan buyStephen E WakefieldExecutive Vice President4,141 shares at $77.59$321,300Dec 12, 2025
Plus 18 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.9% a year
Revenue growth 35 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+17.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12.2% vs 6.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 11%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: AAON shows strength in a record backlog from data center cooling demand yet suffers from persistent gross margin pressure due to outsourcing and new facility ramp costs together with negative operating cash flow.
Main risk: Larger HVAC manufacturers such as Carrier and Trane could add capacity in data center cooling and erode AAON's pricing power or share in its BASX segment.
Bull case: By focusing on custom-engineered solutions for hyperscale customers AAON could sustain differentiation and defend margins against larger rivals entering data center cooling.
Bear case: If larger competitors rapidly scale capacity in data center cooling AAON could face sustained margin pressure and slower backlog conversion in its key growth segment.
AAON has built a record backlog near two billion dollars on surging data center cooling demand that doubled sales in the segment. At the same time gross margins have come under pressure from outsourcing and ramp costs at new facilities. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will scale efficiencies restore margins ahead of the growth runway or will expansion costs keep weighing on results?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Products & Equipment · 254 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−35.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)17.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.4% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)8.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)11.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)101.2% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.45× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)28.6× · Pricier than median
P/B6.93× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)3.21× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA22.0× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.95× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 14
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 25
PAST (return on equity)69· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)78· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)15· sector 43
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AAON Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AAON
Frequently asked questions
Is AAON Inc (AAON) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $35.19 versus a price of $54.42, about 35% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AAON?
Our model-based fair value for AAON Inc is $35.19 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $54.42.
What is the quality score of AAON?
AAON Inc has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AAON Inc (AAON)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $35.19 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $24.63, optimistic scenario $45.75. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AAON Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $35.19, about 35% lower versus a price of $54.42 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $24.63, optimistic scenario $45.75. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AAON Inc (AAON)?
AAON Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
Does AAON Inc pay a dividend?
AAON Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.74% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 1, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of AAON Inc (AAON)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AAON Inc it is $35.19 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of $54.42. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AAON Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, AAON trades above its calculated fair value: price $54.42, fair value $35.19, a gap of about −35% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AAON?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($54.42); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($35.19). For AAON Inc the two are $19.23 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AAON Inc worth?
The market values AAON Inc at about $6.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is $54.42; our models calculate a fair value of $35.19 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AAON?
Our models span a range for AAON Inc: cautious scenario $24.63, base $35.19, optimistic $45.75 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price $54.42). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AAON?
AAON Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.6 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $35.19 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 6.9, P/S 3.2, EV/EBITDA 22.0.
What is the PEG ratio of AAON?
The PEG ratio of AAON Inc is 0.95 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 1, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of AAON Inc (AAON)?
Balance-sheet figures for AAON Inc (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 17.3%, debt of 0.45 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AAON from its 52-week high?
AAON Inc trades at $54.42, about 63% below its 52-week high of $148.15 and at the low of $54.42 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $35.19 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AAON Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Johnson Controls International plc, Trane Technologies plc, Carrier Global Corporation, Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AAON Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price $54.42, calculated fair value $35.19 (−35%), Quality Score 40/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AAON calculated?
We run AAON Inc through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $35.19, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. AAON Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AAON Inc (AAON)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $54.42. Our model-based fair value is $35.19, about 35% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AAON Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($45.75). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($24.63 to $45.75) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of AAON Inc (AAON) come from?
Earnings per share at AAON Inc grew +11.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.1 %, EBIT margin −2.8 %, tax rate +2.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of AAON Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of AAON Inc (AAON)?
The market capitalisation of AAON Inc is $6.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AAON Inc (AAON)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AAON Inc is 3.21 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AAON Inc (AAON)?
Earnings per share at AAON Inc are $1.90 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of AAON Inc (AAON)?
The dividend yield of AAON Inc is 0.7% (payout 21.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of AAON Inc (AAON)?
The net margin of AAON Inc is 8.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AAON Inc (AAON)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AAON Inc is 17.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AAON Inc (AAON)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AAON Inc is 15.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AAON Inc (AAON)?
The operating margin of AAON Inc is 11.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AAON Inc (AAON)?
Revenue at AAON Inc is growing +101% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AAON Inc (AAON)?
Earnings per share at AAON Inc are growing +258% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does AAON Inc (AAON) generate?
The free cash flow of AAON Inc is −$191M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does AAON Inc (AAON) carry?
The net debt of AAON Inc is $425M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 1, 2026