Adobe Systems Incorporated (ADBE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Adobe Systems Incorporated stock $464, price $248, upside +86.6%, quality 94 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $193.41 – $688.37 · fair‑value band $309.50 – $602.84 · the $248.48 price screens below the $463.72 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Adobe Inc. operates as a technology company worldwide. The Digital Media segment offers products and services that enable individuals, teams, and enterprises to create, publish, and promote content.
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This segment serves photographers, video editors, graphic and experience designers, game developers, content creators, students, marketers, business owners, knowledge workers, and consumers.
The Digital Experience segment provides an integrated platform; and products, services, and solutions that enable brands and businesses to create, manage, execute, measure, monetize, and optimize customer experiences from analytics to commerce.
This segment serves marketers, advertisers, agencies, publishers, merchandisers, merchants, web analysts, data scientists, developers, and executives across the C-suite.
The Publishing and Advertising segment offers e-learning, technical document publishing, web conferencing, document and forms platform, web application development, printing, and Adobe Advertising solutions.
It also provides consulting, training, customer management, technical support, and learning services. The company offers its solutions to enterprise customers, and businesses and consumers; and licenses its products to end-user customers through app stores and website at adobe.com.
It markets and distributes its products through distributors, retailers, software developers, mobile app stores, systems integrators, independent software vendors, value-added resellers, and original equipment and hardware manufacturers.
The company also provides an online visibility management and content marketing software-as-a-service platform. The company has a strategic alliance with HUMAIN for the development of generative AI models and AI-powered applications.
The company was formerly known as Adobe Systems Incorporated and changed its name to Adobe Inc. in October 2018. Adobe Inc. was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.
Stock analysis
Adobe Systems Incorporated (ADBE) currently trades at $248.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $463.72, implying the stock looks roughly 46% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $547.14 per share, and 19 of the 22 models we run sit above the $248.48 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $149.57, and 3 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $309.50 (bear) to $602.84 (bull), the price of $248.48 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 94/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Adobe Systems Incorporated reported revenue of $23.8B in FY2025 versus $15.8B in FY2021, a compound +10.8%/yr. Reported net income was $7.1B in FY2025, compounding +10.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $98.1B Large · P/E ratio 13.9 · P/S ratio 3.78 · EPS (TTM) $17.91 · Net margin 28.1% · Return on equity 61.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 23.6% · Operating margin 34.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 98 out of 100 (high confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at 87%, ADBE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$309.50Fair Value $463.72Bull$602.84
Price $248.48 · Upside +86.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 11 months old). Earnings retained since then ($16.68 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
BuyDavid A RicksDirector10,000 shares at $194.51$1.9MJun 25, 2026
SaleDaniel DurnEVP & CFO2× since Jan 27, 2026: 2,982 shares, avg. $273.87$816,678Apr 20, 2026
Plus 22 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.98/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +17.4% a year
Revenue growth 39 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+18.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+18.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10.7% vs 29.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.33% → 37%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−1.9%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.2% a year for the price and +6.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Strong ecosystem and margins underpin a durable advantage while weak insider signals and the threat of agentic tools reducing paid seats remain the main weaknesses.
Main risk: Generative AI tools from firms like Anthropic or OpenAI could reduce demand for core products such as Photoshop and Creative Cloud by enabling text-prompt creation of images and designs, squeezing subscription revenue and margins.
Bull case: Adobe could integrate its own generative AI tools like Firefly more deeply into Creative Cloud to retain professional users who value enterprise-grade safety, compliance and ecosystem integration over standalone AI chatbots.
Bear case: Widespread adoption of free or low-cost generative AI alternatives could erode Adobe's subscription base, commoditise creative software and force sustained price cuts or reduced feature differentiation across its product lines.
Adobe keeps adding users at scale while building substantial AI-driven recurring revenue on top of its core subscription base. Yet concerns linger that agentic tools could reduce the need for paid seats even as they open new workflows. Our models see the business as undervalued. Will the company turn its user growth and AI integrations into durable acceleration of paid adoption, or will standalone AI alternatives cap the upside?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 634 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score94 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+86.6% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)61.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets24.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)28.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)34.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)12.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.53× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)13.9× · Cheapest 25%
P/B8.44× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Adobe Systems Incorporated Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ADBE
Frequently asked questions
Is Adobe Systems Incorporated (ADBE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $463.72 versus a price of $248.48, about +87% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ADBE?
Our model-based fair value for Adobe Systems Incorporated is $463.72 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $248.48.
What is the quality score of ADBE?
Adobe Systems Incorporated has a Quality Score of 94/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Adobe Systems Incorporated (ADBE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $463.72 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $309.50, optimistic scenario $602.84. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Adobe Systems Incorporated stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $463.72, about +87% upside versus a price of $248.48 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $309.50, optimistic scenario $602.84. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Adobe Systems Incorporated (ADBE)?
Adobe Systems Incorporated reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $26.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Adobe Systems Incorporated (ADBE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Adobe Systems Incorporated would have to grow free cash flow by -1.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.1 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ADBE use?
Our models discount Adobe Systems Incorporated at 10.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.42, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Adobe Systems Incorporated that is -1.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Adobe Systems Incorporated (ADBE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Adobe Systems Incorporated grew +13.1 % a year. The price currently implies -1.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Adobe Systems Incorporated (ADBE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Adobe Systems Incorporated (-1.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Adobe Systems Incorporated (ADBE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.04 %: that much free cash flow Adobe Systems Incorporated produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Adobe Systems Incorporated (ADBE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Adobe Systems Incorporated it is $463.72 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $248.48. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Adobe Systems Incorporated stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, ADBE trades below its calculated fair value: price $248.48, fair value $463.72, a gap of about +87% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ADBE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($248.48); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($463.72). For Adobe Systems Incorporated the two are $215.24 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Adobe Systems Incorporated worth?
The market values Adobe Systems Incorporated at about $98.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $248.48; our models calculate a fair value of $463.72 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ADBE?
Our models span a range for Adobe Systems Incorporated: cautious scenario $309.50, base $463.72, optimistic $602.84 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $248.48). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ADBE?
Adobe Systems Incorporated trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.9 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $463.72 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 46.3. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 8.4, P/S 3.8, EV/EBITDA 10.0.
What is the PEG ratio of ADBE?
The PEG ratio of Adobe Systems Incorporated is 0.58 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Adobe Systems Incorporated (ADBE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Adobe Systems Incorporated (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 61.9%, debt of 0.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 94/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ADBE from its 52-week high?
Adobe Systems Incorporated trades at $248.48, about 31% below its 52-week high of $357.53 and 28% above the low of $193.41 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $463.72 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Adobe Systems Incorporated?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Shopify Inc, Salesforce, Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Adobe Systems Incorporated stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $248.48, calculated fair value $463.72 (+87%), Quality Score 94/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ADBE calculated?
We run Adobe Systems Incorporated through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $463.72, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0% above its aggregate fair value. Adobe Systems Incorporated currently trades 46% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Adobe Systems Incorporated (ADBE)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $248.48. Our model-based fair value is $463.72, about +87% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Adobe Systems Incorporated right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (94/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($309.50). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range ($309.50 to $602.84) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Adobe Systems Incorporated (ADBE) come from?
Earnings per share at Adobe Systems Incorporated grew +29.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +19.5 %, EBIT margin +6.7 %, tax rate +0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Adobe Systems Incorporated
How large is the market capitalisation of Adobe Systems Incorporated (ADBE)?
The market capitalisation of Adobe Systems Incorporated is $98.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Adobe Systems Incorporated (ADBE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Adobe Systems Incorporated is 3.78 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Adobe Systems Incorporated (ADBE)?
Earnings per share at Adobe Systems Incorporated are $17.91 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Adobe Systems Incorporated (ADBE)?
The net margin of Adobe Systems Incorporated is 28.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Adobe Systems Incorporated (ADBE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Adobe Systems Incorporated is 61.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Adobe Systems Incorporated (ADBE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Adobe Systems Incorporated is 23.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Adobe Systems Incorporated (ADBE)?
The operating margin of Adobe Systems Incorporated is 34.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Adobe Systems Incorporated (ADBE)?
Revenue at Adobe Systems Incorporated is growing +12.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Adobe Systems Incorporated (ADBE)?
Earnings per share at Adobe Systems Incorporated are growing +10.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Adobe Systems Incorporated (ADBE) carry?
The net debt of Adobe Systems Incorporated is $1.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 5, 2026