Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Automatic Data Processing Inc stock $150, price $307, that is 51.0% below the price, quality 63 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Automatic Data Processing Inc
ADP · USOur calculation puts a fair price 51% below what the stock costs today.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $176.24 – $314.38 · fair‑value band $112.14 – $208.90 · the $307.14 price screens above the $150.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Company profile
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. provides cloud-based human capital management (HCM) solutions worldwide.
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It operates in two segments, Employer Services and Professional Employer Organization (PEO). The Employer Services segment offers strategic, cloud-based platforms, and human resources (HR) outsourcing solutions.
This segment's offerings include RUN Powered by ADP, a software platform for small business payroll, HR, and compliance; ADP Workforce Now, a HCM solution used across mid-sized and large businesses to manage employees; and ADP Lyric HCM, a solution for HR management, payroll, workforce management, talent, and data analytics.
The PEO Services segment provides HR and employment administration outsourcing solutions under ADP TotalSource name to businesses through a co-employment model.
The segment also provides guidance, user-friendly technology, comprehensive employee benefits, and a risk management, safety, and workers' compensation program. The company was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Roseland, New Jersey.
Stock analysis
Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP) currently trades at $307.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $150.40, 51% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $206.80 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $307.14 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $61.32, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $112.14 (bear) to $208.90 (bull), the price of $307.14 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Automatic Data Processing Inc reported revenue of $21.9B in FY2026 versus $16.5B in FY2022, a compound +7.4%/yr. Reported net income was $4.4B in FY2026, compounding +10.6%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $123B Large · P/E ratio 28.1 · P/S ratio 5.59 · EPS (TTM) $10.94 · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 20.1% · Return on equity 72.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 86 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 65% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −51%, ADP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
All 26 models by family
Quality Score breakdown
It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.
Insider trades
In the last 6 months, 10 officers or directors sold shares worth $20.0M and none bought.
- SaleJonathan S LehbergerCorp. VP770 shares at $300.35$231,270Nov 4, 202610b5-1 plan
- SaleCarlos A RodriguezDirector2× since Nov 2, 2026: 13,936 shares, avg. $300.64$4.2MNov 4, 202610b5-1 plan
- SaleMichael A BonartiCorporate Vice President7,487 shares at $300.00$2.2MNov 2, 202610b5-1 plan
- SaleVirginia MagliuloExecutive VP2,927 shares at $293.70$859,660Oct 30, 202610b5-1 plan
- SaleJoseph DeSilvaExecutive VP2× since Sep 2, 2026: 7,143 shares, avg. $282.99$2.0MSep 3, 202610b5-1 plan
- SaleMaria BlackPresident & CEO2× since Jan 5, 2026: 30,525 shares, avg. $280.35$8.6MSep 2, 202610b5-1 plan
- SaleChristopher D'AmbrosioCorp. VP5× since Jan 13, 2026: 4,044 shares, avg. $249.02$1.0MSep 2, 202610b5-1 plan
- SaleDavid FoskettCorp. VP2× since Feb 5, 2026: 1,795 shares, avg. $276.18$495,749Sep 2, 202610b5-1 plan
- SaleBrian L. MichaudExecutive VP3× since Feb 6, 2026: 1,968 shares, avg. $227.45$447,630Aug 21, 202610b5-1 plan
- SaleDavid KwonCorp VP4× since Jan 6, 2026: 4,918 shares, avg. $266.79$1.3MAug 20, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus 1 more entries from the last 12 months.
Plus 34 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 5, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Forecast
ADP screens overvalued: fair value 51% below the price. Compare with SAP SE →
Recent news
- Is Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Priced Right for Its Cash Flow?
- Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Faces A 13% Fair Value Gap As Jobs Data And Earnings Impress
- ADP Canada Pay Insights: Pay for Job-Stayers Was Up 3.0% in October
- October Private-Sector Hiring Rises More Than Estimated, ADP Data Show
Compare Automatic Data Processing Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 630 stocks
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Industrials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Return on assets by industry
- Fair value gap by industry
- PEG screener for stocks with fair value
- Undervalued stocks: Industrials
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $246.44 | $463.72 | +88% | vs ADP |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $222.41 | $342.73 | +54% | vs ADP |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $68.78 | $101.25 | +47% | vs ADP |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $354.84 | $459.14 | +29% | vs ADP |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $102.36 | $112.60 | +10% | vs ADP |
| SAP SE SAP | €210.75 | €173.59 | −18% | vs ADP |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $311.43 | $225.48 | −28% | vs ADP |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | $143.75 | $64.96 | −55% | vs ADP |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $269.54 | $73.81 | −73% | vs ADP |
| Datadog, Inc DDOG | $174.60 | $32.52 | −81% | vs ADP |
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Key figures of Automatic Data Processing Inc
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