Smith AO Corporation (AOS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Smith AO Corporation stock $66.22, price $67.07, that is 1.3% below the price, quality 82 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $45.06 – $88.44 · fair‑value band $44.09 – $91.92 · the $67.07 price screens above the $66.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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A. O. Smith Corporation manufactures and markets residential and commercial gas and electric water heaters, boilers, heat pumps, tanks, and water treatment products in North America, China, Europe, and India.
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The company offers water heaters for residences, restaurants, hotels, office buildings, laundries, car washes, and small businesses; boilers for hospitals, schools, hotels, homes, apartments, and condominiums, and other large commercial buildings; and water treatment products comprising point-of-entry water softeners, well water solutions, and whole-home water filtration products, and point-of-use carbon and reverse osmosis products for residences, restaurants, hotels, and offices.
It also provides commercial water treatment and filtration products; expansion tanks, commercial solar water heating systems, swimming pool and spa heaters, and related products and parts; and electric wall-hung, gas tankless, combi-boiler, and heat pump and solar water heaters.
The company offers its products under the A. O. Smith, State, Lochinvar, Hague, Water-Right, Master Water, Atlantic Filter, Impact, and Water Tec brands.
It distributes its products through independent wholesale plumbing distributors, as well as to retail channels consisting of hardware and home center chains, and manufacturer representative firms, as well as offers Aquasana branded products directly to consumers through e-commerce channels; and A. O. Smith branded water treatment products through dealer network and Amazon.
A. O. Smith Corporation was founded in 1874 and is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Stock analysis
Smith AO Corporation (AOS) currently trades at $67.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $66.22, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 1.3%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $70.71 per share, and 8 of the 26 models we run sit above the $67.07 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $18.17, and 18 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $44.09 (bear) to $91.92 (bull), the price of $67.07 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 82/100 (high quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Smith AO Corporation reported revenue of $3.8B in FY2025 versus $3.5B in FY2021, a compound +2.0%/yr. Reported net income was $546M in FY2025, compounding +2.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $9.3B Mid · P/E ratio 17.6 · P/S ratio 2.44 · EPS (TTM) $3.59 · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin 13.0% · Return on equity 27.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 21.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 77 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at −1%, AOS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$44.09Fair Value $66.22Bull$91.92
Price $67.07 · Downside -1.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.83 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
SaleDarrell W. SchuhSVP; President & GM Lochinvar2× since Feb 13, 2026: 1,460 shares, avg. $75.73$110,567Mar 4, 2026
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.2% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+14.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12.0% vs 9.5%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 19%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.7% a year for the price and +0.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: The business benefits from steady replacement demand in its core water heating products, yet thin evidence on moat durability leaves long-term competitive strength uncertain.
Main risk: The risk that the water treatment restructuring mainly adds complexity without meaningful gains would cap returns below the level of the established heater business.
Bull case: By streamlining manufacturing and leveraging its dealer network the company could expand its water treatment margins beyond those of the heater business.
Bear case: If private-label competition intensifies the water treatment segment might remain a lower-margin add-on without meaningful gains from the restructuring.
A. O. Smith draws steady replacement demand from its core water heating products. It recently restructured the water treatment side to simplify manufacturing and brands, targeting several million dollars in annual savings from 2027 onward. Will its distribution strength lift returns in this area above the heater business, or will the moves mainly add complexity without much gain?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 807 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score82 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−1.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)27.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets17.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)13.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)18.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−0.2% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.06× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Smith AO Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AOS
Frequently asked questions
Is Smith AO Corporation (AOS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $66.22 versus a price of $67.07, about 1% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of AOS?
Our model-based fair value for Smith AO Corporation is $66.22 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $67.07.
What is the quality score of AOS?
Smith AO Corporation has a Quality Score of 82/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Smith AO Corporation (AOS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $66.22 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $44.09, optimistic scenario $91.92. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Smith AO Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $66.22, about 1% lower versus a price of $67.07 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $44.09, optimistic scenario $91.92. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Smith AO Corporation (AOS)?
Smith AO Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Smith AO Corporation pay a dividend?
Smith AO Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 2.15% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Smith AO Corporation (AOS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Smith AO Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +7.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.8 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AOS use?
Our models discount Smith AO Corporation at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.11, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Smith AO Corporation that is +7.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Smith AO Corporation (AOS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Smith AO Corporation grew +5.8 % a year. The price currently implies +7.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Smith AO Corporation (AOS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Smith AO Corporation (+7.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Smith AO Corporation (AOS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.88 %: that much free cash flow Smith AO Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Smith AO Corporation (AOS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Smith AO Corporation it is $66.22 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $67.07. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Smith AO Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, AOS trades above its calculated fair value: price $67.07, fair value $66.22, a gap of about −1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AOS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($67.07); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($66.22). For Smith AO Corporation the two are $0.8500 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Smith AO Corporation worth?
The market values Smith AO Corporation at about $9.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $67.07; our models calculate a fair value of $66.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AOS?
Our models span a range for Smith AO Corporation: cautious scenario $44.09, base $66.22, optimistic $91.92 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $67.07). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AOS?
Smith AO Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.6 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $66.22 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2023, FY2024, FY2025 ex one-offs: 25.7. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 5.0, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 11.8.
What is the PEG ratio of AOS?
The PEG ratio of Smith AO Corporation is 1.52 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Smith AO Corporation (AOS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Smith AO Corporation (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 27.0%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 82/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AOS from its 52-week high?
Smith AO Corporation trades at $67.07, about 16% below its 52-week high of $80.02 and 21% above the low of $55.34 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $66.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Smith AO Corporation?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value SIE, GE Vernova Inc, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Smith AO Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $67.07, calculated fair value $66.22 (−1%), Quality Score 82/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AOS calculated?
We run Smith AO Corporation through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $66.22, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Smith AO Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Smith AO Corporation (AOS)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $67.07. Our model-based fair value is $66.22, about 1% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Smith AO Corporation right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($44.09 to $91.92) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Smith AO Corporation (AOS) come from?
Earnings per share at Smith AO Corporation grew +10.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.2 %, EBIT margin +2.7 %, tax rate +0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Smith AO Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Smith AO Corporation (AOS)?
The market capitalisation of Smith AO Corporation is $9.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Smith AO Corporation (AOS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Smith AO Corporation is 2.44 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Smith AO Corporation (AOS)?
Earnings per share at Smith AO Corporation are $3.59 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Smith AO Corporation (AOS)?
The dividend yield of Smith AO Corporation is 2.1% (payout 40.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Smith AO Corporation (AOS)?
The net margin of Smith AO Corporation is 13.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Smith AO Corporation (AOS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Smith AO Corporation is 27.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Smith AO Corporation (AOS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Smith AO Corporation is 21.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Smith AO Corporation (AOS)?
The operating margin of Smith AO Corporation is 18.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Smith AO Corporation (AOS)?
Revenue at Smith AO Corporation is growing −0.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Smith AO Corporation (AOS)?
Earnings per share at Smith AO Corporation are growing −1.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Smith AO Corporation (AOS) carry?
The net debt of Smith AO Corporation is $17.6M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026