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Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Aozora Bank Ltd stock $4.52, price $4.75, that is 4.8% below the price, quality 61 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services US · ADR · Based in Japan

AB Aozora Bank Ltd logo Some data Nov 7, 2026

Aozora Bank Ltd

AOZOY · US
Fairly valued, in an uptrend

The stock costs about what our calculation considers fair.

Quality 61/100
Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +12.4 %/yr in JPY)
Highly profitable · 21.9% net margin (TTM)
3.0% dividend yield · Low payout
Last quarter vs. a year ago: revenue +21%, profit +82%.
Fair value $4.52 · Fairly valued (−4.8%)
Mixed vs. peers (7/13)
Moderate moat 60/100 · thin data
Some data
⚠ Thinly traded
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$5.73 $2.50 Fair Value $4.52 Jun 2016 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.50 – $5.73 · fair‑value band $4.29 – $5.29 · the $4.75 price screens above the $4.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.

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Company profile

Aozora Bank, Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services in Japan and internationally. It operates through Institutional Banking Group, Structured Finance Group, International Business Group, Customer Relations Group, and Market Group segments.

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The company offers checking accounts, savings accounts, time deposits, deposits-at-notice, non-residents deposits, and negotiable certificates of deposit, as well as deposits in foreign currencies.

It also provides loans on deeds and notes, and overdrafts; corporate, M&A, project, equity, sustainable, LBO, structured, real estate, business recovery, and project financing products; syndicated loans; discount on promissory notes; securities investments, including public, local, and corporate bonds, as well as equity and other securities; domestic and foreign exchange services; and consignment of bonds.

In addition, the company offers foreign currency remittance, liabilities guarantee, securities lending, public bonds underwriting, agency, custody, financial instruments intermediary, securitization, M&A advisory, business succession consulting, business expansion, equity/debt funding, and consulting services.

Further, it is involved in the over-the-counter sale of securities investment trusts and insurance products; and provision of trust services for secured corporate bonds, as well as well as derivative products, including interest rate, foreign exchange, and commodity derivatives.

The company was formerly known as Nippon Fudosan Bank, Limited and changed its name to Aozora Bank, Ltd. in 2001. Aozora Bank, Ltd. was incorporated in 1957 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

Stock analysis

Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY) currently trades at $4.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.52, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 5.1%).

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $5.72 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $4.75 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $2.50, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $4.29 (bear) to $5.29 (bull), the price of $4.75 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Aozora Bank Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥240B in FY2026 versus ¥131B in FY2022, a compound +16.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥27.3B in FY2026, compounding −6.1%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap $2.6B Mid · P/E ratio 13.2 · P/S ratio 1.50 · EPS (TTM) $0.3600 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 11.4% · Return on equity 6.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.1% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 60 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 43% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −5%, AOZOY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $4.29 Fair Value $4.52 Bull $5.29
Price $4.75 · Downside -4.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2190 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $4.38 $4.52 $4.88 76
DDM Multi-Stage $1.41 $2.19 $3.07 66
Gordon GGM $1.41 $2.81 $5.01 65
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $1.41 $2.81 $5.01 65
DDM Multi-Stage $1.41 $2.19 $3.07 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $3.03 $4.04 $5.05 63
P/B Multiple $5.55 $7.40 $9.25 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.64 $3.54 $5.29 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $4.38 $4.52 $4.88 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 61/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 22
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 64
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 100
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 59
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 84
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 66
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 60
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 30
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 92/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.4% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.1%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+29.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+26.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.26.0% vs 7.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.29% → 12%
2026 sits 72% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)

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Note from the team Oct 11, 2026
AI conclusion: The regional bank gains from its joint venture expanding into strategy consulting and corporate investments for smaller companies, yet commoditized services and absent distinctive capabilities remain its core limitation.
Main risk: Stretching into strategy consulting and investment activities without sufficient depth risks weakening focus on core lending and eroding operational effectiveness.
Aozora Bank is expanding beyond traditional lending by partnering with Arthur D. Little Japan on a joint venture that combines strategy consulting with corporate investments for small and midsize companies. This move targets M&A and overseas growth opportunities in a shifting market. Our models see it as overvalued. Does the new partnership build lasting capabilities or stretch the bank into areas where it lacks depth?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 998 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −4.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 6.6% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 0.3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) 21.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 34.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 20.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 3.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.25× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 13.2× · Pricier than median
P/B 0.87× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 2.97× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 3.4× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)27 · sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)26 · sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)59 · sector 53

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Postal Savings Bank of China Co 601658 ¥5.53 ¥7.59 +37% vs AOZOY
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥42.88 ¥52.73 +23% vs AOZOY
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.93 €106.01 +15% vs AOZOY
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.18 €4.49 −27% vs AOZOY
State Bank of India SBIN ₹1,019 ₹736.65 −28% vs AOZOY
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €76.80 €50.44 −34% vs AOZOY
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $9.40 $5.90 −37% vs AOZOY
DBS Group D05 69.72 SGD 40.39 SGD −42% vs AOZOY
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹788.25 ₹406.39 −48% vs AOZOY
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,571 ₹615.63 −61% vs AOZOY

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Aozora Bank Ltd ADR: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aozora Bank Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AOZOY

Frequently asked questions

Is Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.52 versus a price of $4.75, about 5% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of AOZOY?
Our model-based fair value for Aozora Bank Ltd is $4.52 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.75.
What is the quality score of AOZOY?
Aozora Bank Ltd has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.52 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.29, optimistic scenario $5.29. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aozora Bank Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.52, about 5% lower versus a price of $4.75 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $4.29, optimistic scenario $5.29. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY)?
Aozora Bank Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥141B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Aozora Bank Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Aozora Bank Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 2.96% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Aozora Bank Ltd has a dividend yield of 3.0%. The last ex-dividend date was Jun 30, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2013. The payout ratio is 45.3% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aozora Bank Ltd it is $4.52 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $4.75. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Aozora Bank Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, AOZOY trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.75, fair value $4.52, a gap of about −5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AOZOY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.75); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.52). For Aozora Bank Ltd the two are $0.2300 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aozora Bank Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Aozora Bank Ltd at about $2.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $4.75; our models calculate a fair value of $4.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AOZOY?
Our models span a range for Aozora Bank Ltd: cautious scenario $4.29, base $4.52, optimistic $5.29 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $4.75). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AOZOY?
Aozora Bank Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.2 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $4.52 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2018 to 2026), reported earnings: 34.8. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 3.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aozora Bank Ltd (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 6.6%, debt of 1.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AOZOY from its 52-week high?
Aozora Bank Ltd trades at $4.75, about 17% below its 52-week high of $5.73 and 43% above the low of $3.32 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aozora Bank Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aozora Bank Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $4.75, calculated fair value $4.52 (−5%), Quality Score 61/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AOZOY calculated?
We run Aozora Bank Ltd through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $4.52 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Aozora Bank Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $4.75. Our model-based fair value is $4.52, about 5% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aozora Bank Ltd ADR right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY) come from?
Earnings per share at Aozora Bank Ltd grew +7.2 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +22.2 %, EBIT margin −14.2 %, tax rate +2.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Aozora Bank Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY)?
The market capitalisation of Aozora Bank Ltd is $2.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aozora Bank Ltd is 1.50 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY)?
Earnings per share at Aozora Bank Ltd are $0.3600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY)?
The dividend yield of Aozora Bank Ltd is 3.0% (payout 39.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY)?
The net margin of Aozora Bank Ltd is 11.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aozora Bank Ltd is 6.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aozora Bank Ltd is 0.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY)?
The operating margin of Aozora Bank Ltd is 34.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY)?
Revenue at Aozora Bank Ltd is growing +20.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY)?
Earnings per share at Aozora Bank Ltd are growing +81.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY) generate?
The free cash flow of Aozora Bank Ltd is ¥123B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY) hold?
Aozora Bank Ltd holds more cash than debt, ¥213B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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