Aozora Bank, Ltd (AOZOY) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $2.2B
Aozora Bank, Ltd
AOZOY · US
Fair value as of: Jul 25, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 25, 2026, revised from $3.97 to $3.90 (−1.8%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +26.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 18% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.64 – $5.75 · fair‑value band $2.93 – $4.88 · the $4.75 price screens above the $3.90 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
Analysis
Aozora Bank, Ltd (AOZOY) currently trades at $4.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.90, implying the stock looks roughly 17.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Aozora Bank, Ltd generated revenue of $134B at a net margin of 19.2%. Revenue grew 46.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $213B. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $2.93 (bear case) to $4.88 (bull case); at $4.75, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at -18%, AOZOY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit ($681.49) versus Asset-Based ($583.45). Highest evidence: P/E Multiple (63).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 25, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Aozora Bank, Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services in Japan and internationally. It operates through Institutional Banking Group, Structured Finance Group, International Business Group, Customer Relations Group, and Market Group segments.
Full company description
Aozora Bank, Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services in Japan and internationally. It operates through Institutional Banking Group, Structured Finance Group, International Business Group, Customer Relations Group, and Market Group segments. The company offers checking accounts, savings accounts, time deposits, deposits-at-notice, non-residents deposits, and negotiable certificates of deposit, as well as deposits in foreign currencies. It also provides loans on deeds and notes, and overdrafts; corporate, M&A, project, equity, sustainable, LBO, structured, real estate, business recovery, and project financing products; syndicated loans; discount on promissory notes; securities investments, including public, local, and corporate bonds, as well as equity and other securities; domestic and foreign exchange services; and consignment of bonds. In addition, the company offers foreign currency remittance, liabilities guarantee, securities lending, public bonds underwriting, agency, custody, financial instruments intermediary, securitization, M&A advisory, business succession consulting, business expansion, equity/debt funding, and consulting services. Further, it is involved in the over-the-counter sale of securities investment trusts and insurance products; and provision of trust services for secured corporate bonds, as well as well as derivative products, including interest rate, foreign exchange, and commodity derivatives. The company was formerly known as Nippon Fudosan Bank, Limited and changed its name to Aozora Bank, Ltd. in 2001. Aozora Bank, Ltd. was incorporated in 1957 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Aozora Bank, Ltd reported revenue of $240B in FY2026 versus $131B in FY2022, a compound +16.4%/yr. Reported net income was $27.3B in FY2026, compounding −6.1%/yr from FY2022.
AOZOY screens 18% overvalued. Compare with PT Bank Central Asia Tbk →
Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1083 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 25, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA | 6,175 IDR | 6,087 IDR | -1% |
| KB Financial Group 105560 | 184,400 KRW | 213,797 KRW | +16% |
| PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI | 2,970 IDR | 4,891 IDR | +65% |
| PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI | 4,310 IDR | 7,841 IDR | +82% |
| Banco Bradesco S.A BBD | 5,120 ARS | 10,240 ARS | +100% |
| Shinhan Financial Group 055550 | 107,900 KRW | 137,259 KRW | +27% |
| Hana Financial Group 086790 | 136,800 KRW | 193,969 KRW | +42% |
| Lloyds Banking Group LYG | 4,138 ARS | 8,275 ARS | +100% |
| Banco de Chile, CHILE | 193.10 CLP | 152.55 CLP | -21% |
| Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, VCB | 59,400 VND | 84,201 VND | +42% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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