Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Aozora Bank Ltd $4.52, price $5.68, upside -20.4%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Aozora Bank Ltd ADR for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.64 – $5.75 · fair‑value band $3.42 – $5.28 · the $5.68 price screens above the $4.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Follow Aozora Bank Ltd ADR in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Aozora Bank Ltd ADR is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Aozora Bank, Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services in Japan and internationally. It operates through Institutional Banking Group, Structured Finance Group, International Business Group, Customer Relations Group, and Market Group segments.
Show more
Aozora Bank, Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services in Japan and internationally. It operates through Institutional Banking Group, Structured Finance Group, International Business Group, Customer Relations Group, and Market Group segments. The company offers checking accounts, savings accounts, time deposits, deposits-at-notice, non-residents deposits, and negotiable certificates of deposit, as well as deposits in foreign currencies. It also provides loans on deeds and notes, and overdrafts; corporate, M&A, project, equity, sustainable, LBO, structured, real estate, business recovery, and project financing products; syndicated loans; discount on promissory notes; securities investments, including public, local, and corporate bonds, as well as equity and other securities; domestic and foreign exchange services; and consignment of bonds. In addition, the company offers foreign currency remittance, liabilities guarantee, securities lending, public bonds underwriting, agency, custody, financial instruments intermediary, securitization, M&A advisory, business succession consulting, business expansion, equity/debt funding, and consulting services. Further, it is involved in the over-the-counter sale of securities investment trusts and insurance products; and provision of trust services for secured corporate bonds, as well as well as derivative products, including interest rate, foreign exchange, and commodity derivatives. The company was formerly known as Nippon Fudosan Bank, Limited and changed its name to Aozora Bank, Ltd. in 2001. Aozora Bank, Ltd. was incorporated in 1957 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Aozora Bank Ltd ADR (AOZOY) currently trades at $5.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.52, implying the stock looks roughly 25.5% overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 25 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at medium.
Scenario range: $3.42 (bear) to $5.28 (bull), the price of $5.68 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Aozora Bank Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥240B in FY2026 versus ¥131B in FY2022, a compound +16.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥27.3B in FY2026, compounding −6.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $3.1B · P/E ratio 19.6 · P/S ratio 2.22 · EPS (TTM) $0.2900 · Dividend yield 3.7% · Net margin 11.4% · Return on equity 5.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 64% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −20%, AOZOY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $3.42Fair Value $4.52Bull $5.28
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.4% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.1%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+30.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+26.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.26% vs 8%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.29% → 12%
2026 sits 72% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−9.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −10.9% a year for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside−20% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)19% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)10% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth47% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)3.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.25× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aozora Bank Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AOZOY
Frequently asked questions
Is Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.52 versus a price of $5.68, about −20% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AOZOY?
Our model-based fair value for Aozora Bank Ltd ADR is $4.52 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.68.
What is the quality score of AOZOY?
Aozora Bank Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.52 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.42, optimistic scenario $5.28. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aozora Bank Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.52, about −20% upside versus a price of $5.68 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.42, optimistic scenario $5.28. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY)?
Aozora Bank Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥134B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Aozora Bank Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Aozora Bank Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.67% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aozora Bank Ltd ADR would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AOZOY use?
Our models discount Aozora Bank Ltd ADR at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.19, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aozora Bank Ltd ADR that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Aozora Bank Ltd ADR grew +12.4 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aozora Bank Ltd ADR (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 24.70 %: that much free cash flow Aozora Bank Ltd ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aozora Bank Ltd ADR it is $4.52 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $5.68. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aozora Bank Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, AOZOY trades above its calculated fair value: price $5.68, fair value $4.52, a gap of about −20% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AOZOY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.52). For Aozora Bank Ltd ADR the two are $1.16 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aozora Bank Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Aozora Bank Ltd ADR at about $3.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $5.68; our models calculate a fair value of $4.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AOZOY?
Our models span a range for Aozora Bank Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $3.42, base $4.52, optimistic $5.28 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $5.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AOZOY?
Aozora Bank Ltd ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $4.52 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 3.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aozora Bank Ltd ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 5.6%, debt of 1.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AOZOY from its 52-week high?
Aozora Bank Ltd ADR trades at $5.68, at its 52-week high of $5.68 and 64% above the low of $3.46 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aozora Bank Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aozora Bank Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $5.68, calculated fair value $4.52 (−20%), Quality Score 53/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AOZOY calculated?
We run Aozora Bank Ltd ADR through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.52, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Aozora Bank Ltd ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $5.68. Our model-based fair value is $4.52, about −20% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aozora Bank Ltd ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.28). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY) come from?
Earnings per share at Aozora Bank Ltd ADR grew +7.2 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +22.2 %, EBIT margin −14.2 %, tax rate +2.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Aozora Bank Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY)?
The market capitalisation of Aozora Bank Ltd ADR is $3.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aozora Bank Ltd ADR is 2.22 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY)?
Earnings per share at Aozora Bank Ltd ADR are $0.2900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY)?
The dividend yield of Aozora Bank Ltd ADR is 3.7% (payout 71.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY)?
The net margin of Aozora Bank Ltd ADR is 11.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aozora Bank Ltd ADR is 5.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aozora Bank Ltd ADR is 0.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY)?
The operating margin of Aozora Bank Ltd ADR is 9.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY)?
Revenue at Aozora Bank Ltd ADR is growing +46.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY)?
Earnings per share at Aozora Bank Ltd ADR are growing −9.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Aozora Bank Ltd (AOZOY) hold?
Aozora Bank Ltd ADR holds more cash than debt, ¥213B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Aozora Bank Ltd ADR in the live analysis
One click puts Aozora Bank Ltd ADR on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Some data
Sep 24, 2026