ASX Ltd (ASX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of ASX Ltd stock A$39.61, price A$66.03, that is 40.0% below the price, quality 48 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 9 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Our calculation puts a fair price 40% below what the stock costs today.
Highly profitable · 38.4% net margin (TTM)
Low debt
Wide moat73/100
Broad data
Quality 48/100
Expensive Growth(revenue 5y +11.4 %/yr in AUD)
3.2% dividend yield · Watch coverage
Mixed vs. peers(7/14)
Neutral coverage
Fair value A$39.61 · Strongly overvalued
Negative free cash flow
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Regulatory capital charges and scrutiny raise costs🚩Rivals Cboe and NSX offer cheaper trading and listings🚩AI trading and T+1 settlement expose legacy infrastructure
Watch ASX Ltd for free: we tell you when fair value or trend changes.Watch for free
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$45.31 – A$81.34 · fair‑value band A$23.96 – A$68.43 · the A$66.03 price screens above the A$39.61 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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ASX Limited operates as a multi-asset class and integrated exchange company in Australia and internationally.
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The company provides regulated framework for entities to raise capital and source liquidity; education programs, research and insights, investor access and peer group networking; distribution facility for quoted exchange traded funds (ETFs) and debt securities.
It is also involved in the trading of futures and options on interest rate, equity index, agricultural and energy products, and options over individual securities; cash market trading of equities, warrants, ETFs, and debt securities; and clearing of exchange-traded derivatives, and over-the-counter interest rate and equity derivatives.
In addition, it offers information services, including pricing and trading data; technical services, such as market access, connectivity, hosting and co-location services; central counterparty clearing and settlement services for equities; settlement, depository, and registry services for debt securities; and payment platform for high value payments, electricity providers, and property transactions.
The company was incorporated in 1987 and is based in Sydney, Australia.
Stock analysis
ASX Ltd (ASX) currently trades at A$66.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$39.61, 40% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$47.17 per share, and 0 of the 9 models we run sit above the A$66.03 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at A$20.06, and 9 of the 9 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$23.96 (bear) to A$68.43 (bull), the price of A$66.03 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
ASX Ltd reported revenue of A$1.8B in FY2026 versus A$1.1B in FY2022, a compound +12.5%/yr. Reported net income was A$485M in FY2026, compounding −1.2%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$12.9B (≈ $8.9B) Mid · P/E ratio 26.5 · P/S ratio 10.2 · EPS (TTM) A$2.49 · Dividend yield 3.2% · Net margin 38.4% · Return on equity 12.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.4% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 73 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −40%, ASX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$23.96Fair Value A$39.61BullA$68.43
Price A$66.03 · Downside -40.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.1269 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.8% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+2.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.2%
Per share before 2000divided by the spin-off factor 1.0145
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−0.7% vs 1.2%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.69% → 65%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (88 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Regulated exchange position supports a moderate moat and high margins while limited signals on innovation and moderate ROE leave durability of advantage uncertain.
Main risk: Ongoing ASIC and RBA scrutiny following operational incidents could impose additional capital requirements and compliance burdens on ASX's clearing and settlement facilities.
Bull case: Successful CHESS replacement and governance improvements could satisfy regulators while enabling ASX to offer tokenised assets and faster settlement ahead of rivals.
Bear case: Repeated regulatory interventions and capital charges could divert resources from upgrades and allow rivals to erode market share in trading and listings over time.
ASX has brought in executives with exchange and markets experience to lead clearing and settlement plus the transformation program. This follows the new CEO's start and comes amid heavy technology spending and ongoing regulator demands for better resilience. Our models see it as overvalued. Will these hires speed up delivery of the upgrades or stretch resources even thinner?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Financial Data & Stock Exchanges · 48 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−40.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)12.3% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets3.3% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)38.4% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)47.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)14.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.07× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Financial Data & Stock Exchanges median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)26.5× · Pricier than median
P/B3.23× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)10.21× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA18.9× · Pricier than median
PEG1.57× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)74· sector 68
PAST (return on equity)49· sector 82
HEALTH (low debt)97· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)65· sector 34
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ASX Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ASX
Frequently asked questions
Is ASX Ltd (ASX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$39.61 versus a price of A$66.03, about 40% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ASX?
Our model-based fair value for ASX Ltd is A$39.61 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$66.03.
What is the quality score of ASX?
ASX Ltd has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ASX Ltd (ASX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$39.61 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$23.96, optimistic scenario A$68.43. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ASX Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$39.61, about 40% lower versus a price of A$66.03 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$23.96, optimistic scenario A$68.43. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ASX Ltd (ASX)?
ASX Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$1.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does ASX Ltd pay a dividend?
ASX Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 3.24% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of ASX Ltd (ASX) and when is the ex-dividend date?
ASX Ltd pays a dividend of A$2.14 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 21, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1999. The payout ratio is 85.9% of earnings. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of ASX Ltd (ASX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ASX Ltd it is A$39.61 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of A$66.03. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is ASX Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, ASX trades above its calculated fair value: price A$66.03, fair value A$39.61, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ASX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$66.03); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$39.61). For ASX Ltd the two are A$26.42 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ASX Ltd worth?
The market values ASX Ltd at about A$12.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is A$66.03; our models calculate a fair value of A$39.61 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ASX?
Our models span a range for ASX Ltd: cautious scenario A$23.96, base A$39.61, optimistic A$68.43 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price A$66.03). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ASX?
ASX Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.5 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$39.61 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 29.6. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 3.2, P/S 10.2, EV/EBITDA 18.9.
What is the PEG ratio of ASX?
The PEG ratio of ASX Ltd is 1.57 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of ASX Ltd (ASX)?
Balance-sheet figures for ASX Ltd (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 12.3%, debt of 0.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ASX from its 52-week high?
ASX Ltd trades at A$66.03, about 2% below its 52-week high of A$67.08 and 46% above the low of A$45.31 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$39.61 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ASX Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value S&P Global Inc, CME Group, Intercontinental Exchange, Inc, Moody's Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ASX Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price A$66.03, calculated fair value A$39.61 (−40%), Quality Score 48/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ASX calculated?
We run ASX Ltd through 9 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$39.61 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. ASX Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ASX Ltd (ASX)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was A$66.03. Our model-based fair value is A$39.61, about 40% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ASX Ltd right now?
Weak quality (48/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (A$23.96 to A$68.43). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of ASX Ltd (ASX) come from?
Earnings per share at ASX Ltd grew +1.6 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.2 %, EBIT margin +0.1 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −5.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of ASX Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of ASX Ltd (ASX)?
The market capitalisation of ASX Ltd is A$12.9B (≈ $8.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ASX Ltd (ASX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ASX Ltd is 10.2 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ASX Ltd (ASX)?
Earnings per share at ASX Ltd are A$2.49 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ASX Ltd (ASX)?
The dividend yield of ASX Ltd is 3.2% (payout 85.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ASX Ltd (ASX)?
The net margin of ASX Ltd is 38.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ASX Ltd (ASX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ASX Ltd is 12.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ASX Ltd (ASX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ASX Ltd is 6.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ASX Ltd (ASX)?
The operating margin of ASX Ltd is 47.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ASX Ltd (ASX)?
Revenue at ASX Ltd is growing +14.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ASX Ltd (ASX)?
Earnings per share at ASX Ltd are growing −14.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does ASX Ltd (ASX) generate?
The free cash flow of ASX Ltd is −A$2.9B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does ASX Ltd (ASX) carry?
The net debt of ASX Ltd is A$9.0B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026