Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Aura Minerals Inc. stock $82.74, price $77.82, upside +6.3%, quality 45 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.8427 – $124.64 · fair‑value band $41.88 – $155.42 · the $77.82 price screens below the $82.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Aura Minerals Inc., a gold and copper production company, focuses on the development and operation of gold and base metal projects in the Americas.
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It operates through The Minosa Mine, The Apoena Mine, the Aranzazu Mine, The Almas Mine, and The Borborema Mine and the Serra Grande Mine Projects segments. The company primarily explores gold, copper, and silver deposits.
The company was formerly known as Aura Gold Inc. and changed its name to Aura Minerals Inc. in July 2007. The company was incorporated in 1946 and is headquartered in Coconut Grove, Florida.
Stock analysis
Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO) currently trades at $77.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $82.74, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 5.9%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $61.68 per share, and 2 of the 13 models we run sit above the $77.82 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $35.34, and 11 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $41.88 (bear) to $155.42 (bull), the price of $77.82 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares reported revenue of $922M in FY2025 versus $424M in FY2021, a compound +21.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$79.3M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $6.6B Mid · P/E ratio 22.0 · P/S ratio 4.57 · EPS (TTM) $3.54 · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin −8.6% · Return on equity 101% · Return on assets (EBIT) 19.0% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 70 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 145% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at 6%, AUGO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$41.88Fair Value $82.74Bull$155.42
Price $77.82 · Upside +6.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.47 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EPV$38.12$44.89$50.9074
FCF DCF$20.94$33.93$76.3772
Growth DCF$19.72$41.37$77.7172
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$20.94$33.93$76.3772
5Y Revenue Exit$14.81$25.57$48.0767
5Y EBITDA Exit$41.84$80.24$155.8069
10Y Revenue Exit$16.30$35.59$47.6764
10Y EBITDA Exit$37.01$95.13$200.4361
Earnings-Based
EPV$38.12$44.89$50.9074
Multiples
EV/EBIT$55.34$74.28$93.2366
EV/EBITDA$45.88$61.68$77.4767
EV/Revenue$10.05$15.00$19.9553
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$1.58$2.12$3.1754
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$19.72$41.37$77.7172
Rev-Margin DCF$16.37$29.30$56.4067
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder$43.37$59.10$78.5569
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $22.8M, on Sep 1, 2026. Over the same period, 4 people sold shares worth $163.9M.
SaleMauad Bruno SousaDirector13× since May 12, 2026: 1,562,344 shares, avg. $85.42$133.5MSep 22, 2026
BuyMauad Bruno SousaDirector5× since Jun 3, 2026: 265,811 shares, avg. $85.94$22.8MSep 1, 2026
SaleLuvizotto Glauber RosaChief Operating Officer8× since Jun 22, 2026: 216,113 shares, avg. $73.20$15.8MAug 19, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleCardoso Joao Kleber Dos SantosCFO and Corporate Secretary4× since Jun 30, 2026: 80,000 shares, avg. $65.23$5.2MAug 19, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleRodrigo Cardoso BarbosaPresident and CEO2× since Mar 19, 2026: 130,000 shares, avg. $79.98$10.4MMay 12, 2026
Plus 17 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+55.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+33.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+33.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +30.5% a year for the price and +30.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (91 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Recent production records at multiple sites highlight operational potential, but commodity exposure and persistently negative profitability metrics indicate a lack of lasting competitive strengths.
Main risk: If key customers such as Asahi Refining, Trafigura or Auramet reduce volumes or delay payments for output from mines including Apoena, Almas, Borborema, Minosa or Aranzazu, revenue and cash flow from those operations could decline sharply.
Aura Minerals posted record Q3 gold equivalent production thanks to an 85 percent jump at MSG and stronger grades plus throughput at Borborema and Aranzazu. Several other sites delivered lower volumes than a year ago, so hitting full-year guidance still hinges on another step up in Q4. Will the ongoing turnarounds and mine sequencing create more consistent output across the six operations, or will performance gaps remain?
Compare Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 205 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Below median
Fair Value upside+6.3% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)100.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets−4.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)30.0% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)53.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)55.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.17× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AUGO
Frequently asked questions
Is Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $82.74 versus a price of $77.82, about +6% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of AUGO?
Our model-based fair value for Aura Minerals Inc. is $82.74 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $77.82.
What is the quality score of AUGO?
Aura Minerals Inc. has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $82.74 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $41.88, optimistic scenario $155.42. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $82.74, about +6% upside versus a price of $77.82 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $41.88, optimistic scenario $155.42. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO)?
Aura Minerals Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares pay a dividend?
Aura Minerals Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 0.85% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Aura Minerals Inc. pays a dividend of $0.66 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.8%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 18, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2021. The payout ratio is 18.6% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.42 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aura Minerals Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +33.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +25.2 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AUGO use?
Our models discount Aura Minerals Inc. at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.41, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aura Minerals Inc. that is +33.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Aura Minerals Inc. grew +25.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +33.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aura Minerals Inc. (+33.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.19 %: that much free cash flow Aura Minerals Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aura Minerals Inc. it is $82.74 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $77.82. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, AUGO trades below its calculated fair value: price $77.82, fair value $82.74, a gap of about +6% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AUGO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($77.82); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($82.74). For Aura Minerals Inc. the two are $4.92 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares worth?
The market values Aura Minerals Inc. at about $6.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $77.82; our models calculate a fair value of $82.74 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AUGO?
Our models span a range for Aura Minerals Inc.: cautious scenario $41.88, base $82.74, optimistic $155.42 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $77.82). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AUGO?
Aura Minerals Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.0 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $82.74 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 24.8, P/S 4.6, EV/EBITDA 7.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aura Minerals Inc. (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 100.9%, debt of 1.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AUGO from its 52-week high?
Aura Minerals Inc. trades at $77.82, about 27% below its 52-week high of $107.02 and 145% above the low of $31.82 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $82.74 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $77.82, calculated fair value $82.74 (+6%), Quality Score 45/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AUGO calculated?
We run Aura Minerals Inc. through 13 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $82.74 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Aura Minerals Inc. currently trades 6% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $77.82. Our model-based fair value is $82.74, about +6% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($41.88 to $155.42). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Key figures of Aura Minerals Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO)?
The market capitalisation of Aura Minerals Inc. is $6.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aura Minerals Inc. is 4.57 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO)?
Earnings per share at Aura Minerals Inc. are $3.54 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO)?
The dividend yield of Aura Minerals Inc. is 0.8% (payout 18.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO)?
The net margin of Aura Minerals Inc. is −8.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aura Minerals Inc. is 101% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aura Minerals Inc. is 19.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO)?
The operating margin of Aura Minerals Inc. is 53.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO)?
Revenue at Aura Minerals Inc. is growing +55.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +32.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO)?
Earnings per share at Aura Minerals Inc. are growing +22.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO) carry?
The net debt of Aura Minerals Inc. is $125M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 7, 2026