Aura Minerals Inc (AUGO) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $4.2B
Aura Minerals Inc
AUGO · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price +23.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 60% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (42/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($86.40). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0853 – $125.80 · fair‑value band $86.40 – $150.91 · the $74.13 price screens below the $118.61 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Aura Minerals Inc (AUGO) currently trades at $74.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $118.61, implying the stock looks roughly 60.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Aura Minerals Inc generated revenue of $1.1B at a net margin of 7.8%. Revenue grew 136.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 40.3%. Net debt stands at $125M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $86.40 (bear case) to $150.91 (bull case); at $74.13, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 248% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at 60%, AUGO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($63.12) versus Asset-Based ($2.13). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Aura Minerals Inc., a gold and copper production company, focuses on the development and operation of gold and base metal projects in the Americas. It operates through The Minosa Mine, The Apoena Mine, the Aranzazu Mine, The Almas Mine, and The Borborema Mine and the Serra Grande Mine Projects segments.
Full company description
Aura Minerals Inc., a gold and copper production company, focuses on the development and operation of gold and base metal projects in the Americas. It operates through The Minosa Mine, The Apoena Mine, the Aranzazu Mine, The Almas Mine, and The Borborema Mine and the Serra Grande Mine Projects segments. The company primarily explores gold, copper, and silver deposits. The company was formerly known as Aura Gold Inc. and changed its name to Aura Minerals Inc. in July 2007. The company was incorporated in 1946 and is headquartered in Coconut Grove, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Aura Minerals Inc reported revenue of $922M in FY2025 versus $424M in FY2021, a compound +21.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$79.3M in FY2025.
Watch AUGO: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Aura Declares Dividend of US$0.72 Per Share and US$0.24 Per BDR Based on Q2 2026 Results, Resulting in a Dividend Yield of 4.3% in the LTM
- Aura Announces Q2 2026 and H1 2026 Financial and Operational Results, a Record First Half Result
- Aura Minerals (AUGO) Pulls Back Sharply, Is It Still A Bargain?
- Aura Minerals (AUGO) Earnings Expected to Grow: Should You Buy?
Peer Group
Gold · 259 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Gold median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation NEMCL | $112.00 | $132.73 | +19% |
| Zijin Mining Group 601899 | ¥28.36 | ¥30.58 | +8% |
| Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM | C$191.93 | C$154.33 | -20% |
| Barrick Mining Corporation B | $34.93 | $50.66 | +45% |
| Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM | C$152.57 | C$52.47 | -66% |
| Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV | C$284.75 | C$97.76 | -66% |
| AngloGold Ashanti plc AU | $76.35 | $88.63 | +16% |
| Gold Fields Limited GFI | $33.33 | $59.06 | +77% |
| Kinross Gold Corporation KGC | $22.57 | $34.62 | +53% |
| Northern Star Resources Limited NST | A$20.48 | A$15.98 | -22% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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