Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Aura Minerals Inc. $64.88, price $85.34, upside -24.0%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.7114 – $124.64 · fair‑value band $32.84 – $121.87 · the $85.34 price screens above the $64.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Aura Minerals Inc., a gold and copper production company, focuses on the development and operation of gold and base metal projects in the Americas. It operates through The Minosa Mine, The Apoena Mine, the Aranzazu Mine, The Almas Mine, and The Borborema Mine and the Serra Grande Mine Projects segments.
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Aura Minerals Inc., a gold and copper production company, focuses on the development and operation of gold and base metal projects in the Americas. It operates through The Minosa Mine, The Apoena Mine, the Aranzazu Mine, The Almas Mine, and The Borborema Mine and the Serra Grande Mine Projects segments. The company primarily explores gold, copper, and silver deposits. The company was formerly known as Aura Gold Inc. and changed its name to Aura Minerals Inc. in July 2007. The company was incorporated in 1946 and is headquartered in Coconut Grove, Florida.
Stock analysis
Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares (AUGO) currently trades at $85.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $64.88, implying the stock looks roughly 31.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $62.86 per share, and 1 of the 15 models we run sit above the $85.34 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $20.89, and 14 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $32.84 (bear) to $121.87 (bull), the price of $85.34 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares reported revenue of $922M in FY2025 versus $424M in FY2021, a compound +21.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$79.3M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $7.2B · P/E ratio 23.1 · P/S ratio 5.89 · EPS (TTM) $3.69 · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin −8.6% · Return on equity 100% · Return on assets (EBIT) 19.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 195% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −24%, AUGO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $32.84Fair Value $64.88Bull $121.87
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.87 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+55.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
31.9% (2020) → 20.9% (2023)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+35.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+37.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +32.3% a year for the price and +34.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (89 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 238 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Above median
Fair Value upside−24% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)100% · Top 25%
Return on assets30% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)23% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)51% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth76% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.17× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AUGO
Frequently asked questions
Is Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $64.88 versus a price of $85.34, about −24% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AUGO?
Our model-based fair value for Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares is $64.88 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $85.34.
What is the quality score of AUGO?
Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $64.88 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $32.84, optimistic scenario $121.87. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $64.88, about −24% upside versus a price of $85.34 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $32.84, optimistic scenario $121.87. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO)?
Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares pay a dividend?
Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.34% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares would have to grow free cash flow by +35.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +25.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AUGO use?
Our models discount Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.30, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares that is +35.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares grew +25.2 % a year. The price currently implies +35.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares (+35.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.09 %: that much free cash flow Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares it is $64.88 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $85.34. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, AUGO trades above its calculated fair value: price $85.34, fair value $64.88, a gap of about −24% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AUGO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($85.34); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($64.88). For Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares the two are $20.46 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares worth?
The market values Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares at about $7.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $85.34; our models calculate a fair value of $64.88 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AUGO?
Our models span a range for Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares: cautious scenario $32.84, base $64.88, optimistic $121.87 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $85.34). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AUGO?
Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $64.88 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 27.2, P/S 5.6, EV/EBITDA 9.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 100.2%, debt of 1.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AUGO from its 52-week high?
Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares trades at $85.34, about 20% below its 52-week high of $107.02 and 195% above the low of $28.98 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $64.88 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Zijin Mining Group, Newmont Corporation, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Barrick Mining Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $85.34, calculated fair value $64.88 (−24%), Quality Score 47/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AUGO calculated?
We run Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $64.88, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $85.34. Our model-based fair value is $64.88, about −24% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($32.84 to $121.87). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares
How large is the market capitalisation of Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO)?
The market capitalisation of Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares is $7.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares is 5.89 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO)?
Earnings per share at Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares are $3.69 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO)?
The dividend yield of Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares is 1.3% (payout 30.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO)?
The net margin of Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares is −8.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares is 100% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares is 19.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO)?
The operating margin of Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares is 51.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO)?
Revenue at Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares is growing +76.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +32.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO)?
Earnings per share at Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares are growing +22.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO) carry?
The net debt of Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares is $125M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 24, 2026