Axon Enterprise Inc. (AXON) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Axon Enterprise Inc. stock $32.29, price $313, that is 89.7% below the price, quality 44 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 19 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Our calculation puts a fair price 90% below what the stock costs today.
Generates free cash flow
Positive coverage
Revenue last quarter +28% vs. a year ago.
Quality 44/100
Mixed Growth(revenue 5y +32.5 %/yr in USD)
Thin margins · 7.6% net margin (TTM)
Moderate debt
Insiders sold $60.1M (6M)
Fair value $32.29 · Strongly overvalued (−89.7%)
Trails peers(1/13)
Narrow moat30/100
Thin data
Extreme value
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Price drop: Procurement delays leading to overvaluation assessment🚩Federal procurement delays on counter-drone deployments🚩Rivals like Motorola Solutions and Flock Safety🚩Antitrust lawsuits and AI/privacy rules🚩Convertible notes and net debt position
Watch Axon Enterprise Inc. for free: we tell you when fair value or trend changes.Watch for free
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $84.37 – $870.97 · fair‑value band $24.22 – $40.36 · the $313.00 price screens above the $32.29 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Axon Enterprise, Inc. provides public safety technology solutions in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Software and Services, and Connected Devices.
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The Software and Services segment develops, manufactures, and sells cloud-based software-as-a-service solutions to capture, store, manage, share, and analyze video and other digital evidence.
This segment also offers Axon Evidence, Draft One, Axon Records, Axon Standards, Axon Fusus, Axon Assistant, and others.
The Connected Devices segment engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of integrated hardware solutions, such as conducted energy devices under the TASER brand, body cameras, fixed and in-car cameras, drone and counter-drone technologies, accessories, extended warranties, and related hardware products, as well as virtual reality training hardware.
The company serves first responders across international, federal, state, and local governments, international governmental entities, commercial enterprises, and consumers through direct sales, distribution partners, and third-party resellers.
The company was formerly known as TASER International, Inc. and changed its name to Axon Enterprise, Inc. in April 2017. Axon Enterprise, Inc. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.
Stock analysis
Axon Enterprise Inc. (AXON) currently trades at $313.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $32.29, 90% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $52.94 per share, and 0 of the 19 models we run sit above the $313.00 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $13.82, and 19 of the 19 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $24.22 (bear) to $40.36 (bull), the price of $313.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Axon Enterprise Inc. reported revenue of $2.8B in FY2025 versus $863M in FY2021, a compound +33.9%/yr. Reported net income was $125M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $31.1B Large · P/E ratio 129.9 · P/S ratio 9.10 · EPS (TTM) $2.41 · Net margin 7.6% · Return on equity 7.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.3% (5-year average) · Operating margin 4.6%.
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −90%, AXON screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($3.29 to $92.81). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$24.22Fair Value $32.29Bull$40.36
Price $313.00 · Downside -89.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.06 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 9 officers or directors sold shares worth $60.1M and none bought.
SaleIsaiah FieldsChief Legal Officer3× since Feb 27, 2026: 5,017 shares, avg. $470.13$2.4MSep 11, 2026
SalePatrick W SmithCHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, Director10× since Dec 8, 2025: 100,000 shares, avg. $543.31$54.3MSep 8, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJoshua IsnerPRESIDENT5× since Dec 3, 2025: 86,397 shares, avg. $539.48$46.6MAug 31, 2026
SaleJeffrey C KuninsCPO & CTO2× since Dec 2, 2025: 11,402 shares, avg. $612.91$7.0MAug 21, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleCameron BrooksCHIEF REVENUE OFFICER2× since Mar 9, 2026: 2,463 shares, avg. $532.48$1.3MJun 4, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleElizabeth Reid CoughlinChief Human Officer1,554 shares at $485.00$753,690Jun 4, 2026
SaleBrittany BagleyCOO & CFO4× since Nov 10, 2025: 14,735 shares, avg. $538.76$7.9MJun 2, 2026
SaleCaitlin Elizabeth KalinowskiDirector2× since Feb 27, 2026: 1,494 shares, avg. $514.07$768,017Jun 1, 2026
SaleJeri WilliamsDirector3× since Dec 4, 2025: 886 shares, avg. $482.39$427,395Jun 1, 2026
SaleErika NardiniDirector198 shares at $506.58$100,303Mar 17, 2026
Plus 1 more entries from the last 12 months.
Plus 34 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+33.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +30.2% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−11.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−11.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−2% → −2%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+71.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+26.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +67.2% a year for the price and +23.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Axon's main strength is the strong growth in software and services revenue alongside rising AI recurring revenue, while its main weak point is the exposure to timing risks in large government hardware contracts.
Main risk: Named competitors including Motorola Solutions, Flock Safety, Genetec and others in body cameras, drones and evidence software could intensify pricing pressure or take market share in hardware and recurring software offerings.
Bull case: Axon could deepen its integrated platform with proprietary AI features and long-term agency contracts, turning hardware bundles into higher-margin recurring revenue while outpacing rivals through scale and data advantages.
Bear case: If competition intensifies and regulatory hurdles mount, agencies might delay upgrades or switch to lower-cost alternatives, eroding software margins and forcing greater reliance on hardware sales with thinner economics.
Axon delivered 43 percent growth in software and services revenue while AI annual recurring revenue topped 100 million dollars. Federal procurement delays on three counter-drone deployments worth roughly 130 million dollars led our models to see the stock as overvalued. Will the shift toward sticky recurring revenue ultimately outweigh the timing risks in large government hardware contracts?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 238 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Below median
Fair Value upside−89.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.6% · Below median
Return on assets1.8% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)7.6% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)4.6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)27.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.53× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Axon Enterprise Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AXON
Frequently asked questions
Is Axon Enterprise Inc. (AXON) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $32.29 versus a price of $313.00, about 90% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AXON?
Our model-based fair value for Axon Enterprise Inc. is $32.29 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $313.00.
What is the quality score of AXON?
Axon Enterprise Inc. has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Axon Enterprise Inc. (AXON)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $32.29 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 19 valuation models. Cautious scenario $24.22, optimistic scenario $40.36. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Axon Enterprise Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $32.29, about 90% lower versus a price of $313.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $24.22, optimistic scenario $40.36. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Axon Enterprise Inc. (AXON)?
Axon Enterprise Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Axon Enterprise Inc. (AXON)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Axon Enterprise Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +71.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +32.5 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AXON use?
Our models discount Axon Enterprise Inc. at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.47, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Axon Enterprise Inc. that is +71.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Axon Enterprise Inc. (AXON) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Axon Enterprise Inc. grew +32.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +71.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Axon Enterprise Inc. (AXON) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Axon Enterprise Inc. (+71.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Axon Enterprise Inc. (AXON)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.29 %: that much free cash flow Axon Enterprise Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Axon Enterprise Inc. (AXON)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Axon Enterprise Inc. it is $32.29 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $313.00. It is the blended result of 19 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Axon Enterprise Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, AXON trades above its calculated fair value: price $313.00, fair value $32.29, a gap of about −90% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AXON?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($313.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($32.29). For Axon Enterprise Inc. the two are $280.71 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Axon Enterprise Inc. worth?
The market values Axon Enterprise Inc. at about $31.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $313.00; our models calculate a fair value of $32.29 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AXON?
Our models span a range for Axon Enterprise Inc.: cautious scenario $24.22, base $32.29, optimistic $40.36 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $313.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AXON?
Axon Enterprise Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 129.9 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $32.29 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2017, FY2018, FY2022 ex one-offs: 117.4. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 9.6, P/S 9.1.
What is the PEG ratio of AXON?
The PEG ratio of Axon Enterprise Inc. is 1.53 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Axon Enterprise Inc. (AXON)?
Balance-sheet figures for Axon Enterprise Inc. (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 7.6%, debt of 0.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AXON from its 52-week high?
Axon Enterprise Inc. trades at $313.00, about 52% below its 52-week high of $645.72 and at the low of $313.00 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $32.29 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Axon Enterprise Inc.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Safran SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Axon Enterprise Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $313.00, calculated fair value $32.29 (−90%), Quality Score 44/100, from 19 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AXON calculated?
We run Axon Enterprise Inc. through 19 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $32.29 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Axon Enterprise Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Axon Enterprise Inc. (AXON)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $313.00. Our model-based fair value is $32.29, about 90% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Axon Enterprise Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($40.36). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Axon Enterprise Inc. (AXON) come from?
Earnings per share at Axon Enterprise Inc. grew +31.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +23.7 %, EBIT margin −10.8 %, tax rate +7.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +11.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Axon Enterprise Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Axon Enterprise Inc. (AXON)?
The market capitalisation of Axon Enterprise Inc. is $31.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Axon Enterprise Inc. (AXON)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Axon Enterprise Inc. is 9.10 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Axon Enterprise Inc. (AXON)?
Earnings per share at Axon Enterprise Inc. are $2.41 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 129.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Axon Enterprise Inc. (AXON)?
The net margin of Axon Enterprise Inc. is 7.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Axon Enterprise Inc. (AXON)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Axon Enterprise Inc. is 7.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Axon Enterprise Inc. (AXON)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Axon Enterprise Inc. is −0.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Axon Enterprise Inc. (AXON)?
The operating margin of Axon Enterprise Inc. is 4.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Axon Enterprise Inc. (AXON)?
Revenue at Axon Enterprise Inc. is growing +27.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +32.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Axon Enterprise Inc. (AXON)?
Earnings per share at Axon Enterprise Inc. are growing −18.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Axon Enterprise Inc. (AXON) carry?
The net debt of Axon Enterprise Inc. is $709M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 9.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 6, 2026