Axon Enterprise Inc. (AXON) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $41.1B · ISIN US05464C1018
Axon Enterprise Inc.
AXON · US
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price +13.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and trading another 2,581% above our fair value.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($27.99). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (30/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $84.37 – $870.97 · fair‑value band $16.80 – $27.99 · the $600.73 price screens above the $22.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
Analysis
Axon Enterprise Inc. (AXON) currently trades at $600.73, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $22.40, implying the stock looks roughly 96.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Axon Enterprise Inc. generated revenue of $3.0B at a net margin of 6.9%. Revenue grew 33.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.8%. Net debt stands at $709M. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $16.80 (bear case) to $27.99 (bull case); at $600.73, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 77% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -44% fair-value upside, at -96%, AXON screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 1.65 USD per share, which is 7.4 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($120.43) versus Growth DCF ($15.09). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Axon Enterprise, Inc. provides public safety technology solutions in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Software and Services, and Connected Devices.
Full company description
Axon Enterprise, Inc. provides public safety technology solutions in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Software and Services, and Connected Devices. The Software and Services segment develops, manufactures, and sells cloud-based software-as-a-service solutions to capture, store, manage, share, and analyze video and other digital evidence. This segment also offers Axon Evidence, Draft One, Axon Records, Axon Standards, Axon Fusus, Axon Assistant, and others. The Connected Devices segment engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of integrated hardware solutions, such as conducted energy devices under the TASER brand, body cameras, fixed and in-car cameras, drone and counter-drone technologies, accessories, extended warranties, and related hardware products, as well as virtual reality training hardware. The company serves first responders across international, federal, state, and local governments, international governmental entities, commercial enterprises, and consumers through direct sales, distribution partners, and third-party resellers. The company was formerly known as TASER International, Inc. and changed its name to Axon Enterprise, Inc. in April 2017. Axon Enterprise, Inc. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Axon Enterprise Inc. reported revenue of $2.8B in FY2025 versus $863M in FY2021, a compound +33.9%/yr. Reported net income was $125M in FY2025.
of which total revenue +28.9 % · buybacks/dilution −4.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
AXON screens 2,581% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →
Peer Group
Aerospace & Defense · 233 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Electric Company GE | $354.39 | $116.71 | -67% |
| RTX Corporation RTX | $212.08 | $88.37 | -58% |
| Airbus SE AIR | €213.00 | €117.01 | -45% |
| Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT | $565.89 | $419.01 | -26% |
| Howmet Aerospace Inc HWM | $269.34 | $50.43 | -81% |
| General Dynamics Corporation GD | $379.32 | $274.32 | -28% |
| Northrop Grumman Corporation NOC | $545.57 | $356.59 | -35% |
| TransDigm Group TDG | $1,235 | $571.03 | -54% |
| L3Harris Technologies, Inc LHX | $262.82 | $146.55 | -44% |
| Thales S.A HO | €246.70 | €171.13 | -31% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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