Safran SA (SAF) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · FR · Market cap €136B
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from €216.11 to €216.43 (+0.1%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +2.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 39% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€314.34). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (€136.00 to €314.34) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €84.69 – €358.50 · fair‑value band €136.00 – €314.34 · the €355.20 price screens above the €216.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Safran SA (SAF) currently trades at €355.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €216.43, implying the stock looks roughly 39.1% overvalued today. We read business quality at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Safran SA generated revenue of €31.2B at a net margin of 23.0%. Revenue grew 12.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 55.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of €816M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €136.00 (bear case) to €314.34 (bull case); at €355.20, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic. The share trades near its 52-week high and 43% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -55% fair-value upside, at -39%, SAF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€272.05) versus Asset-Based (€23.99). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Safran SA, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the aerospace and defense businesses in France, rest of Europe, the Americas, the Asia-Pacific, Africa, and the Middle East. The company operates through three segments: Aerospace Propulsion; Aircraft Equipment, Defense and Aerosystems; and Aircraft Interiors.
Full company description
Safran SA, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the aerospace and defense businesses in France, rest of Europe, the Americas, the Asia-Pacific, Africa, and the Middle East. The company operates through three segments: Aerospace Propulsion; Aircraft Equipment, Defense and Aerosystems; and Aircraft Interiors. The Aerospace Propulsion segment designs, develops, produces, and markets propulsion and mechanical power transmission systems for commercial aircraft, military transport, training and combat aircraft, civil and military helicopters, and drones; and offers maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) services, as well as sells spare parts. The Aircraft Equipment, Defense and Aerosystems segment provides landing gears and brakes; nacelles and reversers; avionics, such as flight controls and onboard information systems; security systems, including evacuation slides and oxygen masks; onboard computers and fuel systems; electrical power management systems and related engineering services; optronic equipment and sights, navigation equipment and sensors, infantry, and drones; MRO services; and sells spare parts. The Aircraft Interiors segment designs, develops, manufactures, and markets aircraft seats for passengers and crew; cabin equipment, overhead bins, class dividers, passenger service units, cabin interior solutions, chilling systems, galleys, electrical inserts, and trolleys; and cabin equipment and passenger comfort-focused solutions such as water distribution, lavatories, air systems, and in-flight entertainment and connectivity (IFEC) solutions. The company's products and services are used in commercial civil and military aircrafts, and helicopters. Safran SA was founded in 1896 and is headquartered in Paris, France.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Safran SA reported revenue of €31.2B in FY2025 versus €15.3B in FY2021, a compound +19.5%/yr. Reported net income was €7.2B in FY2025, compounding +259.4%/yr from FY2021.
SAF screens 39% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Safran (ENXTPA:SAF) Stock Fair Value Rises After Analyst Target Revisions
- Is Safran (ENXTPA:SAF) Fully Priced Following Its Guidance Lift And Half Year Results?
- NextNav and Safran Electronics & Defense Announce Agreement to Demonstrate 5G-Powered PNT Interoperability
- Safran SA (SAFRF) (H1 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Growth in Revenue and Engine Deliveries
Peer Group
Aerospace & Defense · 227 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Electric Company GE | $381.22 | $116.71 | -69% |
| RTX Corporation RTX | $195.93 | $88.37 | -55% |
| Airbus SE 1AIR | €206.30 | €92.85 | -55% |
| The Boeing Company BA | $217.11 | $48.20 | -78% |
| China CSSC Holdings 600150 | ¥34.31 | ¥21.90 | -36% |
| HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co 329180 | 466,000 KRW | 272,966 KRW | -41% |
| Hanwha Aerospace Co 012450 | 967,000 KRW | 573,468 KRW | -41% |
| ASELSAN Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi ASELS | 337.50 TRY | 130.70 TRY | -61% |
| Saab AB SAABB | kr 520.40 | kr 212.84 | -59% |
| Kongsberg Gruppen ASA KOG | kr 277.50 | kr 106.93 | -61% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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