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Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Banco Comercial Portugues stock €0.58, price €1.08, that is 46.5% below the price, quality 61 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

6 models, one by oneBear €0.4650 to bull €0.7400 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 61/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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Financial Services PT · ISIN PTBCP0AM0015

Broad data Nov 8, 2026

Banco Comercial Portugues

BCP · LS

Solid, but very expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 46% below what the stock costs today.

Quality 61/100

Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +9.9 %/yr in EUR)

Highly profitable · 29.9% net margin (TTM)

3.2% dividend yield · Low payout

Broad data

Wide moat 69/100 · thin data

Revenue last quarter 48% below a year ago.

Fair value €0.5800 · Strongly overvalued (−46.5%)

Trails peers (5/15)

Downbeat coverage

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €0.1065 – €1.22 · fair‑value band €0.4650 – €0.7400 · the €1.08 price screens above the €0.5800 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.

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Company profile

Banco Comercial Português, S.A. engages in the provision of various banking and financial products and services in Portugal and internationally. The company operates through Retail Banking; Companies and Corporate; Private Banking; International Business, and Other segments.

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It offers a range of financial products and services, including current accounts, payment systems, savings and investment products, private banking, asset management, and investment banking services, such as mortgage loans, personal loans, commercial banking, leasing, factoring, insurance, and other products.

The company is also involved in the provision of investment fund and real estate management, e-commerce, web portal, leasing, consulting, brokerage, marketing, and real estate investment fund management services; and internet, telephone, and mobile banking services as well as buying and selling real estate.

In addition, it offers credit, debit, and prepaid cards; personal, mortgage, car loan, and salary loan; health, car, life, travel, personal accident, home, pet, work accident, payment protection, and transportation and repatriation insurance; retirement services; structured products, discretionary management, investment funds, and other technology and services.

Further, the company provides short, medium, and long term financing solutions; internacional operations financing; and treasury services. Banco Comercial Português, S.A. was incorporated in 1985 and is based in Porto, Portugal.

Stock analysis

Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP) currently trades at €1.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €0.5800, 46% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €0.6150 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the €1.08 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €0.3500, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: €0.4650 (bear) to €0.7400 (bull), the price of €1.08 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Banco Comercial Portugues reported revenue of €3.9B in FY2025 versus €2.5B in FY2021, a compound +11.8%/yr. Reported net income was €1.0B in FY2025, compounding +64.8%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

Key figures

Market cap €16.0B Large · P/E ratio 18.1 · P/S ratio 4.79 · EPS (TTM) €0.0600 · Dividend yield 3.2% · Net margin 29.9% · Return on equity 14.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.4% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 69 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −46%, BCP screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €0.4650 Fair Value €0.5800 Bull €0.7400

Price €1.08 · Downside -46.5%

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.0219 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Best data coverage

Residual Income €0.5000 €0.5800 €0.7400 76

Gordon GGM €0.2600 €0.4000 €0.5500 68

DDM Multi-Stage €0.2600 €0.3600 €0.4700 67

All 6 models by family

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM €0.2600 €0.4000 €0.5500 68

DDM Multi-Stage €0.2600 €0.3600 €0.4700 67

Multiples

P/E Multiple €0.6900 €0.9100 €1.14 63

P/B Multiple €0.2400 €0.3200 €0.4000 55

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) €0.2600 €0.3500 €0.5200 54

Economic Profit

Residual Income €0.5000 €0.5800 €0.7400 76

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 61/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 36

How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital

Quality Growth 46

Are margins and returns getting better?

Cashflow 100

Do the profits arrive as real cash?

Financial strength 14

Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble

Investment 60

Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?

Low Volatility 75

How calm the share price moves, does not count

Price momentum 65

Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count

Near the 52-week high 75

Distance to the 52-week high, does not count

New shares 95

Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 91/100

Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Revenue growth 1 year

+5.0%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+8.3%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+9.9%

Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.2% a year

Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+4.6%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.

+44.7%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year+41.5%

Dividend (yield on the price)3.2%

Per share before 2012divided by the spin-off factor 1.5515

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.41.5% vs 22.8%, picking up

Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

BCP screens overvalued: fair value 46% below the price. Compare with China Merchants Bank Co →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (90 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Very negative

Recent news coverage is unusually downbeat.

Banco Comercial Português (ENXTLS:BCP) Q3 Earnings Grapple With Revenue Slide And One Off Loss Yahoo Finance · Oct 30, 2026
Banco Comercial Português (ENXTLS:BCP) Stock Sees Modest Fair Value Lift As Analysts Reassess Valuation Yahoo Finance · Sep 27, 2026

Note from the team Oct 11, 2026

AI conclusion: Solid core earnings from Portuguese and Polish franchises stand as the main strength while limited signals of a durable moat amid competition and regulation form the key weakness.

Main risk: Potential government minority stake could constrain efficient capital allocation across its Portuguese and Polish markets.

Portugal’s government is weighing a minority stake in BCP should its largest shareholder Fosun exit, explicitly to keep control national and block greater Spanish influence in the country’s only listed bank. This comes as the bank runs an ongoing share buyback while reporting solid core earnings from its Portuguese franchise and Polish operations. Does the push for domestic ownership stability ultimately support or constrain the bank’s ability to allocate capital efficiently across its markets?

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 998 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures

Overall it trails its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 61 · Top 25%

Fair Value upside −46.5% · Bottom 25%

Profitability

Return on equity (12 months) 14.1% · Top 25%

Return on assets 0.9% · Below median

Net margin (12 months) 29.9% · Above median

Operating margin (12 months) 37.1% · Below median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −47.5% · Bottom 25%

Dividend yield (12 months) 3.2% · Above median

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 1.41× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 18.1× · Priciest 25%

P/B 2.29× · Priciest 25%

P/S (12 months) 4.79× · Priciest 25%

Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 5.2× · Cheapest 25%

EV/EBITDA 40.4× · Priciest 25%

PEG 21.65× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 8

FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 47

PAST (return on equity)56 · sector 43

HEALTH (low debt)–

DIVIDEND (yield)63 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value	Compare
Postal Savings Bank of China Co 601658	¥5.53	¥7.59	+37%	vs BCP
China Merchants Bank Co 600036	¥42.88	¥52.73	+23%	vs BCP
BNP Paribas SA BNP	€91.93	€106.01	+15%	vs BCP
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP	€6.18	€4.49	−27%	vs BCP
State Bank of India SBIN	₹1,019	₹736.65	−28%	vs BCP
UniCredit S.p.A UCG	€76.80	€50.44	−34%	vs BCP
Mizuho Financial Group MFG	$9.40	$5.90	−37%	vs BCP
DBS Group D05	69.72 SGD	40.39 SGD	−42%	vs BCP
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK	₹788.25	₹406.39	−48%	vs BCP
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK	₹1,571	₹615.63	−61%	vs BCP

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Frequently asked questions

Is Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €0.5800 versus a price of €1.08, about 46% lower (overvalued).

What is the fair value of BCP?

Our model-based fair value for Banco Comercial Portugues is €0.5800 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €1.08.

What is the quality score of BCP?

Banco Comercial Portugues has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of €0.5800 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario €0.4650, optimistic scenario €0.7400. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Banco Comercial Portugues stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at €0.5800, about 46% lower versus a price of €1.08 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €0.4650, optimistic scenario €0.7400. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP)?

Banco Comercial Portugues reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €3.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).

Does Banco Comercial Portugues pay a dividend?

Banco Comercial Portugues currently shows a dividend yield of 3.17% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).

How much is the dividend of Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP) and when is the ex-dividend date?

Banco Comercial Portugues pays a dividend of €0.0344 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Jun 1, 2026. The payout ratio is 57.3% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.

What is the intrinsic value of Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Banco Comercial Portugues it is €0.5800 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of €1.08. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).

Is Banco Comercial Portugues stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Nov 8, 2026, BCP trades above its calculated fair value: price €1.08, fair value €0.5800, a gap of about −46% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of BCP?

No. The price is what the market pays today (€1.08); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€0.5800). For Banco Comercial Portugues the two are €0.5040 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Banco Comercial Portugues worth?

The market values Banco Comercial Portugues at about €16.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is €1.08; our models calculate a fair value of €0.5800 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BCP?

Our models span a range for Banco Comercial Portugues: cautious scenario €0.4650, base €0.5800, optimistic €0.7400 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price €1.08). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of BCP?

Banco Comercial Portugues trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.1 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €0.5800 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 11.1. Other multiples: PEG 21.6, P/B 2.3, P/S 4.8, EV/EBITDA 40.4.

What is the PEG ratio of BCP?

The PEG ratio of Banco Comercial Portugues is 21.65 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.

How solid is the balance sheet of Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP)?

Balance-sheet figures for Banco Comercial Portugues (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 14.1%, debt of 1.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is BCP from its 52-week high?

Banco Comercial Portugues trades at €1.08, about 11% below its 52-week high of €1.22 and 46% above the low of €0.7428 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €0.5800 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Banco Comercial Portugues?

From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Banco Comercial Portugues stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price €1.08, calculated fair value €0.5800 (−46%), Quality Score 61/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of BCP calculated?

We run Banco Comercial Portugues through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €0.5800 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Banco Comercial Portugues itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP)?

The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €1.08. Our model-based fair value is €0.5800, about 46% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Banco Comercial Portugues right now?

The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€0.7400). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Where does the earnings growth of Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP) come from?

Earnings per share at Banco Comercial Portugues grew −25.2 % a year from 2008 to 2019. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −26.9 %, EBIT margin −16.5 %, tax rate −2.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +26.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Banco Comercial Portugues

How large is the market capitalisation of Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP)?

The market capitalisation of Banco Comercial Portugues is €16.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Banco Comercial Portugues is 4.79 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP)?

Earnings per share at Banco Comercial Portugues are €0.0600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP)?

The dividend yield of Banco Comercial Portugues is 3.2% (payout 57.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP)?

The net margin of Banco Comercial Portugues is 29.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Banco Comercial Portugues is 14.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Banco Comercial Portugues is 0.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP)?

The operating margin of Banco Comercial Portugues is 37.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP)?

Revenue at Banco Comercial Portugues is growing −47.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP)?

Earnings per share at Banco Comercial Portugues are growing −35.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much free cash flow does Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP) generate?

The free cash flow of Banco Comercial Portugues is €3.4B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net debt does Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP) carry?

The net debt of Banco Comercial Portugues is €2.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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