Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Banco Comercial Portugues €0.81, price €1.19, upside -32.2%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €0.1029 – €1.20 · fair‑value band €0.6000 – €1.01 · the €1.19 price screens above the €0.8050 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Banco Comercial Português, S.A. engages in the provision of various banking and financial products and services in Portugal and internationally. The company operates through Retail Banking; Companies and Corporate; Private Banking; International Business, and Other segments.
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Banco Comercial Português, S.A. engages in the provision of various banking and financial products and services in Portugal and internationally. The company operates through Retail Banking; Companies and Corporate; Private Banking; International Business, and Other segments. It offers a range of financial products and services, including current accounts, payment systems, savings and investment products, private banking, asset management, and investment banking services, such as mortgage loans, personal loans, commercial banking, leasing, factoring, insurance, and other products. The company is also involved in the provision of investment fund and real estate management, e-commerce, web portal, leasing, consulting, brokerage, marketing, and real estate investment fund management services; and internet, telephone, and mobile banking services as well as buying and selling real estate. In addition, it offers credit, debit, and prepaid cards; personal, mortgage, car loan, and salary loan; health, car, life, travel, personal accident, home, pet, work accident, payment protection, and transportation and repatriation insurance; retirement services; structured products, discretionary management, investment funds, and other technology and services. Further, the company provides short, medium, and long term financing solutions; internacional operations financing; and treasury services. Banco Comercial Português, S.A. was incorporated in 1985 and is based in Porto, Portugal.
Stock analysis
Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP) currently trades at €1.19, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €0.8050, implying the stock looks roughly 47.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €0.7400 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the €1.19 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €0.3500, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €0.6000 (bear) to €1.01 (bull), the price of €1.19 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Banco Comercial Portugues reported revenue of €3.9B in FY2025 versus €2.5B in FY2021, a compound +11.8%/yr. Reported net income was €1.0B in FY2025, compounding +64.8%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap €17.6B · P/E ratio 17.0 · P/S ratio 4.41 · EPS (TTM) €0.0700 · Dividend yield 2.9% · Net margin 26.0% · Return on equity 13.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 67% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −32%, BCP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €0.6000Fair Value €0.8050Bull €1.01
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.0260 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.91/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.2% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+44.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+41.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.42% vs 23%, picking up
Profit margin 2013 to 2019 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−49% → 26%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−11.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −13.6% a year for the price and +1.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (89 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
Compare Banco Comercial Portugues with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−32% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)14% · Top 25%
Return on assets1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)29% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)59% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth11% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.41× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)17.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.56× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)5.42× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF5.8× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA43.9× · Priciest 25%
PEG21.65× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)56· sector 45
PAST (return on equity)54· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)30· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)58· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €0.8050 versus a price of €1.19, about −32% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BCP?
Our model-based fair value for Banco Comercial Portugues is €0.8050 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €1.19.
What is the quality score of BCP?
Banco Comercial Portugues has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €0.8050 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario €0.6000, optimistic scenario €1.01. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Banco Comercial Portugues stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €0.8050, about −32% upside versus a price of €1.19 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €0.6000, optimistic scenario €1.01. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP)?
Banco Comercial Portugues reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €3.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Banco Comercial Portugues pay a dividend?
Banco Comercial Portugues currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.90% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Banco Comercial Portugues would have to grow free cash flow by -11.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BCP use?
Our models discount Banco Comercial Portugues at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.83, country premium for Portugal. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Banco Comercial Portugues that is -11.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Banco Comercial Portugues grew +9.9 % a year. The price currently implies -11.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Banco Comercial Portugues (-11.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 19.51 %: that much free cash flow Banco Comercial Portugues produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Banco Comercial Portugues it is €0.8050 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of €1.19. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Banco Comercial Portugues stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, BCP trades above its calculated fair value: price €1.19, fair value €0.8050, a gap of about −32% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BCP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€1.19); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€0.8050). For Banco Comercial Portugues the two are €0.3815 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Banco Comercial Portugues worth?
The market values Banco Comercial Portugues at about €17.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is €1.19; our models calculate a fair value of €0.8050 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BCP?
Our models span a range for Banco Comercial Portugues: cautious scenario €0.6000, base €0.8050, optimistic €1.01 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price €1.19). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BCP?
Banco Comercial Portugues trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €0.8050 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 21.6, P/B 2.6, P/S 5.4, EV/EBITDA 43.9.
What is the PEG ratio of BCP?
The PEG ratio of Banco Comercial Portugues is 21.65 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Banco Comercial Portugues (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 13.6%, debt of 1.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BCP from its 52-week high?
Banco Comercial Portugues trades at €1.19, about 1% below its 52-week high of €1.20 and 67% above the low of €0.7090 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €0.8050 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Banco Comercial Portugues?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Banco Comercial Portugues stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price €1.19, calculated fair value €0.8050 (−32%), Quality Score 60/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BCP calculated?
We run Banco Comercial Portugues through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €0.8050, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Banco Comercial Portugues itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was €1.19. Our model-based fair value is €0.8050, about −32% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Banco Comercial Portugues right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€1.01). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP) come from?
Earnings per share at Banco Comercial Portugues grew −25.2 % a year from 2008 to 2019. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −26.9 %, EBIT margin −16.5 %, tax rate −2.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +26.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Banco Comercial Portugues
How large is the market capitalisation of Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP)?
The market capitalisation of Banco Comercial Portugues is €17.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Banco Comercial Portugues is 4.41 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP)?
Earnings per share at Banco Comercial Portugues are €0.0700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP)?
The dividend yield of Banco Comercial Portugues is 2.9% (payout 49.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP)?
The net margin of Banco Comercial Portugues is 26.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Banco Comercial Portugues is 13.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Banco Comercial Portugues is 0.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP)?
The operating margin of Banco Comercial Portugues is 59.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP)?
Revenue at Banco Comercial Portugues is growing +11.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP)?
Earnings per share at Banco Comercial Portugues are growing +29.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP) carry?
The net debt of Banco Comercial Portugues is €2.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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