Jumbo S.A. (BELA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 12, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Jumbo S.A. stock €37.12, price €27.60, upside +34.5%, quality 80 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €8.47 – €30.83 · fair‑value band €25.15 – €52.16 · the €27.60 price screens below the €37.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 11, 2026.
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Jumbo S.A. engages in the retail sale of toys, baby products, gift articles, household products, stationery, seasonal and decoration items, books, and related products in Greece, Cyprus, Bulgaria, and Romania. The company operates e-jumbo, an online store.
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It is involved in the wholesale of toys and related products to third parties. Jumbo S.A. was incorporated in 1986 and is headquartered in Athens, Greece.
Stock analysis
Jumbo S.A. (BELA) currently trades at €27.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €37.12, implying the stock looks roughly 26% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €47.48 per share, and 13 of the 26 models we run sit above the €27.60 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €5.35, and 13 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €25.15 (bear) to €52.16 (bull), the price of €27.60 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Jumbo S.A. reported revenue of €1.2B in FY2025 versus €832M in FY2021, a compound +10.3%/yr. Reported net income was €320M in FY2025, compounding +10.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €3.7B Mid · P/E ratio 11.5 · P/S ratio 2.96 · EPS (TTM) €2.41 · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin 25.8% · Return on equity 21.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 19.4% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 84 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −6% fair-value upside, at 35%, BELA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€25.15Fair Value €37.12Bull€52.16
Price €27.60 · Upside +34.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€1.49 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.96/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.8% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+17.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.5%
Per share before 2014divided by the spin-off factor 1.0455
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.14.7% vs 10.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.25% → 32%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.0% a year for the price and +3.2% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Strong reported margins and returns with zero debt form the main strength, while insufficient data on moat factors represent the key weakness.
Main risk: Persistent absorption of elevated energy and transport costs from Middle East tensions and Romania pressures risks eroding margins and profitability.
Jumbo's centralized procurement and owned logistics underpin its value-for-money model and margin resilience. The company absorbs higher energy and transport costs from Middle East tensions plus Romania pressures instead of passing them on, which lifted October group sales 13 percent year over year. Our models see it as undervalued. Will this pricing discipline expand volumes and loyalty enough to offset margin pressure, or will persistent costs erode profitability?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Retail · 215 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score80 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+34.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)21.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets17.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)25.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)25.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)4.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.5% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)11.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B2.35× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)2.96× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)14.3× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Jumbo S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BELA
Frequently asked questions
Is Jumbo S.A. (BELA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 11, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €37.12 versus a price of €27.60, about +35% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BELA?
Our model-based fair value for Jumbo S.A. is €37.12 (as of Nov 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €27.60.
What is the quality score of BELA?
Jumbo S.A. has a Quality Score of 80/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Jumbo S.A. (BELA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €37.12 (as of Nov 11, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €25.15, optimistic scenario €52.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Jumbo S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €37.12, about +35% upside versus a price of €27.60 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €25.15, optimistic scenario €52.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Jumbo S.A. (BELA)?
Jumbo S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €1.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 11, 2026).
Does Jumbo S.A. pay a dividend?
Jumbo S.A. currently shows a dividend yield of 2.54% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 11, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Jumbo S.A. (BELA) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Jumbo S.A. pays a dividend of €0.7 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.5%. The next ex-dividend date is Nov 16, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2016. The payout ratio is 29.0% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.75 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Jumbo S.A. (BELA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Jumbo S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by +3.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.2 % per year. As of Nov 11, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BELA use?
Our models discount Jumbo S.A. at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.35, country premium for Greece. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Jumbo S.A. that is +3.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Jumbo S.A. (BELA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Jumbo S.A. grew +12.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +3.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Jumbo S.A. (BELA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Jumbo S.A. (+3.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Jumbo S.A. (BELA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.97 %: that much free cash flow Jumbo S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Jumbo S.A. (BELA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Jumbo S.A. it is €37.12 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026), against a price of €27.60. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Jumbo S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 11, 2026, BELA trades below its calculated fair value: price €27.60, fair value €37.12, a gap of about +35% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BELA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€27.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€37.12). For Jumbo S.A. the two are €9.52 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Jumbo S.A. worth?
The market values Jumbo S.A. at about €3.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 11, 2026). Per share that is €27.60; our models calculate a fair value of €37.12 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BELA?
Our models span a range for Jumbo S.A.: cautious scenario €25.15, base €37.12, optimistic €52.16 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026, price €27.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BELA?
Jumbo S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.5 (as of Nov 11, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €37.12 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 10.8, P/B 2.4, P/S 3.0, EV/EBITDA 7.5.
What is the PEG ratio of BELA?
The PEG ratio of Jumbo S.A. is 10.83 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 11, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Jumbo S.A. (BELA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Jumbo S.A. (as of Nov 11, 2026): return on equity 21.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 80/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BELA from its 52-week high?
Jumbo S.A. trades at €27.60, about 2% below its 52-week high of €28.30 and 33% above the low of €20.75 (as of Nov 12, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €37.12 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Jumbo S.A.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc, Williams-Sonoma, Inc, Ulta Beauty, Inc, Casey's General Stores, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Jumbo S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 11, 2026: price €27.60, calculated fair value €37.12 (+35%), Quality Score 80/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BELA calculated?
We run Jumbo S.A. through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €37.12 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.3% above its aggregate fair value. Jumbo S.A. currently trades 26% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Jumbo S.A. (BELA)?
The closing price on Nov 12, 2026 was €27.60. Our model-based fair value is €37.12, about +35% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Jumbo S.A. right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (80/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. A fairly wide model range (€25.15 to €52.16) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Jumbo S.A. (BELA) come from?
Earnings per share at Jumbo S.A. grew +11.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.9 %, EBIT margin +3.0 %, tax rate +0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Jumbo S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of Jumbo S.A. (BELA)?
The market capitalisation of Jumbo S.A. is €3.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Jumbo S.A. (BELA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Jumbo S.A. is 2.96 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Jumbo S.A. (BELA)?
Earnings per share at Jumbo S.A. are €2.41 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Jumbo S.A. (BELA)?
The dividend yield of Jumbo S.A. is 2.5% (payout 29.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Jumbo S.A. (BELA)?
The net margin of Jumbo S.A. is 25.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Jumbo S.A. (BELA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Jumbo S.A. is 21.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Jumbo S.A. (BELA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Jumbo S.A. is 19.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Jumbo S.A. (BELA)?
The operating margin of Jumbo S.A. is 25.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Jumbo S.A. (BELA)?
Revenue at Jumbo S.A. is growing +4.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Jumbo S.A. (BELA)?
Earnings per share at Jumbo S.A. are growing +3.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Jumbo S.A. (BELA) hold?
Jumbo S.A. holds more cash than debt, €473M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 11, 2026