Calix Inc (CALX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Calix Inc stock $15.90, price $30.60, that is 48.0% below the price, quality 76 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Calix Inc
CALX · USOur calculation puts a fair price 48% below what the stock costs today.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $27.73 – $79.97 · fair‑value band $11.92 – $19.88 · the $30.60 price screens above the $15.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Company profile
Calix, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of cloud and software platforms, and systems and services in the United States, rest of Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific.
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The company cloud and software platforms, and systems and services enable broadband service providers (BSPs) to provide a range of services.
It offers Calix Cloud platform comprising Calix Engagement Cloud, Calix Operations Cloud, and Calix Service Cloud, which are configurable to display role-based insights and enable BEPs to anticipate and target new revenue-generating services and applications through mobile application, such as CommandIQ for residents and CommandWorx for businesses; Calix Intelligent Access, an access network solution for automated and intelligent networks; and Calix Unlimited Subscriber, a solution for subscriber managed services.
It also provides SmartLife managed services, including SmartHome managed services and applications to enhance, operate and secure the connected experience of subscribers in their home for Wi-Fi, advanced content control, network security, connected cameras, and social media monitoring; SmartTown managed services that reimagine community Wi-Fi as a ubiquitous, secure, and managed experience across a BEP's footprint; SmartBiz managed services that address the business networking and productivity needs of business owners with an all-in-one managed service; SMARTMDU managed services provide purpose-built, flexible connectivity solutions for multi-family properties of any type.
In addition, the company offers Wi-Fi systems under GigaSpire and GigaPro brands to be ready for deployment as a complete subscriber experience solution for BEP's residential and business subscribers. It provides its products through its direct sales force and resellers.
Calix, Inc. was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.
Stock analysis
Calix Inc (CALX) currently trades at $30.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.90, 48% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $26.43 per share, and 3 of the 24 models we run sit above the $30.60 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $3.63, and 21 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $11.92 (bear) to $19.88 (bull), the price of $30.60 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 76/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Calix Inc reported revenue of $1.0B in FY2025 versus $679M in FY2021, a compound +10.1%/yr. Reported net income was $17.9M in FY2025, compounding −47.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $2.0B Mid · P/E ratio 40.8 · P/S ratio 1.80 · EPS (TTM) $0.7500 · Net margin 4.6% · Return on equity 6.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.2% (5-year average) · Operating margin 7.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −48%, CALX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
All 24 models by family
Quality Score breakdown
It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.
Insider trades
In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $2.7M and none bought.
- SaleCarl RussoDirector, 10% owner3× since Feb 3, 2026: 125,000 shares, avg. $39.83$5.0MJul 27, 202610b5-1 plan
- SaleShane Todd Marshall EleniakChief Product Officer24,000 shares at $64.14$1.5MNov 10, 2025
Plus 8 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Forecast
CALX screens overvalued: fair value 48% below the price. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →
Recent news
- Record Revenue And AI Push Could Be A Game Changer For Calix (CALX)
- Calix Inc (CALX) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenue and Software Growth Amid ...
- Calix (CALX) Stock Drops After Q3 Results Expose Profit Pressure
- Calix (CALX) Stock Still Looks Overvalued After a 51% Fall
Compare Calix Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 345 stocks
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Information Technology sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Net margin by industry
- P/B ratio by industry
- Stock screener with 62 metrics
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortinet, Inc FTNT | $118.84 | $134.76 | +13% | vs CALX |
| Microsoft Corporation MSFT | $530.61 | $583.67 | +10% | vs CALX |
| Oracle Corporation ORCL | $116.10 | $111.97 | −4% | vs CALX |
| NetApp, Inc NTAP | $169.19 | $156.80 | −7% | vs CALX |
| Block, Inc XYZ | $85.48 | $76.43 | −11% | vs CALX |
| Synopsys, Inc SNPS | $450.46 | $288.23 | −36% | vs CALX |
| Zscaler, Inc ZS | $197.66 | $101.45 | −49% | vs CALX |
| Palantir Technologies Inc PLTR | $160.38 | $42.20 | −74% | vs CALX |
| CrowdStrike Holdings CRWD | $216.90 | $37.97 | −82% | vs CALX |
| Palo Alto Networks, Inc PANW | $313.84 | $39.54 | −87% | vs CALX |
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Key figures of Calix Inc
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