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Calix Inc (CALX) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Calix Inc $15.70, price $34.54, upside -54.6%, quality 66 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Technology · US · ISIN US13100M5094

CI Calix Inc logo Some data Sep 23, 2026

Calix Inc

CALX · US

Stretched ValuationQuality growthStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value $15.70 · Strongly overvalued (−55%)
✓Quality 66/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +13.1 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (7/14)
!Narrow moat 34/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 18 out of 100
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$79.97 $27.73 Fair Value $15.70 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $27.73 – $79.97 · fair‑value band $11.78 – $19.62 · the $34.54 price screens above the $15.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Calix, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of cloud and software platforms, and systems and services in the United States, rest of Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific.

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Calix, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of cloud and software platforms, and systems and services in the United States, rest of Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. The company cloud and software platforms, and systems and services enable broadband service providers (BSPs) to provide a range of services. It offers Calix Cloud platform comprising Calix Engagement Cloud, Calix Operations Cloud, and Calix Service Cloud, which are configurable to display role-based insights and enable BEPs to anticipate and target new revenue-generating services and applications through mobile application, such as CommandIQ for residents and CommandWorx for businesses; Calix Intelligent Access, an access network solution for automated and intelligent networks; and Calix Unlimited Subscriber, a solution for subscriber managed services. It also provides SmartLife managed services, including SmartHome managed services and applications to enhance, operate and secure the connected experience of subscribers in their home for Wi-Fi, advanced content control, network security, connected cameras, and social media monitoring; SmartTown managed services that reimagine community Wi-Fi as a ubiquitous, secure, and managed experience across a BEP's footprint; SmartBiz managed services that address the business networking and productivity needs of business owners with an all-in-one managed service; SMARTMDU managed services provide purpose-built, flexible connectivity solutions for multi-family properties of any type. In addition, the company offers Wi-Fi systems under GigaSpire and GigaPro brands to be ready for deployment as a complete subscriber experience solution for BEP's residential and business subscribers. It provides its products through its direct sales force and resellers. Calix, Inc. was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

Stock analysis

Calix Inc (CALX) currently trades at $34.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.70, implying the stock looks roughly 120.0% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $21.13 per share, and 2 of the 24 models we run sit above the $34.54 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $3.32, and 22 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $11.78 (bear) to $19.62 (bull), the price of $34.54 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Calix Inc reported revenue of $1.0B in FY2025 versus $679M in FY2021, a compound +10.1%/yr. Reported net income was $17.9M in FY2025, compounding −47.7%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $2.4B · P/E ratio 70.5 · P/S ratio 1.26 · EPS (TTM) $0.4900 · Net margin 1.8% · Return on equity 4.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.2% · Operating margin 4.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.

The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −55%, CALX screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $11.78 Fair Value $15.70 Bull $19.62
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3584 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $25.30 $42.97 $72.52 78
Growth DCF $25.07 $41.08 $66.81 77
Owner Earnings $6.25 $9.34 $14.50 76
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $25.30 $42.97 $72.52 78
Owner Earnings $6.25 $9.34 $14.50 76
5Y Revenue Exit $11.89 $15.41 $19.55 74
5Y EBITDA Exit $14.94 $21.69 $29.74 75
5Y P/E Exit $13.53 $18.79 $24.46 72
10Y Revenue Exit $16.28 $21.13 $27.48 68
10Y EBITDA Exit $18.36 $25.63 $35.82 69
10Y P/E Exit $17.44 $23.55 $31.50 64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $1.91 $8.83 $12.12 64
Lynch FV $2.33 $3.32 $4.32 61
PEG = 1.0 $2.33 $3.32 $4.32 57
EPV $3.72 $3.96 $4.16 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $5.89 $7.85 $9.81 63
P/S Multiple $3.57 $4.77 $5.96 58
P/B Multiple $3.57 $4.77 $5.96 55
EV/EBIT $8.15 $10.13 $12.10 66
EV/EBITDA $10.42 $13.15 $15.88 67
EV/Revenue $5.22 $6.51 $7.79 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $6.74 $9.03 $13.47 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $25.07 $41.08 $66.81 77
Rev-Margin DCF $11.89 $15.68 $20.63 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income $9.35 $8.83 $6.84 71
ROIC Compounder $3.72 $3.96 $4.16 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $4.39 $6.28 $8.16 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 66/100

Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 19

Profitability 47
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 87
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 73
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 83
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 76
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 43
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 14
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 44
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 88/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.4% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.5%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−13.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−13.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 2%

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+14.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.2% a year for the price and +11.8% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+18.4%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+16.2%
Projected 2028 (sales)+14.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)+12.6%
Projected 2030 (sales)+10.9%

CALX screens 120% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (79 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 372 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −55% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 5% · Above median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 27% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.00× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 70.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B 2.83× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.30× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 21.1× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 39.8× · Priciest 25%
PEG 3.34× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 18
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 49
PAST (return on equity)18 · sector 18
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 32

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Microsoft Corporation MSFT $498.00 $547.80 +10%
Oracle Corporation ORCL $149.20 $117.84 −21%
Palantir Technologies Inc PLTR $184.99 $43.02 −77%
Palo Alto Networks, Inc PANW $374.57 $114.50 −69%
CrowdStrike Holdings CRWD $250.06 $35.15 −86%
Fortinet, Inc FTNT $174.26 $164.92 −5%
Synopsys, Inc SNPS $409.24 $250.04 −39%
Block, Inc XYZ $77.53 $101.29 +31%
CoreWeave, Inc CRWV $86.76 $71.79 −17%
NetApp, Inc NTAP $192.91 $157.18 −19%

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Calix Inc · Fair Value
$15.70 −120%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Calix Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CALX

Frequently asked questions

Is Calix Inc (CALX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.70 versus a price of $34.54, about −55% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CALX?
Our model-based fair value for Calix Inc is $15.70 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $34.54.
What is the quality score of CALX?
Calix Inc has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Calix Inc (CALX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $15.70 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.78, optimistic scenario $19.62. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Calix Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $15.70, about −55% upside versus a price of $34.54 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $11.78, optimistic scenario $19.62. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Calix Inc (CALX)?
Calix Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Calix Inc (CALX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Calix Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +8.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.1 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CALX use?
Our models discount Calix Inc at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.23, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Calix Inc that is +8.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Calix Inc (CALX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Calix Inc grew +13.1 % a year. The price currently implies +8.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Calix Inc (CALX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Calix Inc (+8.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Calix Inc (CALX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.75 %: that much free cash flow Calix Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Calix Inc (CALX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Calix Inc it is $15.70 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $34.54. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Calix Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, CALX trades above its calculated fair value: price $34.54, fair value $15.70, a gap of about −55% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CALX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($34.54); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($15.70). For Calix Inc the two are $18.84 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Calix Inc worth?
The market values Calix Inc at about $2.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $34.54; our models calculate a fair value of $15.70 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CALX?
Our models span a range for Calix Inc: cautious scenario $11.78, base $15.70, optimistic $19.62 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $34.54). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CALX?
Calix Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 70.5 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $15.70 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.3, P/B 2.8, P/S 2.3, EV/EBITDA 39.8.
What is the PEG ratio of CALX?
The PEG ratio of Calix Inc is 3.34 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Calix Inc (CALX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Calix Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 4.5%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CALX from its 52-week high?
Calix Inc trades at $34.54, about 50% below its 52-week high of $68.42 and at the low of $34.44 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $15.70 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Calix Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Calix Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $34.54, calculated fair value $15.70 (−55%), Quality Score 66/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CALX calculated?
We run Calix Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $15.70, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Calix Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Calix Inc (CALX)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $34.54. Our model-based fair value is $15.70, about −55% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Calix Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($19.62). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Calix Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Calix Inc (CALX)?
The market capitalisation of Calix Inc is $2.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Calix Inc (CALX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Calix Inc is 1.26 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Calix Inc (CALX)?
Earnings per share at Calix Inc are $0.4900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 70.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Calix Inc (CALX)?
The net margin of Calix Inc is 1.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Calix Inc (CALX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Calix Inc is 4.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Calix Inc (CALX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Calix Inc is 3.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Calix Inc (CALX)?
The operating margin of Calix Inc is 4.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Calix Inc (CALX)?
Revenue at Calix Inc is growing +27.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Calix Inc (CALX)?
Earnings per share at Calix Inc are growing −98.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Calix Inc (CALX) hold?
Calix Inc holds more cash than debt, $118M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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