Calix, Inc (CALX) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $2.5B
Calix, Inc
CALX · US
Fair value as of: Jul 20, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Share price +0.6% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 85% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($7.01). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $27.73 – $79.97 · fair‑value band $4.21 – $7.01 · the $37.98 price screens above the $5.61 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
Analysis
Calix, Inc (CALX) currently trades at $37.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.61, implying the stock looks roughly 85.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Calix, Inc generated revenue of $1.1B at a net margin of 3.2%. Revenue grew 27.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $118M. Fundamentals as of Jul 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $4.21 (bear case) to $7.01 (bull case); at $37.98, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -50% fair-value upside, at -85%, CALX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($18.45) versus Dividend Discount ($2.77). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 20
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Calix, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of cloud and software platforms, and systems and services in the United States, rest of Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific.
Full company description
Calix, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of cloud and software platforms, and systems and services in the United States, rest of Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. The company cloud and software platforms, and systems and services enable broadband service providers (BSPs) to provide a range of services. It offers Calix Cloud platform comprising Calix Engagement Cloud, Calix Operations Cloud, and Calix Service Cloud, which are configurable to display role-based insights and enable BEPs to anticipate and target new revenue-generating services and applications through mobile application, such as CommandIQ for residents and CommandWorx for businesses; Calix Intelligent Access, an access network solution for automated and intelligent networks; and Calix Unlimited Subscriber, a solution for subscriber managed services. It also provides SmartLife managed services, including SmartHome managed services and applications to enhance, operate and secure the connected experience of subscribers in their home for Wi-Fi, advanced content control, network security, connected cameras, and social media monitoring; SmartTown managed services that reimagine community Wi-Fi as a ubiquitous, secure, and managed experience across a BEP's footprint; SmartBiz managed services that address the business networking and productivity needs of business owners with an all-in-one managed service; SMARTMDU managed services provide purpose-built, flexible connectivity solutions for multi-family properties of any type. In addition, the company offers Wi-Fi systems under GigaSpire and GigaPro brands to be ready for deployment as a complete subscriber experience solution for BEP's residential and business subscribers. It provides its products through its direct sales force and resellers. Calix, Inc. was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Calix, Inc reported revenue of $1.0B in FY2025 versus $679M in FY2021, a compound +10.1%/yr. Reported net income was $17.9M in FY2025, compounding −47.7%/yr from FY2021.
CALX screens 85% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- RTC Networks Invests in Calix Agent Workforce To Further Reduce 46% Drop in Churn While Advancing a 5-Year Growth Strategy
- CALIX, INC. (NYSE: CALX) SHAREHOLDER INVESTIGATION ALERT: Bernstein Liebhard Investigates Potential Breaches of Fiduciary Duty
- Do Options Traders Know Something About Calix Stock We Don't?
- Calix Announces Upcoming Investor Events
Peer Group
Software - Infrastructure · 368 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft Corporation MSFT | $384.00 | $274.17 | -29% |
| Oracle Corporation ORAC | C$9.08 | C$2.94 | -68% |
| Fortinet, Inc FTNT | $160.78 | $44.96 | -72% |
| Synopsys, Inc 1SNPS | €354.50 | €93.61 | -74% |
| Block, Inc XYZ | A$114.53 | A$70.69 | -38% |
| CoreWeave, Inc CRWV | $79.94 | $44.89 | -44% |
| Range Intelligent Computing Technology Group 300442 | ¥71.60 | ¥34.00 | -53% |
| Oracle Financial Services Software Limited OFSS | ₹11,651 | ₹5,821 | -50% |
| 360 Security Technology Inc 601360 | ¥9.64 | ¥5.05 | -48% |
| One97 Communications Limited PAYTM | ₹1,342 | ₹181.50 | -86% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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