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Data-driven stock valuation

Calix Inc (CALX) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Calix Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Technology · US · Market cap $2.4B · ISIN US13100M5094

At a glance

CI Calix Inc logo Calix Inc CALX · US
Price$34.44
Fair Value$7.85
Upside−77.2%
Quality66/100

A solid business, but trading 339% above our fair value of $7.85.

As of Sep 2, 2026, the fair value of Calix Inc is $7.85 per share against a price of $34.44, so the fair value sits 77% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +13.1 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.2% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (7/15)
!Narrow moat 34/100
!Weak on past: 18 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 10 out of 100
Evidence: High Range $5.89 to $9.81

Fair value as of: Sep 2, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 8 days ago

Share price −9.8% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($9.81). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$79.97 $27.73 Fair Value $7.85 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $27.73 – $79.97 · fair‑value band $5.89 – $9.81 · the $34.44 price screens above the $7.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Calix Inc (CALX) currently trades at $34.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.85, implying the stock looks roughly 338.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $20.49 per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the $34.44 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $2.77, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Calix Inc generated revenue of $1.1B at a net margin of 3.2%. Revenue grew 27.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $118M. Fundamentals as of Sep 2, 2026

Scenario range: $5.89 (bear) to $9.81 (bull), the price of $34.44 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −77%, CALX screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3396 per share) are deliberately not added.

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $24.37 $41.33 $69.69 78
Growth DCF $24.15 $39.52 $64.21 77
Owner Earnings $5.33 $7.70 $11.67 76
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $24.37 $41.33 $69.69 78
Owner Earnings $5.33 $7.70 $11.67 76
5Y Revenue Exit $11.58 $15.04 $19.13 74
5Y EBITDA Exit $14.63 $21.32 $29.32 75
5Y P/E Exit $13.22 $18.42 $24.04 71
10Y Revenue Exit $15.76 $20.49 $26.70 68
10Y EBITDA Exit $17.84 $24.99 $35.03 69
10Y P/E Exit $16.92 $22.91 $30.71 64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $1.91 $8.83 $12.12 64
Lynch FV $2.33 $3.32 $4.32 61
PEG = 1.0 $2.33 $3.32 $4.32 57
EPV $3.72 $3.96 $4.16 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $1.61 $3.20 $4.85 67
DDM Multi-Stage $1.61 $2.77 $3.38 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $5.89 $7.85 $9.81 63
P/S Multiple $3.57 $4.77 $5.96 58
P/B Multiple $3.57 $4.77 $5.96 55
EV/EBIT $8.15 $10.13 $12.10 66
EV/EBITDA $10.42 $13.15 $15.88 67
EV/Revenue $5.22 $6.51 $7.79 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $6.74 $9.03 $13.47 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $24.15 $39.52 $64.21 77
Rev-Margin DCF $11.58 $15.30 $20.15 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income $9.41 $9.01 $7.06 76
ROIC Compounder $3.72 $3.96 $4.16 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $4.39 $6.28 $8.16 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($20.49) versus Dividend Discount ($2.77). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 70.3
P/S ratio 1.26 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $0.4900 price ÷ EPS = P/E 70.3
Dividend yield 0.5% payout 33.6%
Net margin 1.8% FY2025
Return on equity 4.5% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 3.2% avg 5y
Operating margin 4.5% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $1.1B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +27.1% 3y avg +4.8%
EPS growth (YoY) −98.9%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $116M FY2025
Net cash $118M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 66/100

Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 18

Profitability 47
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 87
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 73
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 83
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 76
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 43
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 12
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 44
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Calix, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of cloud and software platforms, and systems and services in the United States, rest of Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific.

Full company description

Calix, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of cloud and software platforms, and systems and services in the United States, rest of Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. The company cloud and software platforms, and systems and services enable broadband service providers (BSPs) to provide a range of services. It offers Calix Cloud platform comprising Calix Engagement Cloud, Calix Operations Cloud, and Calix Service Cloud, which are configurable to display role-based insights and enable BEPs to anticipate and target new revenue-generating services and applications through mobile application, such as CommandIQ for residents and CommandWorx for businesses; Calix Intelligent Access, an access network solution for automated and intelligent networks; and Calix Unlimited Subscriber, a solution for subscriber managed services. It also provides SmartLife managed services, including SmartHome managed services and applications to enhance, operate and secure the connected experience of subscribers in their home for Wi-Fi, advanced content control, network security, connected cameras, and social media monitoring; SmartTown managed services that reimagine community Wi-Fi as a ubiquitous, secure, and managed experience across a BEP's footprint; SmartBiz managed services that address the business networking and productivity needs of business owners with an all-in-one managed service; SMARTMDU managed services provide purpose-built, flexible connectivity solutions for multi-family properties of any type. In addition, the company offers Wi-Fi systems under GigaSpire and GigaPro brands to be ready for deployment as a complete subscriber experience solution for BEP's residential and business subscribers. It provides its products through its direct sales force and resellers. Calix, Inc. was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Calix Inc reported revenue of $1.0B in FY2025 versus $679M in FY2021, a compound +10.1%/yr. Reported net income was $17.9M in FY2025, compounding −47.7%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 88/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$1.0B
Latest YoY
+20.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (18Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.5%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−12.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share−13.1%
Dividend yield0.5%
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6.8% (2020) → 2.1% (2025) · falling
Worst earnings drop160% (2024) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in USD
Revenue +10.1%/yr
FY21 $679M
FY22 $868M
FY23 $1.0B
FY24 $832M
FY25 $1.0B
Net income −47.7%/yr
FY21 $238M
FY22 $41.0M
FY23 $29.3M
FY24 −$29.7M
FY25 $17.9M

CALX screens 339% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →

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Calix Inc · Fair Value
$7.85 −339%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Calix Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CALX

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Software - Infrastructure · 369 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −78% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 5% · Above median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 27% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.00× · Below median

Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 70.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B 2.91× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.36× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 21.6× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 40.9× · Priciest 25%
PEG 3.34× · Priciest 25%

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Calix Inc deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+7.1 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+13.1 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+8.3 %
FCF yield on price4.76 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models10.3 %

The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 0
FUTURE100 · sector 49
PAST18 · sector 15
HEALTH100 · sector 98
DIVIDEND10 · sector 26

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 2, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Microsoft Corporation MSFT $480.35 $365.74 −24%
Oracle Corporation ORCL $158.78 $117.84 −26%
Palo Alto Networks, Inc PANW $333.26 $36.50 −89%
Fortinet, Inc FTNT $156.29 $61.46 −61%
Synopsys, Inc SNPS $393.84 $101.19 −74%
Block, Inc XYZ A$111.01 A$70.69 −36%
CoreWeave, Inc CRWV $105.26 $71.79 −32%
NetApp, Inc NTAP $190.64 $154.83 −19%
Adyen N.V ADYEN €951.60 €707.53 −26%
MongoDB, Inc MDB $368.74 $93.91 −75%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Calix Inc (CALX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.85 versus a price of $34.44, about −77% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CALX?
Our model-based fair value for Calix Inc is $7.85 (as of Sep 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $34.44.
What is the quality score of CALX?
Calix Inc has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Calix Inc (CALX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.85 (as of Sep 2, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.89, optimistic scenario $9.81. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Calix Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.85, about −77% upside versus a price of $34.44 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.89, optimistic scenario $9.81. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Calix Inc (CALX)?
Calix Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 2, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of CALX?
The net profit margin of Calix Inc is about 3.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Calix Inc pay a dividend?
Calix Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.48% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Calix Inc (CALX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Calix Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +7.1 % per year for ten years (discount rate 10.3 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.1 % per year. As of Sep 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CALX use?
Our models discount Calix Inc at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.23, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of Calix Inc (CALX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Calix Inc it is $7.85 per share (as of Sep 2, 2026), against a price of $34.44. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Calix Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 2, 2026, CALX trades above its calculated fair value: price $34.44, fair value $7.85, a gap of about −77% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CALX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($34.44); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.85). For Calix Inc the two are $26.59 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Calix Inc worth?
The market values Calix Inc at about $2.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 2, 2026). Per share that is $34.44; our models calculate a fair value of $7.85 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CALX?
Our models span a range for Calix Inc: cautious scenario $5.89, base $7.85, optimistic $9.81 per share (as of Sep 2, 2026, price $34.44). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CALX?
Calix Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 70.3 (as of Sep 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $7.85 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.3, P/B 2.9, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 40.9.
What is the PEG ratio of CALX?
The PEG ratio of Calix Inc is 3.34 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 2, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Calix Inc (CALX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Calix Inc (as of Sep 2, 2026): return on equity 4.5%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CALX from its 52-week high?
Calix Inc trades at $34.44, about 52% below its 52-week high of $71.22 (as of Sep 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $7.85 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Calix Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corporation, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, Fortinet, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Calix Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 2, 2026: price $34.44, calculated fair value $7.85 (−77%), Quality Score 66/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CALX calculated?
We run Calix Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $7.85, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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