Deere & Company (DE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Deere & Company stock $263, price $663, that is 60.3% below the price, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with oneYes, for free
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $273.42 – $707.79 · fair‑value band $123.58 – $435.13 · the $663.31 price screens above the $263.46 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
Follow Deere & in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Deere & is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Deere & Company engages in the manufacture and distribution of various equipment worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Production and Precision Agriculture, Small Agriculture and Turf, Construction and Forestry, and Financial Services.
Show moreShow less
The Production and Precision Agriculture segment provides four-wheel-drive track and row crop tractors, harvesters, cotton pickers and strippers, sugarcane harvesters and loaders, soil preparation, tillage, seeding, and crop care equipment, as well as application equipment, including sprayers and nutrient management, soil preparation machinery, and related attachments and service parts.
The Small Agriculture and Turf segment offers specialty, utility, and compact tractors; self-propelled forage harvesters and attachments; rotary mowers, hay and forage equipment, and utility vehicles; turf and utility equipment, including riding lawn, commercial mowing, and golf course equipment, and utility vehicles, as well as implements for mowing, tilling, snow and debris handling, aerating, residential, commercial, golf, and sports turf care applications.
The Construction and Forestry segment provides backhoe loaders, crawler dozers and loaders, four-wheel-drive loaders, excavators, motor graders, articulated dump trucks, skid-steer loaders, milling machines, recyclers, slipform and asphalt pavers, surface miners, compactors, tandem, static rollers, mobile crushers and screens, mobile and stationary asphalt plants, and log harvesters; and road building and rehabilitation equipment.
The Financial Services segment finances sales and leases agriculture and turf, and construction and forestry equipment. It also offers wholesale financing to dealers of the foregoing equipment; and extended equipment warranties.
Deere & Company has a strategic partnership with Tarter USA to develop and produce flex wing rotary cutters. The company was founded in 1837 and is headquartered in Moline, Illinois.
Stock analysis
Deere & Company (DE) currently trades at $663.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $263.46, 60% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $347.83 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $663.31 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $50.69, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $123.58 (bear) to $435.13 (bull), the price of $663.31 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Deere & Company reported revenue of $44.7B in FY2025 versus $43.0B in FY2021, a compound +0.9%/yr. Reported net income was $5.0B in FY2025, compounding −4.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $180B Large · P/E ratio 37.8 · P/S ratio 3.75 · EPS (TTM) $17.57 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 10.2% · Return on equity 18.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 77 out of 100 (high confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at −60%, DE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$123.58Fair Value $263.46Bull$435.13
Price $663.31 · Downside -60.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($11.09 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $23.4M and none bought.
SaleRyan D CampbellPres WWC&F and Pwr Systems3× since Aug 21, 2026: 35,959 shares, avg. $651.74$23.4MAug 31, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleCory J ReedPres, Life Sol Cust Sup & S.M.12,000 shares at $510.00$6.1MJan 14, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJohn C May IIChairman & CEO2× since Nov 25, 2025: 52,578 shares, avg. $501.19$26.4MJan 8, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus 5 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−11.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.7% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.2%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+13.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12.8% vs 12.4%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 19%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+31.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +28.7% a year for the price and −2.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The business quality rests on a solid moat from brand, scale, dealer network and ag tech but is limited by high debt relative to equity.
Main risk: Ongoing FTC and class-action settlements could force Deere to share full diagnostic tools and software with independent repair providers for ten years, eroding exclusivity of its dealer network and pressuring margins on parts and service.
Bull case: Deere could leverage its scale and data platform to integrate independent repair options into its ecosystem while accelerating autonomy and precision subscriptions that raise switching costs for customers.
Bear case: If repair access commoditizes service revenue and Chinese rivals gain traction with cost-competitive machines, Deere's dealer moat and pricing power could weaken substantially over several years.
Deere raised its 2026 sales guidance after construction and forestry equipment orders surged on data center and infrastructure demand, with that segment posting 18% higher sales and 84% profit growth in the latest quarter. Its core agriculture business meanwhile continues to face softer markets. Will the construction tailwinds prove durable enough to lift the overall cycle, or will agriculture weakness keep weighing on results?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 143 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Below median
Fair Value upside−60.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)18.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets4.7% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)10.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)13.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)4.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.68× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Deere & Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DE
Frequently asked questions
Is Deere & Company (DE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $263.46 versus a price of $663.31, about 60% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DE?
Our model-based fair value for Deere & Company is $263.46 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $663.31.
What is the quality score of DE?
Deere & Company has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Deere & Company (DE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $263.46 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $123.58, optimistic scenario $435.13. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Deere & Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $263.46, about 60% lower versus a price of $663.31 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $123.58, optimistic scenario $435.13. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Deere & Company (DE)?
Deere & Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $47.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Deere & Company pay a dividend?
Deere & Company currently shows a dividend yield of 0.98% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Deere & Company (DE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Deere & Company would have to grow free cash flow by +31.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.2 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DE use?
Our models discount Deere & Company at 8.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.87, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Deere & Company that is +31.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Deere & Company (DE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Deere & Company grew +5.2 % a year. The price currently implies +31.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Deere & Company (DE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Deere & Company (+31.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Deere & Company (DE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.80 %: that much free cash flow Deere & Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Deere & Company (DE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Deere & Company it is $263.46 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $663.31. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Deere & Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, DE trades above its calculated fair value: price $663.31, fair value $263.46, a gap of about −60% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($663.31); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($263.46). For Deere & Company the two are $399.85 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Deere & Company worth?
The market values Deere & Company at about $180B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $663.31; our models calculate a fair value of $263.46 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DE?
Our models span a range for Deere & Company: cautious scenario $123.58, base $263.46, optimistic $435.13 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $663.31). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DE?
Deere & Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 37.8 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $263.46 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2020 ex one-offs: 18.2. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 6.9, P/S 3.7, EV/EBITDA 25.0.
What is the PEG ratio of DE?
The PEG ratio of Deere & Company is 1.59 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Deere & Company (DE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Deere & Company (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 18.2%, debt of 1.68 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DE from its 52-week high?
Deere & Company trades at $663.31, about 6% below its 52-week high of $707.79 and 45% above the low of $457.64 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $263.46 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Deere & Company?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Caterpillar Inc, PACCAR Inc, Daimler Truck Holding, Sany Heavy Industry Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Deere & Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $663.31, calculated fair value $263.46 (−60%), Quality Score 53/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DE calculated?
We run Deere & Company through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $263.46, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Deere & Company itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Deere & Company (DE)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $663.31. Our model-based fair value is $263.46, about 60% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Deere & Company right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($435.13). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($123.58 to $435.13). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Deere & Company (DE) come from?
Earnings per share at Deere & Company grew +16.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.6 %, EBIT margin +8.3 %, tax rate +1.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Deere & Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Deere & Company (DE)?
The market capitalisation of Deere & Company is $180B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Deere & Company (DE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Deere & Company is 3.75 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Deere & Company (DE)?
Earnings per share at Deere & Company are $17.57 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 37.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Deere & Company (DE)?
The dividend yield of Deere & Company is 1.0% (payout 36.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Deere & Company (DE)?
The net margin of Deere & Company is 10.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Deere & Company (DE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Deere & Company is 18.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Deere & Company (DE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Deere & Company is 10.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Deere & Company (DE)?
The operating margin of Deere & Company is 13.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Deere & Company (DE)?
Revenue at Deere & Company is growing +4.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Deere & Company (DE)?
Earnings per share at Deere & Company are growing +7.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Deere & Company (DE) carry?
The net debt of Deere & Company is $55.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 17.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Deere & Company in the live analysis
One click puts Deere & Company on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Broad data
Nov 5, 2026