DiDi Global Inc. (DIDIY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of DiDi Global Inc. stock $2.30, price $3.21, that is 28.3% below the price, quality 60 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 18 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Our calculation puts a fair price 28% below what the stock costs today.
Quality 60/100
Healthy Growth(revenue 5y +10.5 %/yr in CNY)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Profit last quarter +195% vs. a year ago.
Thin margins · 0.3% net margin (TTM)
Mixed vs. peers(6/11)
Fair value $2.30 · Overvalued (−28.3%)
Narrow moat22/100
Downbeat coverage
Thin data
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Lingering regulatory scrutiny over data practices🚩VIE structure could jeopardise control over China operations🚩Bid-based models like inDrive could undercut prices in emerging markets
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.44 – $9.81 · fair‑value band $2.25 – $2.46 · the $3.21 price screens above the $2.30 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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DiDi Global Inc. operates a mobility technology platform that provides various mobility and other services in the People's Republic of China, Brazil, Mexico, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: China Mobility, International, and Other Initiatives.
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It offers ride hailing, chauffeur, hitch, online taxi, and other forms of shared mobility services; food delivery and financial services; and bike and e-bike sharing, energy and vehicle, intra-city freight, and autonomous driving services.
The company was formerly known as Xiaoju Kuaizhi Inc. and changed its name to DiDi Global Inc. in June 2021. The company was founded in 2012 and is based in Beijing, China.
Stock analysis
DiDi Global Inc. (DIDIY) currently trades at $3.21, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.30, 28% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $5.59 per share, and 7 of the 18 models we run sit above the $3.21 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.3000, and 11 of the 18 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $2.25 (bear) to $2.46 (bull), the price of $3.21 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
DiDi Global Inc. reported revenue of 221B CNY in FY2025 versus 172B CNY in FY2021, a compound +6.5%/yr. Reported net income was 965M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $14.5B Large · P/S ratio 0.06 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0400 · Net margin 0.3% · Return on equity 0.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −9.8% (5-year average) · Operating margin 1.7% · Revenue (TTM) 238B CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 22 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −28%, DIDIY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$2.25Fair Value $2.30Bull$2.46
Price $3.21 · Downside -28.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.77/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.6%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−9.7% (2020) → −2.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−9.6%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −11.1% a year for the price and +7.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (49 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: DiDi's main strength is its scale in China mobility operations, while its main weak point is persistently thin margins and regulatory overhang that limit durable advantage signals.
Main risk: DiDi relies on variable interest entity contracts for most of its revenues, and any PRC finding that these arrangements violate regulations could force relinquishment of control over its core Chinese mobility platform and hit operations and margins.
Bull case: DiDi could leverage its robotaxi investments and partnerships in Southeast Asia to integrate autonomous services and expand its hybrid mobility network profitably beyond China while maintaining platform control.
Bear case: Challenges to the VIE structure or successful inroads by bid-based rivals could erode DiDi's dominance in its home market and limit scalable growth abroad, leaving the platform with thinner margins and fragmented operations.
DiDi is channeling capital into Southeast Asian platforms like Grab alongside SoftBank to broaden its mobility and payments reach beyond China. At the same time it resolves a major 2021 IPO lawsuit while regulatory scrutiny over data practices lingers. Will these moves deliver scalable growth outside its home market or mainly spread resources thinner against ongoing domestic constraints?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 630 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside−28.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)0.8% · Below median
Return on assets0.6% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)0.3% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)1.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)10.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.99× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months)0.41× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)15.0× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 29
FUTURE (revenue growth)54· sector 40
PAST (return on equity)3· sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 29
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "DiDi Global Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DIDIY
Frequently asked questions
Is DiDi Global Inc. (DIDIY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.30 versus a price of $3.21, about 28% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DIDIY?
Our model-based fair value for DiDi Global Inc. is $2.30 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.21.
What is the quality score of DIDIY?
DiDi Global Inc. has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for DiDi Global Inc. (DIDIY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.30 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 18 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.25, optimistic scenario $2.46. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the DiDi Global Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.30, about 28% lower versus a price of $3.21 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.25, optimistic scenario $2.46. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of DiDi Global Inc. (DIDIY)?
DiDi Global Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 238B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into DiDi Global Inc. (DIDIY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, DiDi Global Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by -9.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.5 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DIDIY use?
Our models discount DiDi Global Inc. at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.52, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For DiDi Global Inc. that is -9.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has DiDi Global Inc. (DIDIY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at DiDi Global Inc. grew +10.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -9.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of DiDi Global Inc. (DIDIY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into DiDi Global Inc. (-9.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of DiDi Global Inc. (DIDIY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.68 %: that much free cash flow DiDi Global Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of DiDi Global Inc. (DIDIY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For DiDi Global Inc. it is $2.30 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $3.21. It is the blended result of 18 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is DiDi Global Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, DIDIY trades above its calculated fair value: price $3.21, fair value $2.30, a gap of about −28% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DIDIY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.21); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.30). For DiDi Global Inc. the two are $0.9100 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is DiDi Global Inc. worth?
The market values DiDi Global Inc. at about $14.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $3.21; our models calculate a fair value of $2.30 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DIDIY?
Our models span a range for DiDi Global Inc.: cautious scenario $2.25, base $2.30, optimistic $2.46 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $3.21). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of DiDi Global Inc. (DIDIY)?
Balance-sheet figures for DiDi Global Inc. (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 0.8%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DIDIY from its 52-week high?
DiDi Global Inc. trades at $3.21, about 44% below its 52-week high of $5.75 and 6% above the low of $3.03 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.30 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to DiDi Global Inc.?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Salesforce, Inc, Shopify Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is DiDi Global Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $3.21, calculated fair value $2.30 (−28%), Quality Score 60/100, from 18 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DIDIY calculated?
We run DiDi Global Inc. through 18 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $2.30 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. DiDi Global Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of DiDi Global Inc. (DIDIY)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $3.21. Our model-based fair value is $2.30, about 28% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with DiDi Global Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.46). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The models converge in a tight band ($2.25 to $2.46), unusually little disagreement for a valuation. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of DiDi Global Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of DiDi Global Inc. (DIDIY)?
The market capitalisation of DiDi Global Inc. is $14.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of DiDi Global Inc. (DIDIY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of DiDi Global Inc. is 0.06 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of DiDi Global Inc. (DIDIY)?
Earnings per share at DiDi Global Inc. are $−0.0400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of DiDi Global Inc. (DIDIY)?
The net margin of DiDi Global Inc. is 0.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of DiDi Global Inc. (DIDIY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of DiDi Global Inc. is 0.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of DiDi Global Inc. (DIDIY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of DiDi Global Inc. is −9.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of DiDi Global Inc. (DIDIY)?
The operating margin of DiDi Global Inc. is 1.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at DiDi Global Inc. (DIDIY)?
Revenue at DiDi Global Inc. is growing +10.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at DiDi Global Inc. (DIDIY)?
Earnings per share at DiDi Global Inc. are growing +195% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does DiDi Global Inc. (DIDIY) hold?
DiDi Global Inc. holds more cash than debt, 3.0B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 8, 2026