Dyno Nobel Ltd (DNL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Dyno Nobel Ltd stock A$1.90, price A$3.82, that is 50.3% below the price, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$1.92 – A$4.16 · fair‑value band A$1.08 – A$2.67 · the A$3.82 price screens above the A$1.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Dyno Nobel Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes industrial explosives, chemicals, and fertilizers in the United States and Australia.
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It offers packaged explosives, including Powermite, a cartridge explosive; and Dynosplit for pre-split applications, as well as ammonium nitrates.
The company also provides initiation systems, such as BlastWeb II, an underground blasting system; CE4 Commander Blasting System and DigiShot Plus.4G, an electronic blasting systems; and electronic detonators, such as DigiShot, DigiShot Plus, DigiShot Plus.4G, and GeoShot for a range of applications, such as surface and underground mining, quarrying, and construction, as well as bulk technologies under TITAN series and software products, such as ViewShot 3D, DIFFERENTIAL ENERGY2, and Nobel Fire.
It exports its products. It also provides Dyno Consult and Drill and Blast Academies services; DYNOBULK FLEX, and Portable Modular Emulsion plants. The company was formerly known as Incitec Pivot Limited and changed its name to Dyno Nobel Limited in March 2025.
Dyno Nobel Limited was founded in 1831 and is headquartered in Fortitude Valley, Australia.
Stock analysis
Dyno Nobel Ltd (DNL) currently trades at A$3.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$1.90, 50% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of A$2.50 per share, and 2 of the 23 models we run sit above the A$3.82 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.6900, and 21 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: A$1.08 (bear) to A$2.67 (bull), the price of A$3.82 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Dyno Nobel Ltd reported revenue of A$3.7B in FY2025 versus A$4.3B in FY2021, a compound −3.9%/yr. Reported net income was A$146M in FY2025, compounding −0.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap A$6.9B (≈ $4.7B) Mid · P/E ratio 27.3 · P/S ratio 1.07 · EPS (TTM) A$0.1400 · Dividend yield 3.7% · Net margin 3.9% · Return on equity 5.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.1% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 36 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at −50%, DNL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$1.08Fair Value A$1.90BullA$2.67
Price A$3.82 · Downside -50.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.66/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +3.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +0.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 0.2% / −6.4%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 13%
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2020 (starting value 0.077 per share, median 0.16 in 2015 to 2018). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+31.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−2.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +27.8% a year for the price and −5.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (7 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Modest returns on equity and assets reflect thin evidence of durable strengths in explosives, while the pure-play focus supports trials of autonomous blasting technology.
Main risk: Slow adoption of autonomous blasting technology in mining would limit the safety and efficiency gains targeted for global explosives operations.
Dyno Nobel now runs as a pure-play explosives company after its fertilizer exit. It has started US trials of autonomous blasting technology that automates high-risk tasks from a remote control center after five years of development. Will the safety and efficiency gains from this automation strengthen its global operations or encounter slow adoption in mining?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 727 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−50.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)5.8% · Below median
Return on assets1.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)−1.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)11.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)9.2% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.28× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Dyno Nobel Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DNL
Frequently asked questions
Is Dyno Nobel Ltd (DNL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$1.90 versus a price of A$3.82, about 50% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DNL?
Our model-based fair value for Dyno Nobel Ltd is A$1.90 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$3.82.
What is the quality score of DNL?
Dyno Nobel Ltd has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Dyno Nobel Ltd (DNL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$1.90 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$1.08, optimistic scenario A$2.67. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Dyno Nobel Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$1.90, about 50% lower versus a price of A$3.82 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$1.08, optimistic scenario A$2.67. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Dyno Nobel Ltd (DNL)?
Dyno Nobel Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$3.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Dyno Nobel Ltd pay a dividend?
Dyno Nobel Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 3.69% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Dyno Nobel Ltd (DNL) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Dyno Nobel Ltd pays a dividend of A$0.141 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.7%. The last ex-dividend date was Jun 12, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2021. The payout ratio is 101% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.41 times. Our assessment: Pays more than it earns. The company pays out more in dividends than it earns, and free cash flow clearly does not cover the dividend either. It may need to be cut unless profits recover.
What growth is priced into Dyno Nobel Ltd (DNL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Dyno Nobel Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +31.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.2 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DNL use?
Our models discount Dyno Nobel Ltd at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.41, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Dyno Nobel Ltd that is +31.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Dyno Nobel Ltd (DNL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Dyno Nobel Ltd grew -1.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +31.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Dyno Nobel Ltd (DNL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Dyno Nobel Ltd (+31.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Dyno Nobel Ltd (DNL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.46 %: that much free cash flow Dyno Nobel Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Dyno Nobel Ltd (DNL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Dyno Nobel Ltd it is A$1.90 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of A$3.82. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Dyno Nobel Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, DNL trades above its calculated fair value: price A$3.82, fair value A$1.90, a gap of about −50% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DNL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$3.82); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$1.90). For Dyno Nobel Ltd the two are A$1.92 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Dyno Nobel Ltd worth?
The market values Dyno Nobel Ltd at about A$6.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is A$3.82; our models calculate a fair value of A$1.90 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DNL?
Our models span a range for Dyno Nobel Ltd: cautious scenario A$1.08, base A$1.90, optimistic A$2.67 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price A$3.82). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DNL?
Dyno Nobel Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.3 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$1.90 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 31.9. Other multiples: PEG 44.7, P/B 1.6, P/S 1.8, EV/EBITDA 9.3.
What is the PEG ratio of DNL?
The PEG ratio of Dyno Nobel Ltd is 44.72 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Dyno Nobel Ltd (DNL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Dyno Nobel Ltd (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 5.8%, debt of 0.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DNL from its 52-week high?
Dyno Nobel Ltd trades at A$3.82, about 8% below its 52-week high of A$4.16 and 33% above the low of A$2.88 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$1.90 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Dyno Nobel Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, Ecolab Inc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Nan Ya Plastics Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Dyno Nobel Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price A$3.82, calculated fair value A$1.90 (−50%), Quality Score 56/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DNL calculated?
We run Dyno Nobel Ltd through 23 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$1.90 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Dyno Nobel Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Dyno Nobel Ltd (DNL)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was A$3.82. Our model-based fair value is A$1.90, about 50% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Dyno Nobel Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$2.67). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (A$1.08 to A$2.67) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Dyno Nobel Ltd (DNL) come from?
Earnings per share at Dyno Nobel Ltd grew +2.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.6 %, EBIT margin −3.4 %, tax rate +1.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Dyno Nobel Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Dyno Nobel Ltd (DNL)?
The market capitalisation of Dyno Nobel Ltd is A$6.9B (≈ $4.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Dyno Nobel Ltd (DNL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Dyno Nobel Ltd is 1.07 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Dyno Nobel Ltd (DNL)?
Earnings per share at Dyno Nobel Ltd are A$0.1400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 27.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Dyno Nobel Ltd (DNL)?
The dividend yield of Dyno Nobel Ltd is 3.7% (payout 101%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Dyno Nobel Ltd (DNL)?
The net margin of Dyno Nobel Ltd is 3.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Dyno Nobel Ltd (DNL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Dyno Nobel Ltd is 5.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Dyno Nobel Ltd (DNL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Dyno Nobel Ltd is 6.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Dyno Nobel Ltd (DNL)?
The operating margin of Dyno Nobel Ltd is 11.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Dyno Nobel Ltd (DNL)?
Revenue at Dyno Nobel Ltd is growing +9.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −16.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Dyno Nobel Ltd (DNL)?
Earnings per share at Dyno Nobel Ltd are growing +220% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Dyno Nobel Ltd (DNL) carry?
The net debt of Dyno Nobel Ltd is A$1.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 18.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 7, 2026