EastGroup Properties Inc (EGP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of EastGroup Properties Inc stock $102, price $194, that is 47.2% below the price, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $121.56 – $221.45 · fair‑value band $61.03 – $157.92 · the $193.81 price screens above the $102.26 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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EastGroup Properties, Inc. a member of the S&P Mid-Cap 400 and Russell 2000 Indexes.
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It is a self-administered equity real estate investment trust focused on the development, acquisition and operation of industrial properties in high-growth markets throughout the United States with an emphasis in the states of Texas, Florida, California, Arizona and North Carolina.
The Company's goal is to maximize shareholder value by being a leading provider in its markets of functional, flexible and quality business distribution space for location sensitive customers (primarily in the 20,000 to 100,000 square foot range).
The Company's strategy for growth is based on ownership of premier distribution facilities generally clustered near major transportation features in supply-constrained submarkets.
East Groups portfolio, including development projects and value-add acquisitions in lease-up and under construction, currently includes approximately 65.5 million square feet. EastGroup Properties, Inc. was incorporated in 1969 and is based in Ridgeland, United States.
Stock analysis
EastGroup Properties Inc (EGP) currently trades at $193.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $102.26, 47% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $138.82 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the $193.81 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $43.08, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $61.03 (bear) to $157.92 (bull), the price of $193.81 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
EastGroup Properties Inc reported revenue of $721M in FY2025 versus $409M in FY2021, a compound +15.2%/yr. Reported net income was $257M in FY2025, compounding +13.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $10.4B Large · P/E ratio 34.0 · P/S ratio 13.9 · EPS (TTM) $5.70 · Dividend yield 3.3% · Net margin 40.6% · Return on equity 8.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.9% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 67 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −47%, EGP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$61.03Fair Value $102.26Bull$157.92
Price $193.81 · Downside -47.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $421,372 and none bought.
SaleStaci H. TylerExecutive Vice President, CFO1,600 shares at $201.69$322,704Oct 23, 2026
SaleDavid Michael FieldsDirector504 shares at $195.77$98,668Jun 4, 2026
Plus 9 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.9% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+11.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8.3% vs 12.2%, slowing
Profit margin 1985 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.108% → 40%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +13.1% a year for the price and +5.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (89 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Decent cash conversion and margins support the industrial REIT while limited differentiation in human capital and innovation constrains its edge.
Main risk: Larger REITs such as Prologis and private funds like Blackstone could outbid EastGroup for development sites and tenants in Sun Belt markets, limiting expansion or compressing acquisition yields and margins.
Bull case: EastGroup could leverage its low-leverage balance sheet and entitled land bank to secure sites ahead of rivals and capture sustained demand from data center suppliers and advanced manufacturing.
Bear case: If larger competitors and data center developers continue to dominate land bids and drive up costs, EastGroup's development pipeline could shrink, slowing portfolio growth and pressuring margins in its core shallow-bay segment.
EastGroup Properties targets shallow-bay industrial assets in fast-growing Sun Belt markets. Demand from data centers and advanced manufacturing continues to drive strong leasing momentum and occupancy. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will specialized tenant exposure generate enough sustained growth to overcome valuation concerns or will higher rates and broader economic slowdowns dominate?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Industrial · 51 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Below median
Fair Value upside−47.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.7% · Above median
Return on assets4.7% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)40.6% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)40.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)9.1% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.46× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Industrial median · lower = cheaper
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Is EastGroup Properties Inc (EGP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $102.26 versus a price of $193.81, about 47% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of EGP?
Our model-based fair value for EastGroup Properties Inc is $102.26 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $193.81.
What is the quality score of EGP?
EastGroup Properties Inc has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for EastGroup Properties Inc (EGP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $102.26 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $61.03, optimistic scenario $157.92. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the EastGroup Properties Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $102.26, about 47% lower versus a price of $193.81 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $61.03, optimistic scenario $157.92. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of EastGroup Properties Inc (EGP)?
EastGroup Properties Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $751M (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does EastGroup Properties Inc pay a dividend?
EastGroup Properties Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 3.30% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of EastGroup Properties Inc (EGP) and when is the ex-dividend date?
EastGroup Properties Inc pays a dividend of $6.40 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.3%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 30, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1985. The payout ratio is 112% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.18 times. Our assessment: Payout strained. The dividend exceeds reported earnings (though reported profit is often depressed by one-off charges), and free cash flow only just covers it (or coverage is unknown). Not an emergency, but little room for error.
What growth is priced into EastGroup Properties Inc (EGP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, EastGroup Properties Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +15.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.7 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EGP use?
Our models discount EastGroup Properties Inc at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.02, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For EastGroup Properties Inc that is +15.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has EastGroup Properties Inc (EGP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at EastGroup Properties Inc grew +14.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +15.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of EastGroup Properties Inc (EGP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into EastGroup Properties Inc (+15.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of EastGroup Properties Inc (EGP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.88 %: that much free cash flow EastGroup Properties Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of EastGroup Properties Inc (EGP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For EastGroup Properties Inc it is $102.26 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of $193.81. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is EastGroup Properties Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, EGP trades above its calculated fair value: price $193.81, fair value $102.26, a gap of about −47% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EGP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($193.81); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($102.26). For EastGroup Properties Inc the two are $91.55 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is EastGroup Properties Inc worth?
The market values EastGroup Properties Inc at about $10.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is $193.81; our models calculate a fair value of $102.26 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EGP?
Our models span a range for EastGroup Properties Inc: cautious scenario $61.03, base $102.26, optimistic $157.92 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price $193.81). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of EGP?
EastGroup Properties Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 34.0 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $102.26 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 8 of the years ex one-offs: 36.7. Other multiples: PEG 8.4, P/B 3.0, P/S 13.9, EV/EBITDA 24.5.
What is the PEG ratio of EGP?
The PEG ratio of EastGroup Properties Inc is 8.42 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of EastGroup Properties Inc (EGP)?
Balance-sheet figures for EastGroup Properties Inc (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 8.7%, debt of 0.46 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EGP from its 52-week high?
EastGroup Properties Inc trades at $193.81, about 12% below its 52-week high of $221.45 and 15% above the low of $168.78 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $102.26 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to EastGroup Properties Inc?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Prologis, Inc, Public Storage, Extra Space Storage Inc, CubeSmart, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is EastGroup Properties Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price $193.81, calculated fair value $102.26 (−47%), Quality Score 55/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EGP calculated?
We run EastGroup Properties Inc through 16 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $102.26 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. EastGroup Properties Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of EastGroup Properties Inc (EGP)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $193.81. Our model-based fair value is $102.26, about 47% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with EastGroup Properties Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($157.92). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($61.03 to $157.92) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of EastGroup Properties Inc (EGP) come from?
Earnings per share at EastGroup Properties Inc grew +15.3 % a year from 2012 to 2023. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.0 %, EBIT margin +8.5 %, tax rate +6.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −6.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of EastGroup Properties Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of EastGroup Properties Inc (EGP)?
The market capitalisation of EastGroup Properties Inc is $10.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of EastGroup Properties Inc (EGP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of EastGroup Properties Inc is 13.9 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of EastGroup Properties Inc (EGP)?
Earnings per share at EastGroup Properties Inc are $5.70 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 34.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of EastGroup Properties Inc (EGP)?
The dividend yield of EastGroup Properties Inc is 3.3% (payout 112%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of EastGroup Properties Inc (EGP)?
The net margin of EastGroup Properties Inc is 40.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of EastGroup Properties Inc (EGP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of EastGroup Properties Inc is 8.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of EastGroup Properties Inc (EGP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of EastGroup Properties Inc is 7.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of EastGroup Properties Inc (EGP)?
The operating margin of EastGroup Properties Inc is 40.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at EastGroup Properties Inc (EGP)?
Revenue at EastGroup Properties Inc is growing +9.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at EastGroup Properties Inc (EGP)?
Earnings per share at EastGroup Properties Inc are growing +16.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does EastGroup Properties Inc (EGP) carry?
The net debt of EastGroup Properties Inc is $1.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 9, 2026