Fincantieri SpA (FCT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Fincantieri SpA stock €8.27, price €11.69, that is 29.3% below the price, quality 42 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €3.55 – €26.92 · fair‑value band €5.12 – €12.06 · the €11.69 price screens above the €8.27 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Fincantieri S.p.A. operates in the shipbuilding industry worldwide. It operates through four segments: Shipbuilding; Offshore and Specialized Vessels; Underwater; and Equipment, Systems, and Infrastructure.
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The company designs and constructs cruise ships, submarines, offshore support vessels, specialized vessels, and offshore wind plant vessels, as well as semi-submersible drilling ships and platforms products; cable-laying vessels and ferries; unmanned vessels; expedition cruise vessels; and aircraft carriers, destroyers, frigates, corvettes, patrol vessels, amphibious and logistic support ships, multirole and research vessels, and special vessels.
It also provides product lifecycle management, and training and assistance services; cabins, wet units, public areas, catering, glazing, and interior design solutions; and ship repairs, refitting, conversions, and refurbishment services, as well as products that reduce environmental impact.
In addition, the company offers technologies in the field of effectors, acoustic sensors, unmanned, radar, advanced communication systems, and top-side systems of autonomous vessels.
Further, it provides electrical, and electronic and electromechanical integrated systems; stabilization, propulsion, positioning, and power generation systems; and steam turbines, as well as designs and integrates systems on automation, cyber security, telecommunications, and critical infrastructures and designs, constructs, and assembles bridges, viaducts, airports, ports, maritime/hydraulic works, large commercial and industrial buildings, and facility management.
Additionally, the company provides dry-dock management; engineering, project, and supply chain management; IT consultancy; mechanical products sale and after-sale; marine diesel engine maintenance; technological research and development; ship accommodation services; and charters boats, ships, and barges.
Fincantieri S.p.A. was founded in 1959 and is headquartered in Trieste, Italy.
Stock analysis
Fincantieri SpA (FCT) currently trades at €11.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €8.27, 29% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €11.16 per share, and 4 of the 22 models we run sit above the €11.69 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €4.01, and 18 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €5.12 (bear) to €12.06 (bull), the price of €11.69 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Fincantieri SpA reported revenue of €9.2B in FY2025 versus €6.8B in FY2021, a compound +7.8%/yr. Reported net income was €123M in FY2025, compounding +54.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €4.5B Mid · P/E ratio 22.1 · P/S ratio 0.51 · EPS (TTM) €0.5300 · Net margin 2.2% · Return on equity 14.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin 4.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 36 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −29%, FCT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€5.12Fair Value €8.27Bull€12.06
Price €11.69 · Downside -29.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.4545 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.3% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+97.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+97.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.97.3% vs 30.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−2% → 4%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+19.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.8% a year for the price and +6.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (50 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: The business gains from broadening into vertically integrated underwater subsea technologies, while its main weakness is thin margins and high leverage that limit returns on the backlog.
Main risk: Integration challenges from the new subsea acquisitions could prevent turning the large backlog into consistent profits and thereby hit margins and returns.
Fincantieri is expanding into a vertically integrated underwater business by acquiring stakes in four subsea technology companies. This move broadens its defense and commercial capabilities beyond core shipbuilding, yet turning the massive backlog into consistent profits still hinges on execution. Will the new underwater assets drive faster growth or mainly increase integration risks?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 238 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Below median
Fair Value upside−29.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)14.9% · Above median
Return on assets1.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)2.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)4.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−2.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.39× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)22.1× · Cheaper than median
P/B4.49× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)0.51× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)22.0× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA8.8× · Cheapest 25%
PEG0.28× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 65
PAST (return on equity)60· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)30· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 19
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Fincantieri SpA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FCT
Frequently asked questions
Is Fincantieri SpA (FCT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €8.27 versus a price of €11.69, about 29% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FCT?
Our model-based fair value for Fincantieri SpA is €8.27 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €11.69.
What is the quality score of FCT?
Fincantieri SpA has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Fincantieri SpA (FCT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €8.27 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario €5.12, optimistic scenario €12.06. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Fincantieri SpA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €8.27, about 29% lower versus a price of €11.69 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €5.12, optimistic scenario €12.06. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Fincantieri SpA (FCT)?
Fincantieri SpA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €8.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
What growth is priced into Fincantieri SpA (FCT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Fincantieri SpA would have to grow free cash flow by +19.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.7 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FCT use?
Our models discount Fincantieri SpA at 11.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.79, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Fincantieri SpA that is +19.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Fincantieri SpA (FCT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Fincantieri SpA grew +9.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +19.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Fincantieri SpA (FCT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Fincantieri SpA (+19.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Fincantieri SpA (FCT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.04 %: that much free cash flow Fincantieri SpA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Fincantieri SpA (FCT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Fincantieri SpA it is €8.27 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of €11.69. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Fincantieri SpA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, FCT trades above its calculated fair value: price €11.69, fair value €8.27, a gap of about −29% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FCT?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€11.69); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€8.27). For Fincantieri SpA the two are €3.42 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Fincantieri SpA worth?
The market values Fincantieri SpA at about €4.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is €11.69; our models calculate a fair value of €8.27 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FCT?
Our models span a range for Fincantieri SpA: cautious scenario €5.12, base €8.27, optimistic €12.06 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price €11.69). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FCT?
Fincantieri SpA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.1 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €8.27 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 27.9 (reported for FY2025: 31.8). Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 4.5, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 8.8.
What is the PEG ratio of FCT?
The PEG ratio of Fincantieri SpA is 0.28 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Fincantieri SpA (FCT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Fincantieri SpA (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 14.9%, debt of 1.39 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FCT from its 52-week high?
Fincantieri SpA trades at €11.69, about 44% below its 52-week high of €20.72 and 19% above the low of €9.81 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €8.27 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Fincantieri SpA?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Fincantieri SpA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price €11.69, calculated fair value €8.27 (−29%), Quality Score 42/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FCT calculated?
We run Fincantieri SpA through 22 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €8.27 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Fincantieri SpA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Fincantieri SpA (FCT)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €11.69. Our model-based fair value is €8.27, about 29% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Fincantieri SpA right now?
Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (€5.12 to €12.06) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Fincantieri SpA
How large is the market capitalisation of Fincantieri SpA (FCT)?
The market capitalisation of Fincantieri SpA is €4.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Fincantieri SpA (FCT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Fincantieri SpA is 0.51 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Fincantieri SpA (FCT)?
Earnings per share at Fincantieri SpA are €0.5300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Fincantieri SpA (FCT)?
The net margin of Fincantieri SpA is 2.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Fincantieri SpA (FCT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Fincantieri SpA is 14.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Fincantieri SpA (FCT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Fincantieri SpA is 1.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Fincantieri SpA (FCT)?
The operating margin of Fincantieri SpA is 4.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Fincantieri SpA (FCT)?
Revenue at Fincantieri SpA is growing −2.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Fincantieri SpA (FCT)?
Earnings per share at Fincantieri SpA are growing +155% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Fincantieri SpA (FCT) carry?
The net debt of Fincantieri SpA is €1.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 7, 2026