Fincantieri S.p.A (FCT) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · IT · Market cap €4.1B
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from €8.74 to €7.21 (−17.5%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +10.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 43% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€9.01). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (€4.91 to €9.01) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €3.55 – €26.92 · fair‑value band €4.91 – €9.01 · the €12.75 price screens above the €7.21 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Fincantieri S.p.A (FCT) currently trades at €12.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €7.21, implying the stock looks roughly 43.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Fincantieri S.p.A generated revenue of €8.9B at a net margin of 1.4%. Revenue declined 7.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.8%. Net debt stands at €1.7B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €4.91 (bear case) to €9.01 (bull case); at €12.75, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -59% fair-value upside, at -43%, FCT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (€9.60) versus Dividend Discount (€0.7100). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Fincantieri S.p.A. operates in the shipbuilding industry worldwide. It operates through four segments: Shipbuilding; Offshore and Specialized Vessels; Underwater; and Equipment, Systems, and Infrastructure.
Full company description
Fincantieri S.p.A. operates in the shipbuilding industry worldwide. It operates through four segments: Shipbuilding; Offshore and Specialized Vessels; Underwater; and Equipment, Systems, and Infrastructure. The company designs and constructs cruise ships, submarines, offshore support vessels, specialized vessels, and offshore wind plant vessels, as well as semi-submersible drilling ships and platforms products; cable-laying vessels and ferries; unmanned vessels; expedition cruise vessels; and aircraft carriers, destroyers, frigates, corvettes, patrol vessels, amphibious and logistic support ships, multirole and research vessels, and special vessels. It also provides product lifecycle management, and training and assistance services; cabins, wet units, public areas, catering, glazing, and interior design solutions; and ship repairs, refitting, conversions, and refurbishment services, as well as products that reduce environmental impact. In addition, the company offers technologies in the field of effectors, acoustic sensors, unmanned, radar, advanced communication systems, and top-side systems of autonomous vessels. Further, it provides electrical, and electronic and electromechanical integrated systems; stabilization, propulsion, positioning, and power generation systems; and steam turbines, as well as designs and integrates systems on automation, cyber security, telecommunications, and critical infrastructures and designs, constructs, and assembles bridges, viaducts, airports, ports, maritime/hydraulic works, large commercial and industrial buildings, and facility management. Additionally, the company provides dry-dock management; engineering, project, and supply chain management; IT consultancy; mechanical products sale and after-sale; marine diesel engine maintenance; technological research and development; ship accommodation services; and charters boats, ships, and barges. Fincantieri S.p.A. was founded in 1959 and is headquartered in Trieste, Italy.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Fincantieri S.p.A reported revenue of €9.2B in FY2025 versus €6.8B in FY2021, a compound +7.8%/yr. Reported net income was €123M in FY2025, compounding +54.2%/yr from FY2021.
FCT screens 43% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Fincantieri SpA (FNCNF) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Profits and Strategic Growth ...
- Assessing Fincantieri (BIT:FCT) Valuation After Recent Share Price Weakness
- Fincantieri to Build Spectre, a New Class of High-Speed Unmanned Surface Vessel
Peer Group
Aerospace & Defense · 226 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Electric Company GE | $381.22 | $116.71 | -69% |
| RTX Corporation RTX | $195.93 | $88.37 | -55% |
| Airbus SE 1AIR | €213.25 | €86.20 | -60% |
| The Boeing Company BA | $217.11 | $48.20 | -78% |
| China CSSC Holdings 600150 | ¥34.31 | ¥21.90 | -36% |
| HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co 329180 | 466,000 KRW | 272,966 KRW | -41% |
| Hanwha Aerospace Co 012450 | 967,000 KRW | 573,468 KRW | -41% |
| ASELSAN Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi ASELS | 337.50 TRY | 130.70 TRY | -61% |
| Saab AB SAABB | kr 520.40 | kr 212.84 | -59% |
| Kongsberg Gruppen ASA KOG | kr 277.50 | kr 106.93 | -61% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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