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Fincantieri S.p.A (FCT) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · IT · Market cap €4.1B

FS Fincantieri S.p.A FCT · MI
Price€12.75
Fair Value€7.21
Upside-43.5%
Quality47/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 1.4% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (6/14)
Narrow moat 35/100
Evidence: High Range €4.91 – €9.01 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 24 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from €8.74 to €7.21 (−17.5%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +10.2% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 43% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€9.01). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range (€4.91 to €9.01) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€26.92 €3.55 Fair Value €7.21 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €3.55 – €26.92 · fair‑value band €4.91 – €9.01 · the €12.75 price screens above the €7.21 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

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Analysis

Fincantieri S.p.A (FCT) currently trades at €12.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €7.21, implying the stock looks roughly 43.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Fincantieri S.p.A generated revenue of €8.9B at a net margin of 1.4%. Revenue declined 7.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.8%. Net debt stands at €1.7B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €4.91 (bear case) to €9.01 (bull case); at €12.75, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -59% fair-value upside, at -43%, FCT screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF €3.94 €7.56 €12.97 80
Residual Income €2.56 €3.04 €6.59 76
Rev-Margin DCF €5.60 €11.16 €17.76 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €3.90 €7.62 €13.28 38
Owner Earnings €0.4500 31
5Y Revenue Exit €5.60 €11.25 €18.64 39
5Y EBITDA Exit €10.44 €20.56 €32.71 41
5Y P/E Exit €2.93 €6.12 €9.52 38
10Y Revenue Exit €4.62 €9.60 €16.62 36
10Y EBITDA Exit €7.96 €16.01 €27.38 37
10Y P/E Exit €3.22 €6.07 €9.64 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €2.34 €8.24 €11.09 54
Lynch FV €1.93 €2.75 €3.58 50
PEG = 1.0 €1.93 €2.75 €3.58 46
EPV €5.96 €7.28 €8.43 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €0.4100 €0.8200 €1.25 70
DDM Multi-Stage €0.4100 €0.7100 €0.8700 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple €5.41 €7.21 €9.01 63
P/S Multiple €4.38 €5.84 €7.30 58
P/B Multiple €4.38 €5.84 €7.30 55
EV/EBIT €10.65 €15.02 €19.38 53
EV/EBITDA €15.93 €22.05 €28.18 54
EV/Revenue €6.90 €10.91 €14.91 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €1.39 €1.87 €2.78 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €3.94 €7.56 €12.97 80
Rev-Margin DCF €5.60 €11.16 €17.76 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income €2.56 €3.04 €6.59 76
ROIC Compounder €6.65 €9.22 €12.39 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €3.73 €5.33 €6.93 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (€9.60) versus Dividend Discount (€0.7100). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €8.9B
Revenue growth (YoY) -7.8%
Net margin 1.4%
Return on equity 12.8%
Free cash flow €204M FY2025
P/E ratio 31.5
More key figures
Operating margin 3.9%
EPS (TTM) €0.3600
EPS growth (YoY) +20.0%
Net debt €1.7B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30

Profitability 39
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 66
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 39
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 6
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 54
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 53
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 26
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 11
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 88
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Fincantieri S.p.A. operates in the shipbuilding industry worldwide. It operates through four segments: Shipbuilding; Offshore and Specialized Vessels; Underwater; and Equipment, Systems, and Infrastructure.

Full company description

Fincantieri S.p.A. operates in the shipbuilding industry worldwide. It operates through four segments: Shipbuilding; Offshore and Specialized Vessels; Underwater; and Equipment, Systems, and Infrastructure. The company designs and constructs cruise ships, submarines, offshore support vessels, specialized vessels, and offshore wind plant vessels, as well as semi-submersible drilling ships and platforms products; cable-laying vessels and ferries; unmanned vessels; expedition cruise vessels; and aircraft carriers, destroyers, frigates, corvettes, patrol vessels, amphibious and logistic support ships, multirole and research vessels, and special vessels. It also provides product lifecycle management, and training and assistance services; cabins, wet units, public areas, catering, glazing, and interior design solutions; and ship repairs, refitting, conversions, and refurbishment services, as well as products that reduce environmental impact. In addition, the company offers technologies in the field of effectors, acoustic sensors, unmanned, radar, advanced communication systems, and top-side systems of autonomous vessels. Further, it provides electrical, and electronic and electromechanical integrated systems; stabilization, propulsion, positioning, and power generation systems; and steam turbines, as well as designs and integrates systems on automation, cyber security, telecommunications, and critical infrastructures and designs, constructs, and assembles bridges, viaducts, airports, ports, maritime/hydraulic works, large commercial and industrial buildings, and facility management. Additionally, the company provides dry-dock management; engineering, project, and supply chain management; IT consultancy; mechanical products sale and after-sale; marine diesel engine maintenance; technological research and development; ship accommodation services; and charters boats, ships, and barges. Fincantieri S.p.A. was founded in 1959 and is headquartered in Trieste, Italy.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Fincantieri S.p.A reported revenue of €9.2B in FY2025 versus €6.8B in FY2021, a compound +7.8%/yr. Reported net income was €123M in FY2025, compounding +54.2%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 80/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€9.2B
Latest YoY
+13.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.8%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.7%
Avg. growth/yr (22Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.4%
Revenue +7.8%/yr
FY21 €6.8B
FY22 €7.3B
FY23 €7.7B
FY24 €8.1B
FY25 €9.2B
Net income +54.2%/yr
FY21 €21.8M
FY22 −€324M
FY23 −€53.0M
FY24 €32.8M
FY25 €123M

FCT screens 43% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Fincantieri S.p.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FCT

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Aerospace & Defense · 226 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 47 · Below median
Fair Value upside −44% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 13% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 4% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -8% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 1.39× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 31.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B 4.71× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.53× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 23.1× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 9.8× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 0.32× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 0 · sector 46
PAST 51 · sector 38
HEALTH 30 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 15

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Weapons Defense

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).

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HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co 329180 466,000 KRW 272,966 KRW -41%
Hanwha Aerospace Co 012450 967,000 KRW 573,468 KRW -41%
ASELSAN Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi ASELS 337.50 TRY 130.70 TRY -61%
Saab AB SAABB kr 520.40 kr 212.84 -59%
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Frequently asked questions

Is Fincantieri S.p.A (FCT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €7.21 versus a price of €12.75, about −43% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FCT?
Our model-based fair value for Fincantieri S.p.A is €7.21 (as of Jul 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €12.75.
What is the quality score of FCT?
Fincantieri S.p.A has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Fincantieri S.p.A (FCT)?
Fincantieri S.p.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €8.9B (latest available figure, as of Jul 17, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of FCT?
The net profit margin of Fincantieri S.p.A is about 1.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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