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Fincantieri SpA (FCT) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Fincantieri SpA €8.72, price €12.44, upside -29.9%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · IT · ISIN IT0005599938

FS Fincantieri SpA logo Some data Sep 23, 2026

Fincantieri SpA

FCT · MI

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value €8.72 · Overvalued (−30%)
!Quality 47/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +9.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (6/14)
!Narrow moat 37/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

€26.92 €3.55 Fair Value €8.72 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €3.55 – €26.92 · fair‑value band €5.39 – €12.71 · the €12.44 price screens above the €8.72 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Fincantieri S.p.A. operates in the shipbuilding industry worldwide. It operates through four segments: Shipbuilding; Offshore and Specialized Vessels; Underwater; and Equipment, Systems, and Infrastructure.

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Fincantieri S.p.A. operates in the shipbuilding industry worldwide. It operates through four segments: Shipbuilding; Offshore and Specialized Vessels; Underwater; and Equipment, Systems, and Infrastructure. The company designs and constructs cruise ships, submarines, offshore support vessels, specialized vessels, and offshore wind plant vessels, as well as semi-submersible drilling ships and platforms products; cable-laying vessels and ferries; unmanned vessels; expedition cruise vessels; and aircraft carriers, destroyers, frigates, corvettes, patrol vessels, amphibious and logistic support ships, multirole and research vessels, and special vessels. It also provides product lifecycle management, and training and assistance services; cabins, wet units, public areas, catering, glazing, and interior design solutions; and ship repairs, refitting, conversions, and refurbishment services, as well as products that reduce environmental impact. In addition, the company offers technologies in the field of effectors, acoustic sensors, unmanned, radar, advanced communication systems, and top-side systems of autonomous vessels. Further, it provides electrical, and electronic and electromechanical integrated systems; stabilization, propulsion, positioning, and power generation systems; and steam turbines, as well as designs and integrates systems on automation, cyber security, telecommunications, and critical infrastructures and designs, constructs, and assembles bridges, viaducts, airports, ports, maritime/hydraulic works, large commercial and industrial buildings, and facility management. Additionally, the company provides dry-dock management; engineering, project, and supply chain management; IT consultancy; mechanical products sale and after-sale; marine diesel engine maintenance; technological research and development; ship accommodation services; and charters boats, ships, and barges. Fincantieri S.p.A. was founded in 1959 and is headquartered in Trieste, Italy.

Stock analysis

Fincantieri SpA (FCT) currently trades at €12.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €8.72, implying the stock looks roughly 42.6% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €13.21 per share, and 9 of the 24 models we run sit above the €12.44 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €1.86, and 15 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: €5.39 (bear) to €12.71 (bull), the price of €12.44 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Fincantieri SpA reported revenue of €9.2B in FY2025 versus €6.8B in FY2021, a compound +7.8%/yr. Reported net income was €123M in FY2025, compounding +54.2%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap €4.6B · P/E ratio 23.5 · P/S ratio 0.31 · EPS (TTM) €0.5300 · Net margin 1.3% · Return on equity 14.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.5% · Operating margin 4.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −30%, FCT screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €5.39 Fair Value €8.72 Bull €12.71
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.3877 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF €8.82 €15.43 €25.48 78
Growth DCF €8.91 €15.32 €24.93 76
EPV €5.94 €7.26 €8.40 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €8.82 €15.43 €25.48 78
Owner Earnings €3.66 €7.24 €12.68 73
5Y Revenue Exit €7.33 €13.21 €20.77 71
5Y EBITDA Exit €12.16 €22.49 €34.80 73
5Y P/E Exit €4.67 €8.09 €11.68 70
10Y Revenue Exit €7.49 €12.98 €20.53 65
10Y EBITDA Exit €10.81 €19.37 €31.26 66
10Y P/E Exit €6.09 €9.45 €13.57 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €2.33 €8.22 €11.06 64
Lynch FV €1.92 €2.75 €3.57 61
PEG = 1.0 €1.92 €2.75 €3.57 57
EPV €5.94 €7.26 €8.40 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple €5.39 €7.19 €8.99 63
P/S Multiple €4.37 €5.82 €7.28 58
P/B Multiple €4.37 €5.82 €7.28 55
EV/EBIT €10.62 €14.97 €19.33 65
EV/EBITDA €15.88 €21.99 €28.10 67
EV/Revenue €6.88 €10.88 €14.87 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €1.39 €1.86 €2.78 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €8.91 €15.32 €24.93 76
Rev-Margin DCF €7.33 €13.21 €20.21 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income €2.55 €3.01 €5.97 67
ROIC Compounder €6.63 €9.20 €12.35 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €3.72 €5.32 €6.91 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35

Profitability 39
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 66
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 39
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 6
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 54
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 56
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 38
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 8
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 88
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 80/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.3% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+97.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+97.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.97% vs 31%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−2% → 4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+19.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.9% a year for the price.

FCT screens 43% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (48 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 228 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 47 · Below median
Fair Value upside −30% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 15% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.39× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 23.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B 5.22× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 0.59× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 25.5× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 10.0× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 0.36× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)60 · sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)30 · sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 17

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Weapons Defense

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10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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General Electric Company GE $319.22 $92.68 −71%
RTX Corporation RTX $190.99 $88.37 −54%
Airbus SE AIR €194.60 €112.75 −42%
Safran SA SAF €332.00 €365.20 +10%
Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT $522.34 $440.05 −16%
Howmet Aerospace Inc HWM $225.36 $52.47 −77%
General Dynamics Corporation GD $343.39 $274.32 −20%
Northrop Grumman Corporation NOC $509.86 $383.06 −25%
TransDigm Group TDG $1,112 $1,224 +10%
L3Harris Technologies, Inc LHX $239.89 $263.88 +10%

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€8.72 −43%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Fincantieri SpA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FCT

Frequently asked questions

Is Fincantieri SpA (FCT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €8.72 versus a price of €12.44, about −30% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FCT?
Our model-based fair value for Fincantieri SpA is €8.72 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €12.44.
What is the quality score of FCT?
Fincantieri SpA has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Fincantieri SpA (FCT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €8.72 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €5.39, optimistic scenario €12.71. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Fincantieri SpA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €8.72, about −30% upside versus a price of €12.44 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €5.39, optimistic scenario €12.71. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Fincantieri SpA (FCT)?
Fincantieri SpA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €8.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Fincantieri SpA (FCT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Fincantieri SpA would have to grow free cash flow by +19.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.7 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FCT use?
Our models discount Fincantieri SpA at 11.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.80, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Fincantieri SpA that is +19.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Fincantieri SpA (FCT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Fincantieri SpA grew +9.7 % a year. The price currently implies +19.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Fincantieri SpA (FCT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Fincantieri SpA (+19.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Fincantieri SpA (FCT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.05 %: that much free cash flow Fincantieri SpA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Fincantieri SpA (FCT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Fincantieri SpA it is €8.72 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €12.44. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Fincantieri SpA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, FCT trades above its calculated fair value: price €12.44, fair value €8.72, a gap of about −30% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FCT?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€12.44); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€8.72). For Fincantieri SpA the two are €3.72 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Fincantieri SpA worth?
The market values Fincantieri SpA at about €4.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €12.44; our models calculate a fair value of €8.72 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FCT?
Our models span a range for Fincantieri SpA: cautious scenario €5.39, base €8.72, optimistic €12.71 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €12.44). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FCT?
Fincantieri SpA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.5 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €8.72 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.4, P/B 5.2, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 10.0.
What is the PEG ratio of FCT?
The PEG ratio of Fincantieri SpA is 0.36 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Fincantieri SpA (FCT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Fincantieri SpA (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 14.9%, debt of 1.39 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FCT from its 52-week high?
Fincantieri SpA trades at €12.44, about 54% below its 52-week high of €26.92 and 27% above the low of €9.81 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €8.72 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Fincantieri SpA?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Safran SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Fincantieri SpA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €12.44, calculated fair value €8.72 (−30%), Quality Score 47/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FCT calculated?
We run Fincantieri SpA through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €8.72, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Fincantieri SpA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Fincantieri SpA (FCT)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was €12.44. Our model-based fair value is €8.72, about −30% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Fincantieri SpA right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€5.39 to €12.71) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Fincantieri SpA

How large is the market capitalisation of Fincantieri SpA (FCT)?
The market capitalisation of Fincantieri SpA is €4.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Fincantieri SpA (FCT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Fincantieri SpA is 0.31 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Fincantieri SpA (FCT)?
Earnings per share at Fincantieri SpA are €0.5300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Fincantieri SpA (FCT)?
The net margin of Fincantieri SpA is 1.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Fincantieri SpA (FCT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Fincantieri SpA is 14.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Fincantieri SpA (FCT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Fincantieri SpA is 1.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Fincantieri SpA (FCT)?
The operating margin of Fincantieri SpA is 4.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Fincantieri SpA (FCT)?
Revenue at Fincantieri SpA is growing −2.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Fincantieri SpA (FCT)?
Earnings per share at Fincantieri SpA are growing +155% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Fincantieri SpA (FCT) carry?
The net debt of Fincantieri SpA is €1.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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