Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc stock $34.75, price $46.32, that is 25.0% below the price, quality 57 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 21 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $23.81 – $51.48 · fair‑value band $20.27 – $76.74 · the $46.32 price screens above the $34.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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GFL Environmental Inc. provides non-hazardous solid waste management services in Canada and the United States. It offers solid waste management services, including collection, transportation, transfer, recycling, and disposal services for municipal, residential, commercial, and industrial customers.
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The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Miami Beach, Florida.
Stock analysis
Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL) currently trades at $46.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $34.75, 25% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $163.89 per share, and 9 of the 20 models we run sit above the $46.32 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $8.68, and 11 of the 20 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $20.27 (bear) to $76.74 (bull), the price of $46.32 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc reported revenue of C$6.6B in FY2025 versus C$5.1B in FY2021, a compound +6.5%/yr. Reported net income was C$3.8B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $16.7B Large · P/S ratio 2.19 · EPS (TTM) $−0.7100 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin −4.3% · Return on equity −3.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.8% (5-year average) · Operating margin 9.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −9% fair-value upside, at −25%, GFL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$20.27Fair Value $34.75Bull$76.74
Price $46.32 · Downside -25.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.60/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.3%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−7.6% (2020) → 6.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: rate outside our plausibility band
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+47.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+18.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CAD, Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +44.7% a year for the price and +16.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (83 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Moderate moat from local scale in waste routes and landfills is offset by high leverage and weak cash conversion signals.
Main risk: Stricter federal or state PFAS regulations could increase compliance, remediation and disposal costs for GFL's landfills and material recovery facilities.
Bull case: GFL could use its EPR investments and recycling infrastructure to meet tighter PFAS standards more efficiently than smaller operators and secure additional contracted volumes.
Bear case: Rising PFAS-related costs and potential liability could erode margins on landfill operations and force GFL to limit or exit certain disposal activities.
GFL is channeling substantial capital into extended producer responsibility programs and advanced recycling infrastructure to capture higher-margin volumes amid tightening regulations. These moves build on its established collection network and tuck-in acquisition strategy, yet our models see the stock as overvalued. Will the returns from these sustainability investments exceed the costs of scaling and integrating recent deals?
Compare Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Waste Management · 155 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−25.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets19.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)−4.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)9.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)27.2% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.02× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Waste Management median · lower = cheaper
P/B3.24× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $34.75 versus a price of $46.32, about 25% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GFL?
Our model-based fair value for Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc is $34.75 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $46.32.
What is the quality score of GFL?
Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $34.75 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario $20.27, optimistic scenario $76.74. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $34.75, about 25% lower versus a price of $46.32 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $20.27, optimistic scenario $76.74. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL)?
Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$7.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.14% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc pays a dividend of $0.063 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.1%. The last ex-dividend date was Oct 14, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2020. The payout ratio is 0.8% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 5.62 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +47.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.5 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GFL use?
Our models discount Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.51, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc that is +47.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc grew +9.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +47.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (+47.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.74 %: that much free cash flow Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc it is $34.75 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $46.32. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, GFL trades above its calculated fair value: price $46.32, fair value $34.75, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GFL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($46.32); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($34.75). For Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc the two are $11.57 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc at about $16.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $46.32; our models calculate a fair value of $34.75 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GFL?
Our models span a range for Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $20.27, base $34.75, optimistic $76.74 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $46.32). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity −3.0%, debt of 1.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GFL from its 52-week high?
Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc trades at $46.32, at its 52-week high of $46.45 and 38% above the low of $33.54 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $34.75 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Waste Management, Inc, Republic Services, Inc, Waste Connections, Inc, Veolia Environnement SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $46.32, calculated fair value $34.75 (−25%), Quality Score 57/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GFL calculated?
We run Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc through 21 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $34.75 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $46.32. Our model-based fair value is $34.75, about 25% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($20.27 to $76.74). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL)?
The market capitalisation of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc is $16.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc is 2.19 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL)?
Earnings per share at Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc are $−0.7100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL)?
The dividend yield of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc is 0.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL)?
The net margin of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc is −4.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc is −3.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc is 0.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL)?
The operating margin of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc is 9.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL)?
Revenue at Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc is growing +27.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL)?
Earnings per share at Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc are growing +22.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL) carry?
The net debt of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc is C$7.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 44.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 6, 2026