Goodman Group (GMG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Goodman Group stock A$16.58, price A$27.84, that is 40.4% below the price, quality 67 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 15 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$15.12 – A$38.10 · fair‑value band A$10.97 – A$26.94 · the A$27.84 price screens above the A$16.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Goodman Group is a provider of essential infrastructure. It owns, develops and manages high quality, sustainable logistics properties and data centres in major global cities, that are critical to the digital economy.
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Goodman has operations in key consumer markets across Australia, New Zealand, Asia, Europe, the United Kingdom, and the Americas.
Goodman Group, comprised of the stapled entities Goodman Limited, Goodman Industrial Trust and Goodman Logistics (HK) Limited, is the largest property group on the Australian Securities Exchange, a top 20 entity by market capitalisation, and one of the largest listed specialist investment managers of industrial property globally The Group's property portfolio includes logistics and distribution centres, data centres, warehouses, light industrial, multi-storey industrial, and business parks.
Goodman takes a long-term view, investing significantly alongside its capital Partners in its investment management platform and concentrating the portfolio where it can create the most value for customers and investors. Goodman Group was established on April 05, 2002 and incorporated in Australia.
Stock analysis
Goodman Group (GMG) currently trades at A$27.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$16.58, 40% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of A$25.02 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the A$27.84 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at A$4.77, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$10.97 (bear) to A$26.94 (bull), the price of A$27.84 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Goodman Group reported revenue of A$2.7B in FY2026 versus A$2.1B in FY2022, a compound +6.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$2.8B in FY2026, compounding −5.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$58.2B (≈ $40.1B) Large · P/E ratio 20.8 · P/S ratio 14.3 · EPS (TTM) A$1.34 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 68.4% · Return on equity 11.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 71 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 4% fair-value upside, at −40%, GMG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$10.97Fair Value A$16.58BullA$26.94
Price A$27.84 · Downside -40.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.3676 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.79/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
−1.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1.7% vs 7.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.26% → 51%
2026 sits 60% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+15.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +13.0% a year for the price and +12.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (55 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The business draws strength from scale in its international data centre pipeline yet is limited by low innovation signals and elevated leverage in a rate-sensitive sector.
Main risk: Tightening planning rules, power constraints and community opposition in key markets could delay or block new data centre projects, limiting pipeline execution and future leasing capacity.
Bull case: By expanding its secured global power bank and forming more partnerships in less constrained markets, Goodman could accelerate international leasing and offset any local approval delays.
Bear case: If regulatory barriers intensify across multiple jurisdictions and hyperscaler spending contracts, large parts of the development pipeline could stall, curtailing earnings growth from new assets.
Goodman has concentrated its development pipeline on data centres, most of which sit outside Australia. The late-September withdrawal of its large Lane Cove project after regulatory shifts and community pushback highlights how approvals can still stall at home. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Does the international leasing momentum outweigh these local execution risks, or will they constrain the overall growth path?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Diversified · 139 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−40.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)11.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets8.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)68.4% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)61.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)65.8% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.24× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Goodman Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GMG
Frequently asked questions
Is Goodman Group (GMG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$16.58 versus a price of A$27.84, about 40% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GMG?
Our model-based fair value for Goodman Group is A$16.58 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$27.84.
What is the quality score of GMG?
Goodman Group has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Goodman Group (GMG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$16.58 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$10.97, optimistic scenario A$26.94. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Goodman Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$16.58, about 40% lower versus a price of A$27.84 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$10.97, optimistic scenario A$26.94. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Goodman Group (GMG)?
Goodman Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$4.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Goodman Group pay a dividend?
Goodman Group currently shows a dividend yield of 1.08% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Goodman Group (GMG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Goodman Group would have to grow free cash flow by +16.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.3 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GMG use?
Our models discount Goodman Group at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.01, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Goodman Group that is +16.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Goodman Group (GMG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Goodman Group grew +7.3 % a year. The price currently implies +16.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Goodman Group (GMG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Goodman Group (+16.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Goodman Group (GMG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.23 %: that much free cash flow Goodman Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Goodman Group (GMG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Goodman Group it is A$16.58 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of A$27.84. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Goodman Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, GMG trades above its calculated fair value: price A$27.84, fair value A$16.58, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GMG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$27.84); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$16.58). For Goodman Group the two are A$11.26 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Goodman Group worth?
The market values Goodman Group at about A$58.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is A$27.84; our models calculate a fair value of A$16.58 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GMG?
Our models span a range for Goodman Group: cautious scenario A$10.97, base A$16.58, optimistic A$26.94 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price A$27.84). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GMG?
Goodman Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.8 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$16.58 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 18.6. Other multiples: PEG 2.7, P/B 2.3, P/S 14.3, EV/EBITDA 25.1.
What is the PEG ratio of GMG?
The PEG ratio of Goodman Group is 2.72 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Goodman Group (GMG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Goodman Group (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 11.5%, debt of 0.24 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GMG from its 52-week high?
Goodman Group trades at A$27.84, about 14% below its 52-week high of A$32.55 and 12% above the low of A$24.90 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$16.58 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Goodman Group?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value VICI Properties Inc, W. P. Carey Inc, Charter Hall Group, The GPT Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Goodman Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price A$27.84, calculated fair value A$16.58 (−40%), Quality Score 67/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GMG calculated?
We run Goodman Group through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$16.58, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Goodman Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Goodman Group (GMG)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was A$27.84. Our model-based fair value is A$16.58, about 40% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Goodman Group right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$26.94). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (A$10.97 to A$26.94) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Goodman Group (GMG) come from?
Earnings per share at Goodman Group grew +6.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.7 %, EBIT margin +1.2 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +4.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Goodman Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Goodman Group (GMG)?
The market capitalisation of Goodman Group is A$58.2B (≈ $40.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Goodman Group (GMG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Goodman Group is 14.3 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Goodman Group (GMG)?
Earnings per share at Goodman Group are A$1.34 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Goodman Group (GMG)?
The dividend yield of Goodman Group is 1.1% (payout 22.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Goodman Group (GMG)?
The net margin of Goodman Group is 68.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Goodman Group (GMG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Goodman Group is 11.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Goodman Group (GMG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Goodman Group is 2.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Goodman Group (GMG)?
The operating margin of Goodman Group is 61.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Goodman Group (GMG)?
Revenue at Goodman Group is growing +65.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Goodman Group (GMG)?
Earnings per share at Goodman Group are growing +115% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Goodman Group (GMG) carry?
The net debt of Goodman Group is A$2.0B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 1.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026