Gates Industrial Corporation plc (GTES) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Gates Industrial Corporation plc stock $18.52, price $24.10, that is 23.2% below the price, quality 67 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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IndustrialsUS · Home United Kingdom · ISIN BMG391041073
GISome dataNov 9, 2026
Gates Industrial Corporation plc
GTES · US
Solid,but expensive
Our calculation puts a fair price 23% below what the stock costs today.
Quality 67/100
Healthy Growth(revenue 5y +4.3 %/yr in USD)
Solidly profitable · 10.4% net margin (TTM)
Generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers(10/13)
Upbeat coverage
Moderate debt
Moderate moat51/100 · thin data
Insiders sold $497,880 (6M)
Some data
Fair value $18.52 · Overvalued
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩EV shift could erode demand for ICE belts🚩Stricter rules on rubber chemicals could raise costs🚩Low-cost rivals from emerging markets could undercut prices
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.70 – $29.84 · fair‑value band $11.73 – $26.28 · the $24.10 price screens above the $18.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Gates Industrial Corporation plc manufactures and sells engineered power transmission and fluid power solutions in the United States, rest of North America, South America, the United Kingdom, Luxembourg, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, India, East Asia, and Greater China.
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It operates through two segments, Power Transmission and Fluid Power.
The company offers solutions for stationary and mobile drives, engine systems, and personal mobility application platforms; elastomer drive belts; asynchronous and synchronous belts, including V-belts, continuously-variable transmission belts, and Micro-V belts; metal drive components, such as tensioners, idlers, pulleys, sprockets, mechanical water pumps, and other accessories used in belt drive systems; and kits for the automotive replacement channel.
It also provides fluid power solutions for stationary and mobile hydraulics, vehicle systems, and other industrial application platforms; hydraulics comprising hoses, tubing, couplings, and fittings, as well as assemblies; thermal and emissions management and related products; and industrial hoses, including data center pumps.
The company's products are used in applications across various markets, including diversified industrial applications comprising automated manufacturing, logistics systems, and data centers; everyday consumer applications consisting of printers, power washers, automatic doors, and vacuum cleaners; industrial off-highway, such as construction and agriculture; industrial on-highway commercial vehicles including heavy-duty trucks and buses; energy and resources markets, such as oil, gas, and mining; and personal mobility, including scooters, motorcycles, bicycles, all-terrain vehicles, and snowmobiles.
It sells its products under the Gates brand. The company offers its products to aftermarket channel customers and original equipment manufacturers. Gates Industrial Corporation plc was founded in 1911 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.
Stock analysis
Gates Industrial Corporation plc (GTES) currently trades at $24.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.52, 23% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $19.47 per share, and 3 of the 22 models we run sit above the $24.10 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $11.56, and 19 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $11.73 (bear) to $26.28 (bull), the price of $24.10 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Gates Industrial Corporation plc reported revenue of $3.4B in FY2025 versus $3.5B in FY2021, a compound −0.2%/yr. Reported net income was $251M in FY2025, compounding −4.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $6.2B Mid · P/E ratio 16.7 · P/S ratio 1.74 · EPS (TTM) $1.44 · Net margin 10.4% · Return on equity 10.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin 15.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −23%, GTES screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$11.73Fair Value $18.52Bull$26.28
Price $24.10 · Downside -23.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.23 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $497,880 and none bought.
SalePeifang ZhangDirector2× since Aug 4, 2026: 17,000 shares, avg. $29.29$497,880Aug 6, 2026
SaleGwendolyn Ann MontgomeryChief Human Resources Officer2× since Nov 17, 2025: 43,334 shares, avg. $22.55$977,104Nov 26, 2025
SaleLawrence B MallardChief Financial Officer22,188 shares at $22.77$505,221Nov 12, 2025
Plus one other filing such as a grant, option exercise or tax withholding. It is not a market purchase or sale.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.72/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.2% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+8.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: −0.7% / 27.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 15%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.6% a year for the price and +2.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Modest margins and cash flow give limited signals of advantage while the Timken acquisition expands power transmission capacity, yet elevated debt relative to equity remains the main weakness.
Main risk: The ongoing shift from internal combustion engines to electric vehicles could reduce the need for traditional timing belts and accessory drive belts in automotive OEM and aftermarket applications.
Bull case: Gates could expand its offerings in electric vehicle thermal management, data center liquid cooling and chain-to-belt conversions to offset any decline in traditional ICE products.
Bear case: If electrification accelerates faster than expected and alternative motion technologies gain traction while regulations tighten, demand for core belt and hose products could shrink substantially over time.
Gates has completed the acquisition of Timken's belts business, adding North American manufacturing capacity and customers across industrial OEM, aftermarket and mobility segments. This expands its power transmission footprint while the company continues to navigate uneven industrial demand. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will successful integration of the new assets and team outweigh any added costs or operational friction?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 813 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−23.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.3% · Above median
Return on assets3.5% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)10.4% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)15.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)5.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.66× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)16.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.85× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)1.74× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)15.3× · Cheaper than median
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Is Gates Industrial Corporation plc (GTES) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $18.52 versus a price of $24.10, about 23% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GTES?
Our model-based fair value for Gates Industrial Corporation plc is $18.52 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $24.10.
What is the quality score of GTES?
Gates Industrial Corporation plc has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gates Industrial Corporation plc (GTES)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $18.52 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.73, optimistic scenario $26.28. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gates Industrial Corporation plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $18.52, about 23% lower versus a price of $24.10 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $11.73, optimistic scenario $26.28. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gates Industrial Corporation plc (GTES)?
Gates Industrial Corporation plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
What growth is priced into Gates Industrial Corporation plc (GTES)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Gates Industrial Corporation plc would have to grow free cash flow by +10.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.3 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GTES use?
Our models discount Gates Industrial Corporation plc at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.29, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Gates Industrial Corporation plc that is +10.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Gates Industrial Corporation plc (GTES) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Gates Industrial Corporation plc grew +4.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +10.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Gates Industrial Corporation plc (GTES) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Gates Industrial Corporation plc (+10.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Gates Industrial Corporation plc (GTES)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.56 %: that much free cash flow Gates Industrial Corporation plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Gates Industrial Corporation plc (GTES)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gates Industrial Corporation plc it is $18.52 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of $24.10. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Gates Industrial Corporation plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, GTES trades above its calculated fair value: price $24.10, fair value $18.52, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GTES?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($24.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($18.52). For Gates Industrial Corporation plc the two are $5.58 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gates Industrial Corporation plc worth?
The market values Gates Industrial Corporation plc at about $6.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is $24.10; our models calculate a fair value of $18.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GTES?
Our models span a range for Gates Industrial Corporation plc: cautious scenario $11.73, base $18.52, optimistic $26.28 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price $24.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GTES?
Gates Industrial Corporation plc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.7 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $18.52 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 20.8 (reported for FY2025: 25.1). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2018 to 2025), reported earnings, 7 of the years ex one-offs: 13.4. Other multiples: P/B 1.9, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 10.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gates Industrial Corporation plc (GTES)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gates Industrial Corporation plc (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 10.3%, debt of 0.66 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GTES from its 52-week high?
Gates Industrial Corporation plc trades at $24.10, about 19% below its 52-week high of $29.84 and 15% above the low of $21.04 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $18.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gates Industrial Corporation plc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value SIE, GE Vernova Inc, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gates Industrial Corporation plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price $24.10, calculated fair value $18.52 (−23%), Quality Score 67/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GTES calculated?
We run Gates Industrial Corporation plc through 22 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $18.52 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Gates Industrial Corporation plc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gates Industrial Corporation plc (GTES)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $24.10. Our model-based fair value is $18.52, about 23% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gates Industrial Corporation plc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($11.73 to $26.28) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Gates Industrial Corporation plc
How large is the market capitalisation of Gates Industrial Corporation plc (GTES)?
The market capitalisation of Gates Industrial Corporation plc is $6.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Gates Industrial Corporation plc (GTES)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gates Industrial Corporation plc is 1.74 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gates Industrial Corporation plc (GTES)?
Earnings per share at Gates Industrial Corporation plc are $1.44 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Gates Industrial Corporation plc (GTES)?
The net margin of Gates Industrial Corporation plc is 10.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gates Industrial Corporation plc (GTES)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gates Industrial Corporation plc is 10.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gates Industrial Corporation plc (GTES)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gates Industrial Corporation plc is 6.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gates Industrial Corporation plc (GTES)?
The operating margin of Gates Industrial Corporation plc is 15.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gates Industrial Corporation plc (GTES)?
Revenue at Gates Industrial Corporation plc is growing +5.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Gates Industrial Corporation plc (GTES)?
Earnings per share at Gates Industrial Corporation plc are growing +9.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Gates Industrial Corporation plc (GTES) carry?
The net debt of Gates Industrial Corporation plc is $1.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 9, 2026