Hankyu Hanshin Holdings (HKY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hankyu Hanshin Holdings stock €17.31, price €26.36, that is 34.3% below the price, quality 51 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 12 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €20.26 – €32.85 · fair‑value band €17.31 – €29.31 · the €26.36 price screens above the €17.31 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Hankyu Hanshin Holdings, Inc. operates in the urban transportation, real estate, entertainment, information and communication technology, travel, and international transportation businesses in Japan and internationally.
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The company offers various urban transportation services, such as railways, buses, and taxis; advertising services; and retailing services. It also involved in the development, lease, and administration of commercial facilities and office buildings; ownership and management of hotels.
In addition, the company engages in the operation of sports businesses, including HANSHIN Tigers, a professional baseball team; Takarazuka Revue, a theatrical company; Umeda Arts Theater; Billboard, a music brand; and Mt. Rokko, a view spot that provides a range of leisure facilities, including ski slopes, an alpine botanical garden, an observatory, and a museum, as well as the exhibition event platform Rokko Meets Art, which combines the nature and scenery of Mt. Rokko with modern art.
Further, the company involved in the provision of information and communications technology services, such as e-commerce and website production, systems development, solutions related to the medical field, and contract services in the development of software; information infrastructure, and optical and wireless high-speed internet services; and wireless IC tags for children, as well as operates ProgLab, a robot-programming classes for children.
Additionally, it provides the provision of travel services; and international transportation services, which include logistics solutions, airfreight transport, and maritime cargo transport services. Hankyu Hanshin Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 1907 and is headquartered in Kita, Japan.
Stock analysis
Hankyu Hanshin Holdings (HKY) currently trades at €26.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €17.31, 34% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €78.84 per share, and 3 of the 11 models we run sit above the €26.36 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €6.77, and 8 of the 11 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €17.31 (bear) to €29.31 (bull), the price of €26.36 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Hankyu Hanshin Holdings reported revenue of ¥1.2T in FY2026 versus ¥746B in FY2022, a compound +12.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥78.5B in FY2026, compounding +38.4%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap €6.3B Mid · P/E ratio 14.6 · P/S ratio 0.96 · EPS (TTM) €1.80 · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 6.5% · Return on equity 6.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.0% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 36 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at −34%, HKY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€17.31Fair Value €17.31Bull€29.31
Price €26.36 · Downside -34.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.7535 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.5% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+18.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.16.0% vs 1.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 11%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+25.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +22.7% a year for the price and +1.1% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: The conglomerate gains from its sharpened focus on domestic railways, real estate and retail around the Umeda redevelopment, yet high leverage with debt above equity and weak margins signal a limited moat.
Main risk: Declining birth rates and an aging population could reduce passenger numbers on its railways and demand for real estate and retail in Kansai line-side communities.
Bull case: By accelerating the Umeda redevelopment and expanding overseas real estate while using AI for operational efficiency, the company could attract more inbound visitors and offset lower domestic demand.
Bear case: If population decline accelerates further and environmental compliance costs rise sharply, its core railway ridership and line-side property values could fall, leading to persistently lower earnings from domestic urban assets.
Hankyu Hanshin is exiting its international freight forwarding unit to concentrate resources on railways, real estate and retail tied to the major Umeda redevelopment in Osaka. The move unlocks a sizable one-time gain yet narrows exposure to a small but diversified earnings stream. Will the intensified focus on domestic urban assets deliver stronger returns than the broader conglomerate structure did?
Compare Hankyu Hanshin Holdings with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 304 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Below median
Fair Value upside−34.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.9% · Below median
Return on assets2.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)6.2% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)10.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)4.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.07× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)14.6× · Pricier than median
P/B1.00× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)0.89× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)21.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA11.4× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 52
FUTURE (revenue growth)23· sector 38
PAST (return on equity)27· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)46· sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)43· sector 46
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Hankyu Hanshin Holdings (HKY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €17.31 versus a price of €26.36, about 34% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HKY?
Our model-based fair value for Hankyu Hanshin Holdings is €17.31 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €26.36.
What is the quality score of HKY?
Hankyu Hanshin Holdings has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hankyu Hanshin Holdings (HKY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €17.31 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario €17.31, optimistic scenario €29.31. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hankyu Hanshin Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €17.31, about 34% lower versus a price of €26.36 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €17.31, optimistic scenario €29.31. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hankyu Hanshin Holdings (HKY)?
Hankyu Hanshin Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥1.2T (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Hankyu Hanshin Holdings pay a dividend?
Hankyu Hanshin Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of 2.15% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Hankyu Hanshin Holdings (HKY) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Hankyu Hanshin Holdings pays a dividend of €0.567 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.2%. The next ex-dividend date is Mar 30, 2027. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2011. The payout ratio is 29.4% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.24 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Hankyu Hanshin Holdings (HKY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hankyu Hanshin Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by +25.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.2 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HKY use?
Our models discount Hankyu Hanshin Holdings at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hankyu Hanshin Holdings that is +25.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hankyu Hanshin Holdings (HKY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hankyu Hanshin Holdings grew +16.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +25.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hankyu Hanshin Holdings (HKY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hankyu Hanshin Holdings (+25.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hankyu Hanshin Holdings (HKY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.69 %: that much free cash flow Hankyu Hanshin Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hankyu Hanshin Holdings (HKY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hankyu Hanshin Holdings it is €17.31 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of €26.36. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Hankyu Hanshin Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, HKY trades above its calculated fair value: price €26.36, fair value €17.31, a gap of about −34% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HKY?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€26.36); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€17.31). For Hankyu Hanshin Holdings the two are €9.05 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hankyu Hanshin Holdings worth?
The market values Hankyu Hanshin Holdings at about €6.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is €26.36; our models calculate a fair value of €17.31 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HKY?
Our models span a range for Hankyu Hanshin Holdings: cautious scenario €17.31, base €17.31, optimistic €29.31 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price €26.36). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HKY?
Hankyu Hanshin Holdings trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.6 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €17.31 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 11.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hankyu Hanshin Holdings (HKY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hankyu Hanshin Holdings (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 6.9%, debt of 1.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HKY from its 52-week high?
Hankyu Hanshin Holdings trades at €26.36, about 4% below its 52-week high of €27.40 and 31% above the low of €20.13 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €17.31 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hankyu Hanshin Holdings?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, Swire Pacific Limited, SGH Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hankyu Hanshin Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price €26.36, calculated fair value €17.31 (−34%), Quality Score 51/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HKY calculated?
We run Hankyu Hanshin Holdings through 12 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €17.31 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Hankyu Hanshin Holdings itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hankyu Hanshin Holdings (HKY)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €26.36. Our model-based fair value is €17.31, about 34% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hankyu Hanshin Holdings right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Hankyu Hanshin Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of Hankyu Hanshin Holdings (HKY)?
The market capitalisation of Hankyu Hanshin Holdings is €6.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hankyu Hanshin Holdings (HKY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hankyu Hanshin Holdings is 0.96 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hankyu Hanshin Holdings (HKY)?
Earnings per share at Hankyu Hanshin Holdings are €1.80 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hankyu Hanshin Holdings (HKY)?
The dividend yield of Hankyu Hanshin Holdings is 2.2% (payout 31.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hankyu Hanshin Holdings (HKY)?
The net margin of Hankyu Hanshin Holdings is 6.5% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hankyu Hanshin Holdings (HKY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hankyu Hanshin Holdings is 6.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hankyu Hanshin Holdings (HKY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hankyu Hanshin Holdings is 3.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hankyu Hanshin Holdings (HKY)?
The operating margin of Hankyu Hanshin Holdings is 10.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hankyu Hanshin Holdings (HKY)?
Revenue at Hankyu Hanshin Holdings is growing +4.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hankyu Hanshin Holdings (HKY)?
Earnings per share at Hankyu Hanshin Holdings are growing −17.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hankyu Hanshin Holdings (HKY) carry?
The net debt of Hankyu Hanshin Holdings is ¥1.3T (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 26.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026