Orix Corp (IX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Orix Corp stock $59.05, price $34.85, upside +69.4%, quality 67 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.86 – $40.61 · fair‑value band $27.16 – $85.08 · the $34.85 price screens below the $59.05 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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ORIX Corporation provides financial services in Japan, the United States, Asia, Europe, and Australasia.
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The company's Corporate Financial Services and Maintenance Leasing segment is involved in the finance and fee; and leasing and rental of automobiles, electronic measuring instruments, and ICT-related equipment businesses.
Its Real Estate segment develops, rents, and manages real estate properties; operates facilities; provides real estate asset management services. The company's PE Investment and Concession segment engages in the private equity investment and concession businesses.
Its Environment and Energy segment provides ESCO, and recycling and waste management services; retails electric power; sells solar panels; and generates renewable energy power.
The company's Insurance segment sells life insurance products through agents, banks, and other financial institutions, as well as face-to-face and online. Its Banking and Credit segment provides banking and consumer finance services.
The company's Aircraft and Ships segment engages in the aircraft investment and management, ship-related finance and investment, maritime asset management, and ship brokerage businesses. Its ORIX USA segment offers finance, investment, and asset management services.
The company's ORIX Europe segment provides asset management services for equity and fixed income. Its Asia and Australia segment engages in the finance and investment businesses. The company was formerly known as Orient Leasing Co., Ltd. and changed its name to ORIX Corporation in 1989.
ORIX Corporation was incorporated in 1950 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Orix Corp (IX) currently trades at $34.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $59.05, implying the stock looks roughly 41% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $90.10 per share, and 7 of the 13 models we run sit above the $34.85 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $15.03, and 6 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $27.16 (bear) to $85.08 (bull), the price of $34.85 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Orix Corp Ads reported revenue of ¥3.5T in FY2026 versus ¥2.5T in FY2022, a compound +8.9%/yr. Reported net income was ¥475B in FY2026, compounding +10.6%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $39.0B Large · P/E ratio 9.7 · P/S ratio 1.30 · EPS (TTM) $3.60 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 13.5% · Return on equity 14.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.5% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 62 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 43% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at 69%, IX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$27.16Fair Value $59.05Bull$85.08
Price $34.85 · Upside +69.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.60 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.88/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+22.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.1% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+15.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12.3% vs 7.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 22%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−9.1%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −10.9% a year for the price and +1.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (84 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Scale and cash metrics offer mild support for the financial conglomerate, yet insufficient data leaves no evidence of a dominant franchise or confirmed pricing power.
Main risk: Stricter climate regulations and the shift to decarbonisation could cause loss of asset value, stranded assets or higher compliance and conversion costs in ORIX's Environment and Energy and Real Estate businesses, particularly its coal-biomass plants.
Bull case: ORIX could use its operational expertise to shift toward third-party asset management and fee-based models in renewables and infrastructure, offsetting pressures while expanding in areas like data-center power.
Bear case: If competitive pressures intensify and climate rules accelerate asset impairments, ORIX could face sustained margin compression in core leasing and energy segments along with reduced returns from its asset portfolio.
ORIX has begun building its first grid-scale energy storage plants in Japan through a joint project financed mostly by external investors, keeping a 23.7 percent stake and handling operations. This marks a shift toward asset-light expansion in renewables while the company runs a large ongoing share repurchase program. Our models see it as undervalued, but will the efficiency gains from third-party capital in new projects outweigh the direct returns from buybacks, or the other way around?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Financial Conglomerates · 49 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+69.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)14.0% · Above median
Return on assets2.6% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)17.9% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)21.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)17.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.33× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Financial Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
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As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $59.05 versus a price of $34.85, about +69% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of IX?
Our model-based fair value for Orix Corp is $59.05 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $34.85.
What is the quality score of IX?
Orix Corp has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Orix Corp (IX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $59.05 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $27.16, optimistic scenario $85.08. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Orix Corp Ads stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $59.05, about +69% upside versus a price of $34.85 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $27.16, optimistic scenario $85.08. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Orix Corp (IX)?
Orix Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥3.5T (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Orix Corp Ads pay a dividend?
Orix Corp currently shows a dividend yield of 2.83% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Orix Corp (IX) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Orix Corp pays a dividend of $0.987 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.8%. The last ex-dividend date was Mar 31, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1999. The payout ratio is 35.4% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 8.21 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Orix Corp (IX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Orix Corp would have to grow free cash flow by -9.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.0 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of IX use?
Our models discount Orix Corp at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.74, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Orix Corp that is -9.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Orix Corp (IX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Orix Corp grew +9.0 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -9.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Orix Corp (IX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Orix Corp (-9.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Orix Corp (IX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 22.37 %: that much free cash flow Orix Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Orix Corp (IX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Orix Corp it is $59.05 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $34.85. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Orix Corp Ads stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, IX trades below its calculated fair value: price $34.85, fair value $59.05, a gap of about +69% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of IX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($34.85); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($59.05). For Orix Corp the two are $24.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Orix Corp Ads worth?
The market values Orix Corp at about $39.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $34.85; our models calculate a fair value of $59.05 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about IX?
Our models span a range for Orix Corp: cautious scenario $27.16, base $59.05, optimistic $85.08 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $34.85). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of IX?
Orix Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.7 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $59.05 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.7, P/B 1.4, P/S 1.8, EV/EBITDA 9.3.
What is the PEG ratio of IX?
The PEG ratio of Orix Corp is 2.72 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Orix Corp (IX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Orix Corp (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 14.0%, debt of 1.33 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is IX from its 52-week high?
Orix Corp trades at $34.85, about 14% below its 52-week high of $40.61 and 43% above the low of $24.29 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $59.05 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Orix Corp Ads?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Bajaj Finserv Ltd, Yuanta Financial Holding, China Galaxy Securities Co, Guosen Securities Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Orix Corp Ads stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $34.85, calculated fair value $59.05 (+69%), Quality Score 67/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of IX calculated?
We run Orix Corp through 13 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $59.05 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Orix Corp currently trades 41% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Orix Corp (IX)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $34.85. Our model-based fair value is $59.05, about +69% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Orix Corp Ads right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($27.16 to $85.08). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Orix Corp (IX) come from?
Earnings per share at Orix Corp grew +6.4 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.3 %, EBIT margin +3.1 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Orix Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Orix Corp (IX)?
The market capitalisation of Orix Corp is $39.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Orix Corp (IX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Orix Corp is 1.30 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Orix Corp (IX)?
Earnings per share at Orix Corp are $3.60 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Orix Corp (IX)?
The dividend yield of Orix Corp is 2.8% (payout 27.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Orix Corp (IX)?
The net margin of Orix Corp is 13.5% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Orix Corp (IX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Orix Corp is 14.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Orix Corp (IX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Orix Corp is 2.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Orix Corp (IX)?
The operating margin of Orix Corp is 21.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Orix Corp (IX)?
Revenue at Orix Corp is growing +17.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Orix Corp (IX)?
Earnings per share at Orix Corp are growing +171% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Orix Corp (IX) carry?
The net debt of Orix Corp is ¥5.1T (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 3.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026