Leonardo S.p.A. (LDO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Leonardo S.p.A. stock €33.43, price €49.36, that is 32.3% below the price, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €5.53 – €63.49 · fair‑value band €22.10 – €46.47 · the €49.36 price screens above the €33.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Leonardo S.p.a., an industrial and technological company, engages in the helicopters, defense electronics and security, cyber security and solutions, aircraft, aerostructures, and space sectors in Italy, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, the United States of America, and internationally.
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It offers a range of helicopters for battlefield/personnel recovery, combat, maritime, training, VIP/executive transport, medical and rescue, energy, security, and utility services, as well as provides support and training services.
The company also provides trainers, fighters, multi-mission transport, and multi-mission surveillance aircraft; command and controls, radars and sensors, optronics, communication systems, electronic warfare, avionics, defense system, and air traffic management; defense systems comprising turrets and canons, munitions, and torpedoes; and cyber security and resilience, critical communications, digitalization, and global monitoring solutions.
In addition, it offers geoinformation, satellite communications, ground systems, navigation, and satellite operations; interplanetary probes and orbiting modules; and robotics and drilling, electro-optics, laser transmitters, atomic clocks, photovoltaic panels, power distributors and amplifiers, attitude sensors, and orbital micro propulsion.
Further, the company engages in the production and assembly of major structural composite and metallic components for commercial and military aircraft, helicopters, and uncrewed aircraft.
Additionally, it designs and manufactures heavy-duty quarry and construction vehicles for the mining and construction industry. The company was formerly known as Leonardo " Finmeccanica S.p.a. and changed its name to Leonardo S.p.a. in January 2017.
Leonardo S.p.a. was founded in 1948 and is headquartered in Rome, Italy.
Stock analysis
Leonardo S.p.A. (LDO) currently trades at €49.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €33.43, 32% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €36.08 per share, and 1 of the 25 models we run sit above the €49.36 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €7.07, and 24 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €22.10 (bear) to €46.47 (bull), the price of €49.36 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Leonardo S.p.A. reported revenue of €19.5B in FY2025 versus €14.1B in FY2021, a compound +8.4%/yr. Reported net income was €1.2B in FY2025, compounding +20.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €28.5B Large · P/E ratio 24.7 · P/S ratio 1.38 · EPS (TTM) €2.00 · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin 5.5% · Return on equity 11.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 54 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −32%, LDO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€22.10Fair Value €33.43Bull€46.47
Price €49.36 · Downside -32.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€1.16 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.71/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.1% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+17.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.3%
Per share before 2008divided by the spin-off factor 1.1083
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.15.8% vs 9.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 8%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+23.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+10.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +20.9% a year for the price and +8.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Defense contract stickiness and technical capabilities provide a moderate moat, but state influence and average returns temper the overall business quality.
Main risk: Difficulties maintaining quality standards or meeting delivery times could arise if numerous small and medium-sized enterprise suppliers face financial or operational issues, hitting production schedules and margins on helicopters, electronics and platforms.
Bull case: By deepening partnerships and development programmes with its SME suppliers the company could secure more reliable supply chains and accelerate innovation in electronics and platforms.
Bear case: Persistent supplier disruptions or refinancing pressures could delay deliveries on key defence contracts and slow the rollout of new multi-domain systems.
Leonardo stands to gain from strong order momentum in naval programs and armored vehicles amid broader European rearmament. At the same time recent diplomacy around Ukraine and a measured Italian defense budget raise questions about how quickly spending will translate into new contracts. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued, so will execution on electronics and helicopters outweigh slower procurement cycles or confirm the caution?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 241 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−32.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)11.9% · Above median
Return on assets3.6% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)5.5% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)7.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)16.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.17× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)24.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B2.98× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)1.38× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow38.8× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA11.5× · Cheaper than median
PEG1.31× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)84· sector 64
PAST (return on equity)48· sector 40
HEALTH (low debt)92· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)26· sector 18
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Leonardo S.p.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LDO
Frequently asked questions
Is Leonardo S.p.A. (LDO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €33.43 versus a price of €49.36, about 32% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LDO?
Our model-based fair value for Leonardo S.p.A. is €33.43 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €49.36.
What is the quality score of LDO?
Leonardo S.p.A. has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Leonardo S.p.A. (LDO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €33.43 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario €22.10, optimistic scenario €46.47. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Leonardo S.p.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €33.43, about 32% lower versus a price of €49.36 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €22.10, optimistic scenario €46.47. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Leonardo S.p.A. (LDO)?
Leonardo S.p.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €20.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Leonardo S.p.A. pay a dividend?
Leonardo S.p.A. currently shows a dividend yield of 1.28% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Leonardo S.p.A. (LDO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Leonardo S.p.A. would have to grow free cash flow by +23.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.8 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of LDO use?
Our models discount Leonardo S.p.A. at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.39, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Leonardo S.p.A. that is +23.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Leonardo S.p.A. (LDO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Leonardo S.p.A. grew +7.8 % a year. The price currently implies +23.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Leonardo S.p.A. (LDO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Leonardo S.p.A. (+23.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Leonardo S.p.A. (LDO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.58 %: that much free cash flow Leonardo S.p.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Leonardo S.p.A. (LDO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Leonardo S.p.A. it is €33.43 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of €49.36. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Leonardo S.p.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, LDO trades above its calculated fair value: price €49.36, fair value €33.43, a gap of about −32% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LDO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€49.36); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€33.43). For Leonardo S.p.A. the two are €15.93 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Leonardo S.p.A. worth?
The market values Leonardo S.p.A. at about €28.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is €49.36; our models calculate a fair value of €33.43 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LDO?
Our models span a range for Leonardo S.p.A.: cautious scenario €22.10, base €33.43, optimistic €46.47 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price €49.36). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LDO?
Leonardo S.p.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.7 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €33.43 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 26.0 (reported for FY2025: 23.3). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 13.5. Other multiples: PEG 1.3, P/B 3.0, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 11.5.
What is the PEG ratio of LDO?
The PEG ratio of Leonardo S.p.A. is 1.31 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Leonardo S.p.A. (LDO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Leonardo S.p.A. (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 11.9%, debt of 0.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LDO from its 52-week high?
Leonardo S.p.A. trades at €49.36, about 22% below its 52-week high of €63.49 and 11% above the low of €44.43 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €33.43 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Leonardo S.p.A.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Leonardo S.p.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price €49.36, calculated fair value €33.43 (−32%), Quality Score 56/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LDO calculated?
We run Leonardo S.p.A. through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €33.43, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Leonardo S.p.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Leonardo S.p.A. (LDO)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was €49.36. Our model-based fair value is €33.43, about 32% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Leonardo S.p.A. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€46.47). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€22.10 to €46.47) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Leonardo S.p.A. (LDO) come from?
Earnings per share at Leonardo S.p.A. grew +8.4 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.0 %, EBIT margin +2.6 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Leonardo S.p.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of Leonardo S.p.A. (LDO)?
The market capitalisation of Leonardo S.p.A. is €28.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Leonardo S.p.A. (LDO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Leonardo S.p.A. is 1.38 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Leonardo S.p.A. (LDO)?
Earnings per share at Leonardo S.p.A. are €2.00 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Leonardo S.p.A. (LDO)?
The dividend yield of Leonardo S.p.A. is 1.3% (payout 35.2%, on adjusted earnings, reported 31.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Leonardo S.p.A. (LDO)?
The net margin of Leonardo S.p.A. is 5.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Leonardo S.p.A. (LDO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Leonardo S.p.A. is 11.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Leonardo S.p.A. (LDO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Leonardo S.p.A. is 3.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Leonardo S.p.A. (LDO)?
The operating margin of Leonardo S.p.A. is 7.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Leonardo S.p.A. (LDO)?
Revenue at Leonardo S.p.A. is growing +16.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Leonardo S.p.A. (LDO)?
Earnings per share at Leonardo S.p.A. are growing +93.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Leonardo S.p.A. (LDO) carry?
The net debt of Leonardo S.p.A. is €643M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026