Rheinmetall AG (RHM) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · DE · Market cap €44.9B
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from €392.14 to €314.04 (−19.9%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +4.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 73% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€392.55). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €72.46 – €1,969 · fair‑value band €235.53 – €392.55 · the €1,159 price screens above the €314.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Rheinmetall AG (RHM) currently trades at €1,159, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €314.04, implying the stock looks roughly 72.9% overvalued today. We read business quality at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Rheinmetall AG generated revenue of €10.1B at a net margin of 7.2%. Revenue grew 7.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 21.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of €368M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €235.53 (bear case) to €392.55 (bull case); at €1,159, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -55% fair-value upside, at -73%, RHM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (€522.25) versus Asset-Based (€72.14). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Rheinmetall AG provides mobility and security technologies in Germany, Rest of Europe, North, Middle, and South America, Asia and the Near East, and internationally. The company operates through the Vehicle Systems, Weapon and Ammunition, and Electronic Solutions segments.
Full company description
Rheinmetall AG provides mobility and security technologies in Germany, Rest of Europe, North, Middle, and South America, Asia and the Near East, and internationally. The company operates through the Vehicle Systems, Weapon and Ammunition, and Electronic Solutions segments. Its Vehicle Systems segment offers combat, logistics, support, and special vehicles, including armored tracked vehicles, CBRN protection systems, artillery, turret systems, and wheeled logistics and tactical vehicles. The Weapon and Ammunition segment provides firepower and protection solutions, such as weapons and ammunition, protection systems, propellants, and international projects and services. Its Electronic Solutions segment offers a chain of systems network, such as sensors, networking platforms, automated connected effectors for soldiers, cyberspace protection solutions, and training and simulation solutions. The company's products include air defense, soldier, and fire control systems; radar technology; and command, control and reconnaissance systems, as well as simulations for the army, air force, navy, and civil applications. It also engages in the aftermarket activities. The company was formerly known as Rheinmetall Berlin AG and changed its name to Rheinmetall AG in 1996. Rheinmetall AG was founded in 1889 and is headquartered in Düsseldorf, Germany.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Rheinmetall AG reported revenue of €9.9B in FY2025 versus €5.7B in FY2021, a compound +15.1%/yr. Reported net income was €696M in FY2025, compounding +24.4%/yr from FY2021.
RHM screens 73% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Rheinmetall shares surge after armsmaker reports record profit
- Rheinmetall Q2 profit beats forecasts as revenue jumps nearly 70%
- Rheinmetall Faces Fresh Protests as Around 40 Demonstrators Target Berlin Office
- Lockheed Martin and Rheinmetall Move Forward with ATACMS Co-Production in Europe
Peer Group
Aerospace & Defense · 227 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
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| RTX Corporation RTX | $195.93 | $88.37 | -55% |
| Airbus SE 1AIR | €206.30 | €92.85 | -55% |
| The Boeing Company BA | $217.11 | $48.20 | -78% |
| China CSSC Holdings 600150 | ¥34.31 | ¥21.90 | -36% |
| HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co 329180 | 466,000 KRW | 272,966 KRW | -41% |
| Hanwha Aerospace Co 012450 | 967,000 KRW | 573,468 KRW | -41% |
| ASELSAN Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi ASELS | 337.50 TRY | 130.70 TRY | -61% |
| Saab AB SAABB | kr 520.40 | kr 212.84 | -59% |
| Kongsberg Gruppen ASA KOG | kr 277.50 | kr 106.93 | -61% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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