MDA Ltd (MDA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of MDA Ltd stock C$41.80, price C$38.00, upside +10.0%, quality 42 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$5.70 – C$67.13 · fair‑value band C$25.01 – C$54.34 · the C$38.00 price screens below the C$41.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 1, 2026.
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MDA Space Ltd. provides space technology solutions and services in Canada, the United States, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and internationally.
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It offers satellite communications solutions, such as space-based broadband Internet, direct-to-device satellite communication, and IoT connectivity; MDA AURORA, a software-defined digital satellite product line; and autonomous robotics systems and services used to operate in space and on the surfaces of the Moon and Mars.
The company also provides robotic systems, robotic interfaces, tooling, robotic ground control stations, and operations services; electro-optic and light detection and ranging sensors, vision and targeting systems, guidance, navigation, and control subsystems and planetary rover locomotion subsystems; MDA SKYMAKER, a suite of scalable and modular space robotics; and Canadarm3, a robotics system.
In addition, it offers satellite-generated imagery and data to deliver critical and value-added insights for end users, such as national security, climate change monitoring, and maritime surveillance; collection, processing, and dissemination of Earth imagery data from space; defense command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance solutions, including command and control systems and airborne surveillance solutions; aeronautical navigation information solutions; and long endurance uncrewed aerial vehicle surveillance services.
Further, operates as an owner and operator of the RADARSAT-2 Earth observation satellite; and is involved in the operation of MDA CHORUS, an Earth observation mission.
It serves governments and space agencies, commercial space companies, and defense and aerospace prime contractors in the space industry. The company was formerly known as MDA Ltd. and changed its name to MDA Space Ltd. in May 2024.
MDA Space Ltd. was incorporated in 1969 and is headquartered in Brampton, Canada.
Stock analysis
MDA Ltd (MDA) currently trades at C$38.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$41.80, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of C$31.79 per share, and 4 of the 22 models we run sit above the C$38.00 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at C$6.83, and 18 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: C$25.01 (bear) to C$54.34 (bull), the price of C$38.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
MDA Ltd reported revenue of C$1.6B in FY2025 versus C$477M in FY2021, a compound +36.0%/yr. Reported net income was C$109M in FY2025, compounding +147.3%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap C$6.5B (≈ $4.6B) Mid · P/E ratio 48.1 · P/S ratio 3.45 · EPS (TTM) C$0.7900 · Net margin 5.7% · Return on equity 6.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.3% · Operating margin 6.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 77% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at 10%, MDA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearC$25.01Fair Value C$41.80BullC$54.34
Price C$38.00 · Upside +10.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$0.6623 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+51.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+56.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+56.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−5% → 7%
2025 sits 108% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 3 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+36.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.7% a year for the price and +33.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (87 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Scaling satellite and defense offerings against a multi-billion backlog forms the main strength, while deeply negative free cash flow from heavy capital spending and working capital swings remains the key weakness.
Main risk: Failure to execute large programs on time would keep free cash flow negative and force continued reliance on dilution to cover spending needs.
MDA Space is scaling its satellite and defense offerings against a multi-billion backlog built from recent contract wins. Heavy capital spending and working capital swings on large programs have driven free cash flow deeply negative in the first half. Will project execution lift cash generation ahead of ongoing dilution and spending demands?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 239 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Below median
Fair Value upside+10.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.7% · Below median
Return on assets3.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)5.7% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)6.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)33.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.20× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)48.1× · Pricier than median
P/B4.76× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MDA Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MDA
Frequently asked questions
Is MDA Ltd (MDA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$41.80 versus a price of C$38.00, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of MDA?
Our model-based fair value for MDA Ltd is C$41.80 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$38.00.
What is the quality score of MDA?
MDA Ltd has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MDA Ltd (MDA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$41.80 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$25.01, optimistic scenario C$54.34. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MDA Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$41.80, about +10% upside versus a price of C$38.00 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario C$25.01, optimistic scenario C$54.34. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MDA Ltd (MDA)?
MDA Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$1.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into MDA Ltd (MDA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, MDA Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +8.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +32.9 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MDA use?
Our models discount MDA Ltd at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.19, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For MDA Ltd that is +8.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has MDA Ltd (MDA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at MDA Ltd grew +32.9 % a year. The price currently implies +8.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of MDA Ltd (MDA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into MDA Ltd (+8.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of MDA Ltd (MDA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.29 %: that much free cash flow MDA Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of MDA Ltd (MDA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MDA Ltd it is C$41.80 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of C$38.00. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MDA Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, MDA trades below its calculated fair value: price C$38.00, fair value C$41.80, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MDA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$38.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$41.80). For MDA Ltd the two are C$3.80 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MDA Ltd worth?
The market values MDA Ltd at about C$6.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is C$38.00; our models calculate a fair value of C$41.80 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MDA?
Our models span a range for MDA Ltd: cautious scenario C$25.01, base C$41.80, optimistic C$54.34 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price C$38.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MDA?
MDA Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 48.1 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$41.80 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 11.7, P/B 4.8, P/S 3.4, EV/EBITDA 30.7.
What is the PEG ratio of MDA?
The PEG ratio of MDA Ltd is 11.68 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 1, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of MDA Ltd (MDA)?
Balance-sheet figures for MDA Ltd (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 6.7%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MDA from its 52-week high?
MDA Ltd trades at C$38.00, about 43% below its 52-week high of C$67.13 and 77% above the low of C$21.43 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$41.80 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MDA Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MDA Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price C$38.00, calculated fair value C$41.80 (+10%), Quality Score 42/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MDA calculated?
We run MDA Ltd through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$41.80, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. MDA Ltd currently trades 9 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MDA Ltd (MDA)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was C$38.00. Our model-based fair value is C$41.80, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MDA Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (C$25.01 to C$54.34) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of MDA Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of MDA Ltd (MDA)?
The market capitalisation of MDA Ltd is C$6.5B (≈ $4.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MDA Ltd (MDA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MDA Ltd is 3.45 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MDA Ltd (MDA)?
Earnings per share at MDA Ltd are C$0.7900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 48.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of MDA Ltd (MDA)?
The net margin of MDA Ltd is 5.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MDA Ltd (MDA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MDA Ltd is 6.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MDA Ltd (MDA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MDA Ltd is 3.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MDA Ltd (MDA)?
The operating margin of MDA Ltd is 6.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MDA Ltd (MDA)?
Revenue at MDA Ltd is growing +33.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +36.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MDA Ltd (MDA)?
Earnings per share at MDA Ltd are growing −4.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does MDA Ltd (MDA) carry?
The net debt of MDA Ltd is C$259M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 1, 2026