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MDA Space Ltd. (MDA) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of MDA Space Ltd. $34.46, price $31.59, upside +9.1%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · US

MS MDA Space Ltd. logo Some data Sep 24, 2026

MDA Space Ltd.

MDA · US

NeutralQuality growthThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.

·Fair value $34.46 · Fairly valued (+9%)
!Quality 51/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +38.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/13)
!Narrow moat 41/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 1 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$48.68 $23.61 Fair Value $34.46 Mar 2026 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

6‑month range $23.61 – $48.68 · fair‑value band $19.06 – $46.82 · the $31.59 price screens below the $34.46 fair value. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

MDA Space Ltd. provides space technology solutions and services in Canada, the United States, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and internationally.

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MDA Space Ltd. provides space technology solutions and services in Canada, the United States, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and internationally. It offers satellite communications solutions, such as space-based broadband Internet, direct-to-device satellite communication, and IoT connectivity; MDA AURORA, a software-defined digital satellite product line; and autonomous robotics systems and services used to operate in space and on the surfaces of the Moon and Mars. The company also provides robotic systems, robotic interfaces, tooling, robotic ground control stations, and operations services; electro-optic and light detection and ranging sensors, vision and targeting systems, guidance, navigation, and control subsystems and planetary rover locomotion subsystems; MDA SKYMAKER, a suite of scalable and modular space robotics; and Canadarm3, a robotics system. In addition, it offers satellite-generated imagery and data to deliver critical and value-added insights for end users, such as national security, climate change monitoring, and maritime surveillance; collection, processing, and dissemination of Earth imagery data from space; defense command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance solutions, including command and control systems and airborne surveillance solutions; aeronautical navigation information solutions; and long endurance uncrewed aerial vehicle surveillance services. Further, operates as an owner and operator of the RADARSAT-2 Earth observation satellite; and is involved in the operation of MDA CHORUS, an Earth observation mission. It serves governments and space agencies, commercial space companies, and defense and aerospace prime contractors in the space industry. The company was formerly known as MDA Ltd. and changed its name to MDA Space Ltd. in May 2024. MDA Space Ltd. was incorporated in 1969 and is headquartered in Brampton, Canada.

Stock analysis

MDA Space Ltd. (MDA) currently trades at $31.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $34.46, implying the stock looks roughly 8.3% fairly valued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $26.07 per share, and 2 of the 24 models we run sit above the $31.59 price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $4.48, and 22 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $19.06 (bear) to $46.82 (bull), the price of $31.59 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

MDA Space Ltd. reported revenue of C$1.2B in FY2025 versus C$377M in FY2021, a compound +33.3%/yr. Reported net income was C$79.0M in FY2025, compounding +142.3%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

Key figures

Market cap $5.5B · P/E ratio 55.4 · P/S ratio 3.68 · EPS (TTM) $0.5700 · Net margin 6.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.7% · Operating margin 12.2% · Revenue (TTM) C$2.1B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at 9%, MDA screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $19.06 Fair Value $34.46 Bull $46.82
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4170 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV $3.71 $4.48 $5.14 74
FCF DCF $19.50 $30.65 $65.41 73
Growth DCF $18.24 $35.77 $64.01 73
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $19.50 $30.65 $65.41 73
Owner Earnings $5.78 $14.23 $31.30 67
5Y Revenue Exit $9.03 $14.45 $25.64 68
5Y EBITDA Exit $14.34 $25.19 $46.43 69
5Y P/E Exit $11.37 $23.92 $40.52 66
10Y Revenue Exit $12.10 $23.25 $28.88 65
10Y EBITDA Exit $16.13 $34.43 $65.40 62
10Y P/E Exit $14.01 $28.17 $50.29 59
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $3.87 $27.00 $37.90 61
Lynch FV $13.95 $19.93 $25.91 59
PEG = 1.0 $13.95 $19.93 $25.91 55
EPV $3.71 $4.48 $5.14 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $8.97 $11.96 $14.95 63
P/S Multiple $7.26 $9.68 $12.10 58
P/B Multiple $7.26 $9.68 $12.10 55
EV/EBIT $6.43 $8.95 $11.48 66
EV/EBITDA $11.83 $16.17 $20.50 67
EV/Revenue $4.25 $6.57 $8.90 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $3.56 $4.76 $7.11 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $18.24 $35.77 $64.01 73
Rev-Margin DCF $9.97 $16.73 $31.04 67
Economic Profit
Residual Income $5.83 $6.22 $6.89 68
ROIC Compounder $3.71 $4.48 $5.14 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $18.25 $26.07 $33.89 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27

Profitability 31
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 62
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 72
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 57
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 34
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 39
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 36
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 57
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+58.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+38.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+78.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+78.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−14% → 7%
2025 sits 101% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.

Growth Forecast

Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+20.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+17.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CAD, Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +17.7% a year for the price and +15.4% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+53.8%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+12.2%
Projected 2028 (sales)+10.9%
Projected 2029 (sales)+9.7%
Projected 2030 (sales)+8.4%

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Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (89 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 228 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 51 · Below median
Fair Value upside +9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 12% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.28× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 55.4× · Pricier than median
P/B 5.54× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 2.61× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 32.3× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 37.4× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)45 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)1 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)86 · sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 17

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Weapons Defense

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10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT $522.34 $440.05 −16%
Howmet Aerospace Inc HWM $225.36 $52.47 −77%
General Dynamics Corporation GD $343.39 $274.32 −20%
Northrop Grumman Corporation NOC $509.86 $383.06 −25%
TransDigm Group TDG $1,112 $1,224 +10%
L3Harris Technologies, Inc LHX $239.89 $263.88 +10%

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MDA Space Ltd. · Fair Value
$34.46 +8%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MDA Space Ltd. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MDA

Frequently asked questions

Is MDA Space Ltd. (MDA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $34.46 versus a price of $31.59, about +9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of MDA?
Our model-based fair value for MDA Space Ltd. is $34.46 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $31.59.
What is the quality score of MDA?
MDA Space Ltd. has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MDA Space Ltd. (MDA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $34.46 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $19.06, optimistic scenario $46.82. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MDA Space Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $34.46, about +9% upside versus a price of $31.59 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $19.06, optimistic scenario $46.82. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MDA Space Ltd. (MDA)?
MDA Space Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$2.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into MDA Space Ltd. (MDA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, MDA Space Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by +20.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +38.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MDA use?
Our models discount MDA Space Ltd. at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For MDA Space Ltd. that is +20.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has MDA Space Ltd. (MDA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at MDA Space Ltd. grew +38.7 % a year. The price currently implies +20.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of MDA Space Ltd. (MDA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into MDA Space Ltd. (+20.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of MDA Space Ltd. (MDA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.93 %: that much free cash flow MDA Space Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of MDA Space Ltd. (MDA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MDA Space Ltd. it is $34.46 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $31.59. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MDA Space Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, MDA trades below its calculated fair value: price $31.59, fair value $34.46, a gap of about +9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MDA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($31.59); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($34.46). For MDA Space Ltd. the two are $2.87 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MDA Space Ltd. worth?
The market values MDA Space Ltd. at about $5.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $31.59; our models calculate a fair value of $34.46 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MDA?
Our models span a range for MDA Space Ltd.: cautious scenario $19.06, base $34.46, optimistic $46.82 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $31.59). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MDA?
MDA Space Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 55.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $34.46 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 5.5, P/S 2.6, EV/EBITDA 37.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of MDA Space Ltd. (MDA)?
Balance-sheet figures for MDA Space Ltd. (as of Sep 24, 2026): debt of 0.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to MDA Space Ltd.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Safran SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MDA Space Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $31.59, calculated fair value $34.46 (+9%), Quality Score 51/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MDA calculated?
We run MDA Space Ltd. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $34.46, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. MDA Space Ltd. currently trades 9 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MDA Space Ltd. (MDA)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $31.59. Our model-based fair value is $34.46, about +9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MDA Space Ltd. right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($19.06 to $46.82) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of MDA Space Ltd.

How large is the market capitalisation of MDA Space Ltd. (MDA)?
The market capitalisation of MDA Space Ltd. is $5.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MDA Space Ltd. (MDA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MDA Space Ltd. is 3.68 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MDA Space Ltd. (MDA)?
Earnings per share at MDA Space Ltd. are $0.5700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 55.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of MDA Space Ltd. (MDA)?
The net margin of MDA Space Ltd. is 6.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MDA Space Ltd. (MDA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MDA Space Ltd. is 1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MDA Space Ltd. (MDA)?
The operating margin of MDA Space Ltd. is 12.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MDA Space Ltd. (MDA)?
Revenue at MDA Space Ltd. is growing +0.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +36.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MDA Space Ltd. (MDA)?
Earnings per share at MDA Space Ltd. are growing +1.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does MDA Space Ltd. (MDA) carry?
The net debt of MDA Space Ltd. is C$189M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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