MDA Space Ltd (MDA) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $5.5B
MDA Space Ltd
MDA · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from $8.40 to $6.90 (−17.9%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −10.6% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 80% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($8.63). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
5‑month range $23.61 – $48.68 · fair‑value band $5.18 – $8.63 · the $34.59 price screens above the $6.90 fair value. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
MDA Space Ltd (MDA) currently trades at $34.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.90, implying the stock looks roughly 80.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, MDA Space Ltd generated revenue of $2.1B at a net margin of 2.2%. Revenue grew 0.2% year over year. Net debt stands at $189M. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 69.1. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $5.18 (bear case) to $8.63 (bull case); at $34.59, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 49% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -59% fair-value upside, at -80%, MDA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($26.07) versus Economic Profit ($4.48). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
MDA Space Ltd. provides space technology solutions and services in Canada, the United States, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and internationally.
Full company description
MDA Space Ltd. provides space technology solutions and services in Canada, the United States, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and internationally. It offers satellite communications solutions, such as space-based broadband Internet, direct-to-device satellite communication, and IoT connectivity; MDA AURORA, a software-defined digital satellite product line; and autonomous robotics systems and services used to operate in space and on the surfaces of the Moon and Mars. The company also provides robotic systems, robotic interfaces, tooling, robotic ground control stations, and operations services; electro-optic and light detection and ranging sensors, vision and targeting systems, guidance, navigation, and control subsystems and planetary rover locomotion subsystems; MDA SKYMAKER, a suite of scalable and modular space robotics; and Canadarm3, a robotics system. In addition, it offers satellite-generated imagery and data to deliver critical and value-added insights for end users, such as national security, climate change monitoring, and maritime surveillance; collection, processing, and dissemination of Earth imagery data from space; defense command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance solutions, including command and control systems and airborne surveillance solutions; aeronautical navigation information solutions; and long endurance uncrewed aerial vehicle surveillance services. Further, operates as an owner and operator of the RADARSAT-2 Earth observation satellite; and is involved in the operation of MDA CHORUS, an Earth observation mission. It serves governments and space agencies, commercial space companies, and defense and aerospace prime contractors in the space industry. The company was formerly known as MDA Ltd. and changed its name to MDA Space Ltd. in May 2024. MDA Space Ltd. was incorporated in 1969 and is headquartered in Brampton, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
MDA Space Ltd reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2025 versus $377M in FY2021, a compound +33.3%/yr. Reported net income was $79.0M in FY2025, compounding +142.3%/yr from FY2021.
MDA screens 80% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- MDA SPACE AWARDED $474 MILLION TO EXPAND THE TELESAT LIGHTSPEED LEO CONSTELLATION
- MDA SPACE ANNOUNCES OFFERING OF C$600 MILLION SENIOR UNSECURED NOTES DUE 2033
- MDA Space Receives Notice to Proceed Contract From the European Space Company
- MDA Space UK Selected by OHB to Provide Advanced Lunar Landing Sensors for European Space Agency's Argonaut Mission
Peer Group
Aerospace & Defense · 226 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Electric Company GE | $381.22 | $116.71 | -69% |
| RTX Corporation RTX | $195.93 | $88.37 | -55% |
| Airbus SE 1AIR | €213.25 | €86.20 | -60% |
| The Boeing Company BA | $217.11 | $48.20 | -78% |
| China CSSC Holdings 600150 | ¥34.31 | ¥21.90 | -36% |
| HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co 329180 | 466,000 KRW | 272,966 KRW | -41% |
| Hanwha Aerospace Co 012450 | 967,000 KRW | 573,468 KRW | -41% |
| ASELSAN Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi ASELS | 337.50 TRY | 130.70 TRY | -61% |
| Saab AB SAABB | kr 520.40 | kr 212.84 | -59% |
| Kongsberg Gruppen ASA KOG | kr 277.50 | kr 106.93 | -61% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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