MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of MercadoLibre Inc. stock $1,914, price $1,530, upside +25.1%, quality 60 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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The stock costs 20% less than our calculation considers fair.
Fair value $1,914 · Undervalued (20%)
Quality 60/100
Healthy Growth(revenue 5y +48.7 %/yr in USD)
Generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers(9/14)
Positive coverage
Revenue last quarter +50% vs. a year ago.
Thin margins · 5.3% net margin (TTM)
Moderate debt
Moderate moat62/100
Insiders bought $1.2M (6M)
Some data
Quality growth
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Price drop: Brazil election reviving fiscal policy and currency concerns🚩Post-election fiscal and currency worries in Brazil🚩Agentic AI could disintermediate its marketplace🚩Shopee and Temu could squeeze margins via subsidies🚩Credit book expansion could raise default losses
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $612.70 – $2,614 · fair‑value band $1,340 – $2,488 · the $1,530 price screens below the $1,914 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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MercadoLibre, Inc. operates online commerce platforms in Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, and internationally.
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The company operates Mercado Libre Marketplace, an online commerce platform that can be accessed through mobile app or website; and Mercado Pago, a financial technology solution platform, which offers comprehensive set of financial technology services to users and other users of its e-commerce platform.
It also provides Mercado Fondo that allows users to invest funds deposited in their Mercado Pago accounts; Mercado Credito, which grants loans and obtains better funding alternatives; and Mercado Mercado Envios that facilitates the shipping of goods from the Company and sellers to buyers.
In addition, the company provides Mercado Libre Classifieds, where users can list vehicles, properties, and services; Mercado Ads, an advertising platform, which enables retailers and brands to promote their products and services on the platform.
MercadoLibre, Inc. was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Montevideo, Uruguay.
Stock analysis
MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI) currently trades at $1,530, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1,914, implying the stock looks roughly 20% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $2,491 per share, and 12 of the 24 models we run sit above the $1,530 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $349.06, and 12 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $1,340 (bear) to $2,488 (bull), the price of $1,530 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
MercadoLibre Inc. reported revenue of $28.9B in FY2025 versus $7.1B in FY2021, a compound +42.2%/yr. Reported net income was $2.0B in FY2025, compounding +121.5%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $88.2B Large · P/E ratio 41.6 · P/S ratio 2.51 · EPS (TTM) $36.77 · Net margin 5.3% · Return on equity 27.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.5% · Operating margin 6.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 62 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at 25%, MELI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$1,340Fair Value $1,914Bull$2,488
Price $1,530 · Upside +25.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($31.33 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors bought shares worth $1.2M, most recently on Jun 11, 2026. Buying cluster
BuyMarcelo MelamudSVP - Chief Accounting Officer2× since Feb 27, 2026: 182 shares, avg. $1,652$300,079Jun 11, 2026
BuyAlejandro Nicolas AguzinDirector600 shares at $1,656$993,556May 22, 2026
SaleHenrique Vasoncelos DubugrasDirector845 shares at $2,028$1.7MDec 12, 2025
SaleEmiliano CalemzukDirector45 shares at $2,027$91,232Dec 11, 2025
SaleStelleo ToldaDirector246 shares at $2,048$503,778Dec 9, 2025
Plus 4 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+39.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+38.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+48.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +46.1% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+52.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+81.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+81.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.88.2% vs 32.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 11%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−7.5%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+27.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −9.6% a year for the price and +25.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Moderate moat from LatAm market position and cash generation is offset by thin public signals on human capital and insider activity that limit durability assessment.
Main risk: Generative AI agents that shop on behalf of users might bypass the MercadoLibre platform entirely and reduce platform usage by buyers and sellers.
Bull case: MercadoLibre could integrate its own AI shopping agents deeply into the ecosystem and use proprietary data to retain users even in an agentic commerce environment.
Bear case: If agentic AI bypasses platforms and rivals like Shopee sustain subsidized competition while credit losses rise, MercadoLibre might see slower growth and sustained margin pressure across its core operations.
MercadoLibre generates more than half its revenue in Brazil, where the recent election result has revived worries about fiscal policy, higher interest rates and a weaker local currency. Those pressures hit both its core marketplace and the fast-expanding credit book hardest. Our models see the shares as undervalued after the drop. Will the November 4 earnings show that credit quality in Brazil holds steady or expose fresh headwinds?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Retail · 101 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside+25.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)27.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets4.7% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)5.3% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)6.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)49.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.67× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)41.6× · Priciest 25%
P/B13.07× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)2.51× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)8.2× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MercadoLibre Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MELI
Frequently asked questions
Is MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1,914 versus a price of $1,530, about +25% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MELI?
Our model-based fair value for MercadoLibre Inc. is $1,914 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1,530.
What is the quality score of MELI?
MercadoLibre Inc. has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1,914 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1,340, optimistic scenario $2,488. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MercadoLibre Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1,914, about +25% upside versus a price of $1,530 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $1,340, optimistic scenario $2,488. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI)?
MercadoLibre Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $35.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, MercadoLibre Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by -7.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +48.7 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MELI use?
Our models discount MercadoLibre Inc. at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.39, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For MercadoLibre Inc. that is -7.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at MercadoLibre Inc. grew +48.7 % a year. The price currently implies -7.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into MercadoLibre Inc. (-7.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.89 %: that much free cash flow MercadoLibre Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MercadoLibre Inc. it is $1,914 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $1,530. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MercadoLibre Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, MELI trades below its calculated fair value: price $1,530, fair value $1,914, a gap of about +25% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MELI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1,530); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1,914). For MercadoLibre Inc. the two are $383.59 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MercadoLibre Inc. worth?
The market values MercadoLibre Inc. at about $88.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $1,530; our models calculate a fair value of $1,914 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MELI?
Our models span a range for MercadoLibre Inc.: cautious scenario $1,340, base $1,914, optimistic $2,488 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $1,530). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MELI?
MercadoLibre Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 41.6 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1,914 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 5 of the years ex one-offs: 81.2. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 13.1, P/S 2.5, EV/EBITDA 22.9.
What is the PEG ratio of MELI?
The PEG ratio of MercadoLibre Inc. is 0.91 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI)?
Balance-sheet figures for MercadoLibre Inc. (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 27.5%, debt of 0.67 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MELI from its 52-week high?
MercadoLibre Inc. trades at $1,530, about 34% below its 52-week high of $2,302 and at the low of $1,530 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1,914 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MercadoLibre Inc.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, Alibaba Group, PDD Holdings, Prosus N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MercadoLibre Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $1,530, calculated fair value $1,914 (+25%), Quality Score 60/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MELI calculated?
We run MercadoLibre Inc. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1,914, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. MercadoLibre Inc. currently trades 20% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $1,530. Our model-based fair value is $1,914, about +25% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MercadoLibre Inc. right now?
Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($1,340 to $2,488) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI) come from?
Earnings per share at MercadoLibre Inc. grew +33.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +44.5 %, EBIT margin −5.9 %, tax rate +0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of MercadoLibre Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI)?
The market capitalisation of MercadoLibre Inc. is $88.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MercadoLibre Inc. is 2.51 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI)?
Earnings per share at MercadoLibre Inc. are $36.77 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 41.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI)?
The net margin of MercadoLibre Inc. is 5.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MercadoLibre Inc. is 27.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MercadoLibre Inc. is 8.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI)?
The operating margin of MercadoLibre Inc. is 6.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI)?
Revenue at MercadoLibre Inc. is growing +49.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +38.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI)?
Earnings per share at MercadoLibre Inc. are growing −10.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI) carry?
The net debt of MercadoLibre Inc. is $7.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 5, 2026