MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc (MTSI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc stock $20.78, price $211, that is 90.2% below the price, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Our calculation puts a fair price 90% below what the stock costs today.
Highly profitable · 20.7% net margin (TTM)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Positive coverage
Last quarter vs. a year ago: revenue +36%, profit +167%.
Quality 54/100
Mixed Growth(revenue 5y +12.8 %/yr in USD)
Moderate moat61/100
Insiders sold $30.6M (6M)
Fair value $20.78 · Strongly overvalued (−90.2%)
Trails peers(4/14)
Thin data
Extreme value⟳ Cyclical
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Integrated solutions from Broadcom or Marvell could displace discrete components🚩US-China trade policies could disrupt supply chains or customer access🚩Concentration among a few large hyperscale customers could amplify demand swings
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $44.08 – $409.68 · fair‑value band $14.19 – $27.37 · the $210.98 price screens above the $20.78 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides analog semiconductor solutions for use in wireless and wireline applications across the radio frequency (RF), microwave, millimeter wave, and lightwave spectrum.
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The company offers a portfolio of standard and custom devices, including integrated circuits, multi-chip modules, diodes, amplifiers, switches and switch limiters, passive and active components, and subsystems.
Its semiconductor products are electronic components that are incorporated in electronic systems, such as wireless base stations, optical networks, radar and medical systems, satellite networks, and test and measurement applications.
The company serves carrier infrastructure, which comprise long-haul/metro, 5G and 6G infrastructure, satellite communications, and fiber-to-the-X/passive optical network; industrial and defense, including military and commercial radar, RF jammers, electronic countermeasures, and communication data links, as well as multi-market applications, such as industrial, medical, test and measurement, and scientific applications; and data centers.
It sells its products through direct sales force, applications engineering staff, independent sales representatives, resellers, and distributors. The company operates in the United States, China, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and internationally.
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. was formerly known as M/A-Com Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. in 2016. MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1950 and is based in Lowell, Massachusetts.
Stock analysis
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc (MTSI) currently trades at $210.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $20.78, 90% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $30.91 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the $210.98 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $3.92, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $14.19 (bear) to $27.37 (bull), the price of $210.98 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc reported revenue of $967M in FY2025 versus $607M in FY2021, a compound +12.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$54.2M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $16.5B Large · P/E ratio 49.0 · P/S ratio 12.5 · EPS (TTM) $4.31 · Net margin −5.6% · Return on equity 17.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.8% · Operating margin 23.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 61 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −7% fair-value upside, at −90%, MTSI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($3.92 to $35.86). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$14.19Fair Value $20.78Bull$27.37
Price $210.98 · Downside -90.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($4.31 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 8 officers or directors sold shares worth $30.6M and none bought.
SaleJohn KoberSenior VP and CFO6× since Nov 7, 2025: 42,734 shares, avg. $243.83$10.4MOct 26, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleAmbra R. RothSVP, GC and Secretary2× since Nov 19, 2025: 17,921 shares, avg. $165.98$3.0MOct 1, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleRobert DennehySenior VP and COO2× since Feb 26, 2026: 18,650 shares, avg. $245.65$4.6MAug 28, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleDonghyun Thomas HwangSVP, Global Sales6× since Nov 19, 2025: 22,368 shares, avg. $249.68$5.6MJun 25, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleStephen G DalyPresident and CEO, Director3× since Nov 10, 2025: 55,828 shares, avg. $228.68$12.8MMay 29, 202610b5-1 plan
SalePeter Y ChungDirector43,268 shares at $378.20$16.4MMay 14, 2026
SaleCharles R BlandDirector4× since Nov 14, 2025: 6,800 shares, avg. $200.38$1.4MMay 13, 2026
SaleGeoffrey G RibarDirector2× since Feb 25, 2026: 3,867 shares, avg. $299.02$1.2MMay 11, 2026
SaleJohn RitchieDirector1,573 shares at $255.00$401,115Feb 25, 2026
SaleSusan Ocampo10% owner9× since Nov 7, 2025: 1,118,428 shares, avg. $222.66$249.0MFeb 25, 2026
Plus 20 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.89/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+32.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.7% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−19.2% (2019) → 11.5% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+47.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+22.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +43.6% a year for the price and +19.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Internal fabs enable higher utilization and margins as 3.2T optical solutions ramp, yet sustained net losses highlight weak profitability in a competitive semiconductor market.
Main risk: Larger competitors such as Broadcom or Marvell might offer monolithic or integrated optical solutions that reduce demand for MACOM's discrete photonic and analog components in AI data center transceivers, pressuring its prices and margins.
Bull case: By expanding its internal fab capacity and qualifying new high-performance products like 3.2T chipsets and CW lasers, MACOM could increase content per optical link and capture share even if some customers move toward more integrated architectures.
Bear case: If larger rivals successfully integrate optical functions or hyperscalers accelerate in-house or co-packaged designs, MACOM's addressable market for discrete components could shrink materially, limiting growth in its largest data center segment.
MACOM designs and manufactures its own compound semiconductor components for high-speed optical connectivity in AI data centers as well as defense and telecom applications. Its internal fabs support higher utilization and margins as new 3.2T solutions ramp, yet scaling these alongside existing programs brings execution and capacity questions. Will the AI-driven optical growth outpace any constraints from qualification timelines and market competition?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductors · 370 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Below median
Fair Value upside−90.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)17.2% · Above median
Return on assets−2.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)20.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)23.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)35.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.26× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
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Is MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc (MTSI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $20.78 versus a price of $210.98, about 90% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MTSI?
Our model-based fair value for MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc is $20.78 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $210.98.
What is the quality score of MTSI?
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc (MTSI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $20.78 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $14.19, optimistic scenario $27.37. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $20.78, about 90% lower versus a price of $210.98 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $14.19, optimistic scenario $27.37. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc (MTSI)?
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc (MTSI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +47.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.8 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MTSI use?
Our models discount MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc at 11.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.83, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc that is +47.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc (MTSI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc grew +12.8 % a year. The price currently implies +47.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc (MTSI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc (+47.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc (MTSI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.93 %: that much free cash flow MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc (MTSI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc it is $20.78 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $210.98. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, MTSI trades above its calculated fair value: price $210.98, fair value $20.78, a gap of about −90% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MTSI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($210.98); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($20.78). For MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc the two are $190.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc worth?
The market values MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc at about $16.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $210.98; our models calculate a fair value of $20.78 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MTSI?
Our models span a range for MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $14.19, base $20.78, optimistic $27.37 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $210.98). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MTSI?
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 49.0 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $20.78 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 5 fiscal years (2016 to 2024), reported earnings: 106.5. Other multiples: PEG 2.1, P/B 12.5, P/S 14.2, EV/EBITDA 60.8.
What is the PEG ratio of MTSI?
The PEG ratio of MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc is 2.05 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc (MTSI)?
Balance-sheet figures for MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 17.2%, debt of 0.26 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MTSI from its 52-week high?
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc trades at $210.98, about 49% below its 52-week high of $409.68 and 36% above the low of $155.39 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $20.78 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value NVIDIA Corporation, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Broadcom Inc, Micron Technology, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $210.98, calculated fair value $20.78 (−90%), Quality Score 54/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MTSI calculated?
We run MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $20.78, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7% above its aggregate fair value. MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc (MTSI)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $210.98. Our model-based fair value is $20.78, about 90% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($27.37). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($14.19 to $27.37) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc (MTSI)?
The market capitalisation of MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc is $16.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc (MTSI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc is 12.5 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc (MTSI)?
Earnings per share at MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc are $4.31 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 49.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc (MTSI)?
The net margin of MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc is −5.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc (MTSI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc is 17.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc (MTSI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc is 6.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc (MTSI)?
The operating margin of MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc is 23.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc (MTSI)?
Revenue at MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc is growing +35.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc (MTSI)?
Earnings per share at MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc are growing +167% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc (MTSI) carry?
The net debt of MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc is $426M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 6, 2026