MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc (MTSI) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $23.5B · ISIN US55405Y1001
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc
MTSI · US
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 18, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 13 days ago
Share price +16.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but trading 654% above our fair value.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($45.40). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($23.77 to $45.40) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $44.08 – $409.68 · fair‑value band $23.77 – $45.40 · the $265.27 price screens above the $35.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 18, 2026.
Analysis
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc (MTSI) currently trades at $265.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $35.20, implying the stock looks roughly 86.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc generated revenue of $1.1B at a net margin of 16.5%. Revenue grew 22.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.5%. Net debt stands at $426M. Fundamentals as of Aug 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $23.77 (bear case) to $45.40 (bull case); at $265.27, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 125% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -59% fair-value upside, at -87%, MTSI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 11 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 2.14 USD per share, which is 6.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($41.71) versus Dividend Discount ($1.18). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides analog semiconductor solutions for use in wireless and wireline applications across the radio frequency (RF), microwave, millimeter wave, and lightwave spectrum.
Full company description
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides analog semiconductor solutions for use in wireless and wireline applications across the radio frequency (RF), microwave, millimeter wave, and lightwave spectrum. The company offers a portfolio of standard and custom devices, including integrated circuits, multi-chip modules, diodes, amplifiers, switches and switch limiters, passive and active components, and subsystems. Its semiconductor products are electronic components that are incorporated in electronic systems, such as wireless base stations, optical networks, radar and medical systems, satellite networks, and test and measurement applications. The company serves carrier infrastructure, which comprise long-haul/metro, 5G and 6G infrastructure, satellite communications, and fiber-to-the-X/passive optical network; industrial and defense, including military and commercial radar, RF jammers, electronic countermeasures, and communication data links, as well as multi-market applications, such as industrial, medical, test and measurement, and scientific applications; and data centers. It sells its products through direct sales force, applications engineering staff, independent sales representatives, resellers, and distributors. The company operates in the United States, China, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and internationally. MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. was formerly known as M/A-Com Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. in 2016. MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1950 and is based in Lowell, Massachusetts.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc reported revenue of $967M in FY2025 versus $607M in FY2021, a compound +12.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$54.2M in FY2025.
MTSI screens 654% overvalued. Compare with NVIDIA Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- AMD, Marvell Technology, Semtech, Allegro MicroSystems, and MACOM Stocks Trade Up, What You Need To Know
- MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings (MTSI) Could Be 33% Undervalued After Earnings And Guidance
- MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI): Can Data Center and 5G Demand Drive More Upside?
Peer Group
Semiconductors · 325 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Semiconductors stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA Corporation NVDA | $227.98 | $98.98 | -57% |
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company TSM | $427.30 | $296.10 | -31% |
| Broadcom Inc AVGO | $371.54 | $118.27 | -68% |
| SK hynix Inc 000660 | 1,730,000 KRW | 1,481,291 KRW | -14% |
| Micron Technology, Inc MU | $932.86 | $148.38 | -84% |
| Advanced Micro Devices, Inc AMD | $476.67 | $55.02 | -88% |
| Intel Corporation INTC | $92.09 | $35.41 | -62% |
| Texas Instruments Incorporated TXN | $266.54 | $78.54 | -71% |
| QUALCOMM Incorporated QCOM | $164.78 | $147.20 | -11% |
| MediaTek Inc 2454 | 3,845 TWD | 1,559 TWD | -59% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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