NSK Ltd (NPSKY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of NSK Ltd stock $13.76, price $11.56, upside +19.0%, quality 63 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.22 – $17.69 · fair‑value band $10.32 – $17.20 · the $11.56 price screens below the $13.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
Follow NSK Ltd ADR in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether NSK Ltd ADR is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
NSK Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells industrial machinery bearings, automotive products, and precision machinery and parts worldwide.
Show moreShow less
The company's products include ball bearings; roller bearings; bearing units; super precision bearings; bearings for steel industry, mining and construction, papermaking machines, and pumps and compressors; and bearings for special environments, including sanitary, corrosive, vacuum, cleanroom, high-temperature, non-magnetic requirement, and dust-contaminated environments.
It also provides automotive products, which comprise chassis products, such as electric power steerings, steering column and intermediate shafts, brake systems, and hub unit bearings; power train products comprising engine parts and electrical accessories, automatic and manual transmission, differential gear and propeller shafts, electrical accessories, engine parts, toroidal CVT POWERTOROS unit, and motorcycles and all-terrain vehicles.
In addition, the company offers precision machine components, including ball screws, linear guides, monocarriers linear actuators, XY tables, and spindles; and accessories, including ball screw support bearings, air bearings, and clean grease, as well as support units for heavy and light loads, machine tools, and small equipment.
Further, the company provides megatorque motors and maintenance services, and condition monitoring solutions through wireless vibration diagnostic device D-VibA10. It serves agriculture, automotive, cement, food and beverage, industrial motor and gearbox, injection molding machine, machine tool, medical device, mining and construction, motorcycle, office equipment, palm oil, papermaking machinery, pump and compressor, railway, semiconductor, steel and metal, sugar, and wind turbine industries.
NSK Ltd. was incorporated in 1916 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
NSK Ltd (NPSKY) currently trades at $11.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.76, implying the stock looks roughly 16% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $24.53 per share, and 15 of the 24 models we run sit above the $11.56 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.18, and 9 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $10.32 (bear) to $17.20 (bull), the price of $11.56 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
NSK Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥967B in FY2026 versus ¥865B in FY2022, a compound +2.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥24.2B in FY2026, compounding +10.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $2.8B Mid · P/E ratio 13.9 · P/S ratio 0.35 · EPS (TTM) $0.8300 · Dividend yield 3.2% · Net margin 2.5% · Return on equity 4.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.4% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at 19%, NPSKY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$10.32Fair Value $13.76Bull$17.20
Price $11.56 · Upside +19.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5048 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.65/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+21.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.1% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.7%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ −3.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−6.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−5.2% vs −14.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 3%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 7.6%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2026 sits 127% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−21.8%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −23.4% a year for the price and +2.9% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: AI partnership with Accenture boosts motion control capabilities while the main weakness remains persistently low returns on equity in the commoditized auto parts industry.
Main risk: Pending integration with NTN introduces restructuring costs and strategic questions that could strain management focus on core operations.
NSK is partnering with Accenture on a joint venture to accelerate AI and digital tools across its motion control operations while demand from AI-related investments lifts its industrial bearings and precision products. Yet the pending business integration with NTN adds layers of restructuring costs and strategic questions. Will these technology moves expand its reach faster than the consolidation absorbs management focus?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 656 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+19.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)4.9% · Below median
Return on assets2.0% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)3.2% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)5.6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)30.6% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.2% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $13.76 versus a price of $11.56, about +19% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NPSKY?
Our model-based fair value for NSK Ltd is $13.76 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.56.
What is the quality score of NPSKY?
NSK Ltd has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NSK Ltd (NPSKY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $13.76 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.32, optimistic scenario $17.20. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NSK Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $13.76, about +19% upside versus a price of $11.56 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $10.32, optimistic scenario $17.20. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NSK Ltd (NPSKY)?
NSK Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥972B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does NSK Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
NSK Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 3.22% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of NSK Ltd (NPSKY) and when is the ex-dividend date?
NSK Ltd has a dividend yield of 3.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Mar 31, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2005. The payout ratio is 59.5% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 4.39 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into NSK Ltd (NPSKY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, NSK Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -21.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.3 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NPSKY use?
Our models discount NSK Ltd at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.53, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For NSK Ltd that is -21.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has NSK Ltd (NPSKY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at NSK Ltd grew +5.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -21.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of NSK Ltd (NPSKY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into NSK Ltd (-21.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of NSK Ltd (NPSKY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.08 %: that much free cash flow NSK Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of NSK Ltd (NPSKY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NSK Ltd it is $13.76 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $11.56. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is NSK Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, NPSKY trades below its calculated fair value: price $11.56, fair value $13.76, a gap of about +19% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NPSKY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.56); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($13.76). For NSK Ltd the two are $2.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NSK Ltd ADR worth?
The market values NSK Ltd at about $2.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $11.56; our models calculate a fair value of $13.76 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NPSKY?
Our models span a range for NSK Ltd: cautious scenario $10.32, base $13.76, optimistic $17.20 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $11.56). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NPSKY?
NSK Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.9 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $13.76 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 16.3. Other multiples: PEG 4.1, P/B 0.7, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 2.9.
What is the PEG ratio of NPSKY?
The PEG ratio of NSK Ltd is 4.13 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of NSK Ltd (NPSKY)?
Balance-sheet figures for NSK Ltd (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 4.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NPSKY from its 52-week high?
NSK Ltd trades at $11.56, about 35% below its 52-week high of $17.69 and 1% above the low of $11.45 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $13.76 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NSK Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value O'Reilly Automotive, Inc, AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NSK Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $11.56, calculated fair value $13.76 (+19%), Quality Score 63/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NPSKY calculated?
We run NSK Ltd through 24 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $13.76 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. NSK Ltd currently trades 16% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NSK Ltd (NPSKY)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $11.56. Our model-based fair value is $13.76, about +19% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NSK Ltd ADR right now?
The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of NSK Ltd (NPSKY) come from?
Earnings per share at NSK Ltd grew −19.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −7.8 %, EBIT margin −10.1 %, tax rate −4.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of NSK Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of NSK Ltd (NPSKY)?
The market capitalisation of NSK Ltd is $2.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NSK Ltd (NPSKY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NSK Ltd is 0.35 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NSK Ltd (NPSKY)?
Earnings per share at NSK Ltd are $0.8300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of NSK Ltd (NPSKY)?
The dividend yield of NSK Ltd is 3.2% (payout 44.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of NSK Ltd (NPSKY)?
The net margin of NSK Ltd is 2.5% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NSK Ltd (NPSKY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NSK Ltd is 4.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NSK Ltd (NPSKY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NSK Ltd is 2.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NSK Ltd (NPSKY)?
The operating margin of NSK Ltd is 5.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NSK Ltd (NPSKY)?
Revenue at NSK Ltd is growing +30.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NSK Ltd (NPSKY)?
Earnings per share at NSK Ltd are growing +793% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does NSK Ltd (NPSKY) carry?
The net debt of NSK Ltd is ¥77.3B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 1.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch NSK Ltd ADR in the live analysis
One click puts NSK Ltd ADR on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Broad data
Nov 8, 2026