NSK Ltd (NPSKY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of NSK Ltd $12.95, price $14.23, upside -9.0%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.22 – $17.69 · fair‑value band $9.22 – $16.69 · the $14.23 price screens above the $12.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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NSK Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells industrial machinery bearings, automotive products, and precision machinery and parts worldwide.
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NSK Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells industrial machinery bearings, automotive products, and precision machinery and parts worldwide. The company's products include ball bearings; roller bearings; bearing units; super precision bearings; bearings for steel industry, mining and construction, papermaking machines, and pumps and compressors; and bearings for special environments, including sanitary, corrosive, vacuum, cleanroom, high-temperature, non-magnetic requirement, and dust-contaminated environments. It also provides automotive products, which comprise chassis products, such as electric power steerings, steering column and intermediate shafts, brake systems, and hub unit bearings; power train products comprising engine parts and electrical accessories, automatic and manual transmission, differential gear and propeller shafts, electrical accessories, engine parts, toroidal CVT POWERTOROS unit, and motorcycles and all-terrain vehicles. In addition, the company offers precision machine components, including ball screws, linear guides, monocarriers linear actuators, XY tables, and spindles; and accessories, including ball screw support bearings, air bearings, and clean grease, as well as support units for heavy and light loads, machine tools, and small equipment. Further, the company provides megatorque motors and maintenance services, and condition monitoring solutions through wireless vibration diagnostic device D-VibA10. It serves agriculture, automotive, cement, food and beverage, industrial motor and gearbox, injection molding machine, machine tool, medical device, mining and construction, motorcycle, office equipment, palm oil, papermaking machinery, pump and compressor, railway, semiconductor, steel and metal, sugar, and wind turbine industries. NSK Ltd. was incorporated in 1916 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
NSK Ltd ADR (NPSKY) currently trades at $14.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.95, implying the stock looks roughly 9.9% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $18.93 per share, and 12 of the 22 models we run sit above the $14.23 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $7.80, and 10 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $9.22 (bear) to $16.69 (bull), the price of $14.23 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
NSK Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥967B in FY2026 versus ¥865B in FY2022, a compound +2.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥24.2B in FY2026, compounding +10.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $3.5B · P/E ratio 24.5 · P/S ratio 0.62 · EPS (TTM) $0.5800 · Dividend yield 2.9% · Net margin 2.5% · Return on equity 3.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −9%, NPSKY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $9.22Fair Value $12.95Bull $16.69
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.65/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+21.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.1% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ −3.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−6.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−5% vs −14%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 7.6%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2026 sits 127% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−13.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −14.9% a year for the price and +1.5% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 698 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth27% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.9% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.95 versus a price of $14.23, about −9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of NPSKY?
Our model-based fair value for NSK Ltd ADR is $12.95 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.23.
What is the quality score of NPSKY?
NSK Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NSK Ltd (NPSKY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.95 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.22, optimistic scenario $16.69. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NSK Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $12.95, about −9% upside versus a price of $14.23 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $9.22, optimistic scenario $16.69. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NSK Ltd (NPSKY)?
NSK Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥912B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does NSK Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
NSK Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.87% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into NSK Ltd (NPSKY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, NSK Ltd ADR would have to grow free cash flow by -13.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NPSKY use?
Our models discount NSK Ltd ADR at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.53, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For NSK Ltd ADR that is -13.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has NSK Ltd (NPSKY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at NSK Ltd ADR grew +5.3 % a year. The price currently implies -13.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of NSK Ltd (NPSKY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into NSK Ltd ADR (-13.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of NSK Ltd (NPSKY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.44 %: that much free cash flow NSK Ltd ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of NSK Ltd (NPSKY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NSK Ltd ADR it is $12.95 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $14.23. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NSK Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, NPSKY trades above its calculated fair value: price $14.23, fair value $12.95, a gap of about −9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NPSKY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.23); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.95). For NSK Ltd ADR the two are $1.28 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NSK Ltd ADR worth?
The market values NSK Ltd ADR at about $3.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $14.23; our models calculate a fair value of $12.95 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NPSKY?
Our models span a range for NSK Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $9.22, base $12.95, optimistic $16.69 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $14.23). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NPSKY?
NSK Ltd ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $12.95 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 4.1, P/B 0.8, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 4.6.
What is the PEG ratio of NPSKY?
The PEG ratio of NSK Ltd ADR is 4.13 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of NSK Ltd (NPSKY)?
Balance-sheet figures for NSK Ltd ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 3.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NPSKY from its 52-week high?
NSK Ltd ADR trades at $14.23, about 20% below its 52-week high of $17.69 and 46% above the low of $9.73 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $12.95 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NSK Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value O'Reilly Automotive, Inc, AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NSK Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $14.23, calculated fair value $12.95 (−9%), Quality Score 63/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NPSKY calculated?
We run NSK Ltd ADR through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $12.95, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. NSK Ltd ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NSK Ltd (NPSKY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $14.23. Our model-based fair value is $12.95, about −9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NSK Ltd ADR right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($9.22 to $16.69) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of NSK Ltd (NPSKY) come from?
Earnings per share at NSK Ltd ADR grew −19.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −7.8 %, EBIT margin −10.1 %, tax rate −4.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of NSK Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of NSK Ltd (NPSKY)?
The market capitalisation of NSK Ltd ADR is $3.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NSK Ltd (NPSKY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NSK Ltd ADR is 0.62 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NSK Ltd (NPSKY)?
Earnings per share at NSK Ltd ADR are $0.5800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of NSK Ltd (NPSKY)?
The dividend yield of NSK Ltd ADR is 2.9% (payout 70.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of NSK Ltd (NPSKY)?
The net margin of NSK Ltd ADR is 2.5% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NSK Ltd (NPSKY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NSK Ltd ADR is 3.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NSK Ltd (NPSKY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NSK Ltd ADR is 2.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NSK Ltd (NPSKY)?
The operating margin of NSK Ltd ADR is 4.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NSK Ltd (NPSKY)?
Revenue at NSK Ltd ADR is growing +26.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NSK Ltd (NPSKY)?
Earnings per share at NSK Ltd ADR are growing +38.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does NSK Ltd (NPSKY) carry?
The net debt of NSK Ltd ADR is ¥77.3B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 1.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026