Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA stock PLN 122, price PLN 141, that is 13.3% below the price, quality 61 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA
PKN · WAROur calculation puts a fair price 13% below what the stock costs today.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 37.78 PLN – 162.60 PLN · fair‑value band 120.45 PLN – 151.95 PLN · the 140.72 PLN price screens above the 122.03 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Company profile
Orlen S.A. operates in refining, petrochemical, energy, retail, gas, and upstream business.
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It engages in the processing and wholesale of refinery products, such as crude oil; production and sale of fuel, oil, chemicals, and petrochemicals, as well as provision of supporting services; production, distribution, and sale of electricity and heat from conventional and renewable energy sources comprising solar photovoltaics, as well as natural gas; trading of electricity; exploration and extraction of mineral resources; exploration, production, and import of natural gas; and trading and storage of gas and liquid gas.
The company is also involved in the exploration, recognition, and extraction of hydrocarbons; fuel station activities; and provision of transportation, maintenance and overhaul, laboratory, security, design, administrative, courier, insurance, and financial services, as well as press distribution, and media activities, such as newspapers and websites.
It offers petrol, diesel, LPG, and biofuels; aviation and marine fuels; heating oils; aromatics, including phenol, benzene, paraxylene, purified terephthalic acid, benzene-toulene fraction, and naphthalene concentrate; olefins; polyolefins comprising polyethylene; plastics, including polyvinyl chloride polanvil, compounds creovil, and PVC neralit; glycols; nitrogen fertilizers; and other products, such as acetone, ethylene oxide, masterbatch, advanced technical carbon black Chezacarb, caprolactam, soda lye, and sodium hypochlorite.
In addition, the company provides base, car and motorbike, truck, marine, industrial, and agricultural oils, as well as paraffin and solvents; table, pickling, iodized table, feed, scrap, and industrial salt, as well as industrial salt brine and dishwasher salt granules; and bitumen.
The company was formerly known as Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN Spólka Akcyjna and changed its name to Orlen S.A. in July 2023. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Plock, Poland.
Stock analysis
Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN) currently trades at 140.72 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 122.03 PLN, 13% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 313.83 PLN per share, and 13 of the 25 models we run sit above the 140.72 PLN price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 18.12 PLN, and 12 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 120.45 PLN (bear) to 151.95 PLN (bull), the price of 140.72 PLN sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA reported revenue of 268B PLN in FY2025 versus 131B PLN in FY2021, a compound +19.5%/yr. Reported net income was 2.5B PLN in FY2025, compounding −30.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 163B PLN (≈ $41.5B) Large · P/E ratio 7.8 · P/S ratio 0.07 · EPS (TTM) 18.11 PLN · Dividend yield 5.7% · Net margin 0.9% · Return on equity 8.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 63% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −13%, PKN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
All 25 models by family
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
Quality Score breakdown
It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Forecast
PKN screens overvalued: fair value 13% below the price. Compare with Saudi Arabian Oil Company →
Compare Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Integrated · 43 stocks
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Energy sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- EBIT margin by industry
- P/S ratio by industry
- Stock screener with 62 metrics
- Undervalued stocks: Energy
- Valuation of the Poland market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina Company 601857 | ¥12.54 | ¥13.96 | +11% | vs PKN |
| China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 | ¥5.70 | ¥5.60 | −2% | vs PKN |
| TotalEnergies SE TTE | €80.70 | €73.68 | −9% | vs PKN |
| Petróleo Brasileiro S.A PBR | $18.80 | $15.70 | −16% | vs PKN |
| Equinor ASA EQNR | kr 405.40 | kr 336.81 | −17% | vs PKN |
| Suncor Energy Inc SU | $69.06 | $50.69 | −27% | vs PKN |
| Saudi Arabian Oil Company 2222 | 26.16 SAR | 19.04 SAR | −27% | vs PKN |
| Imperial Oil Limited IMO | $125.68 | $69.36 | −45% | vs PKN |
| Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM | $165.30 | $90.40 | −45% | vs PKN |
| Chevron Corporation CVX | $212.93 | $92.05 | −57% | vs PKN |
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Key figures of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA
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