SGHC Limited (SGHC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of SGHC Limited stock $12.71, price $11.36, upside +11.8%, quality 83 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.38 – $15.59 · fair‑value band $8.89 – $16.52 · the $11.36 price screens below the $12.71 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Super Group (SGHC) Limited operates as an online sports betting and gaming operator. The company provides Betway, an online sports betting and casino offering; and Spin, a multi-brand online casino.
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It operates in Africa, the Middle East, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, North America, and South/Latin America. Super Group (SGHC) Limited is based in Saint Peter Port, Guernsey.
Stock analysis
SGHC Limited (SGHC) currently trades at $11.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.71, implying the stock looks roughly 11% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $16.11 per share, and 12 of the 26 models we run sit above the $11.36 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $4.68, and 14 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $8.89 (bear) to $16.52 (bull), the price of $11.36 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 83/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
SGHC Limited reported revenue of $2.2B in FY2025 versus $1.5B in FY2021, a compound +10.5%/yr. Reported net income was $217M in FY2025, compounding −5.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $5.8B Mid · P/E ratio 14.0 · P/S ratio 2.34 · EPS (TTM) $0.8100 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 16.6% · Return on equity 49.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 19.6% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 85 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 26% fair-value upside, at 12%, SGHC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$8.89Fair Value $12.71Bull$16.52
Price $11.36 · Upside +11.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5831 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
SaleAlinda Van WykChief Financial Officer, Director3× since Apr 8, 2026: 152,585 shares, avg. $12.74$1.9MJul 31, 2026
SaleMartine NathanGeneral Counsel4,761 shares at $10.71$50,990Apr 8, 2026
Plus 6 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+31.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−28.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−29.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 19%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.9% a year for the price and +4.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (87 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Betway's revenue concentration in high-growth African and Middle Eastern markets supports expansion yet ties results tightly to local regulation and economics with only moderate evidence of durable advantage.
Main risk: Proposed additional gaming taxes in South Africa and delays in new licenses such as Namibia could reduce margins and slow revenue growth from the company's core African operations.
Bull case: The company could navigate tax and regulatory pressures by securing new licenses in lower-tax African markets and expanding its casino vertical to offset any margin squeeze in sports betting.
Bear case: If tax hikes and licensing setbacks materialise alongside the SARB investigation, the Africa revenue engine could face sustained margin erosion and slower expansion, limiting overall growth.
Super Group draws the bulk of its revenue from Africa and the Middle East through the Betway sports betting and casino platform. That concentration fuels expansion in high-growth emerging markets but also links results tightly to local regulation and economics. Will new partnerships broaden the geographic mix enough to reduce that dependence, or will the Africa engine keep driving the majority of gains?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gambling · 45 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score83 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+11.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)49.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets17.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)16.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)27.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)9.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Gambling median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)14.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B7.23× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)2.34× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)17.8× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "SGHC Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SGHC
Frequently asked questions
Is SGHC Limited (SGHC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.71 versus a price of $11.36, about +12% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SGHC?
Our model-based fair value for SGHC Limited is $12.71 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.36.
What is the quality score of SGHC?
SGHC Limited has a Quality Score of 83/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SGHC Limited (SGHC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.71 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.89, optimistic scenario $16.52. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SGHC Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $12.71, about +12% upside versus a price of $11.36 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $8.89, optimistic scenario $16.52. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SGHC Limited (SGHC)?
SGHC Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does SGHC Limited pay a dividend?
SGHC Limited currently shows a dividend yield of 1.14% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of SGHC Limited (SGHC) and when is the ex-dividend date?
SGHC Limited pays a dividend of $0.13 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.1%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 22, 2026. The payout ratio is 16.0% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 4.93 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into SGHC Limited (SGHC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, SGHC Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +6.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +19.7 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SGHC use?
Our models discount SGHC Limited at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.10, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For SGHC Limited that is +6.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has SGHC Limited (SGHC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at SGHC Limited grew +19.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +6.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of SGHC Limited (SGHC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into SGHC Limited (+6.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of SGHC Limited (SGHC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.62 %: that much free cash flow SGHC Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of SGHC Limited (SGHC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SGHC Limited it is $12.71 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $11.36. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is SGHC Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, SGHC trades below its calculated fair value: price $11.36, fair value $12.71, a gap of about +12% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SGHC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.36); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.71). For SGHC Limited the two are $1.35 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SGHC Limited worth?
The market values SGHC Limited at about $5.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $11.36; our models calculate a fair value of $12.71 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SGHC?
Our models span a range for SGHC Limited: cautious scenario $8.89, base $12.71, optimistic $16.52 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $11.36). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SGHC?
SGHC Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.0 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $12.71 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 7.2, P/S 2.3, EV/EBITDA 8.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of SGHC Limited (SGHC)?
Balance-sheet figures for SGHC Limited (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 49.2%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 83/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SGHC from its 52-week high?
SGHC Limited trades at $11.36, about 27% below its 52-week high of $15.59 and 34% above the low of $8.45 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $12.71 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SGHC Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Evolution AB, Flutter Entertainment plc, The Lottery Corporation, Lottomatica Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SGHC Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $11.36, calculated fair value $12.71 (+12%), Quality Score 83/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SGHC calculated?
We run SGHC Limited through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $12.71 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. SGHC Limited currently trades 11% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SGHC Limited (SGHC)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $11.36. Our model-based fair value is $12.71, about +12% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SGHC Limited right now?
A fairly wide model range ($8.89 to $16.52) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of SGHC Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of SGHC Limited (SGHC)?
The market capitalisation of SGHC Limited is $5.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of SGHC Limited (SGHC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SGHC Limited is 2.34 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of SGHC Limited (SGHC)?
Earnings per share at SGHC Limited are $0.8100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of SGHC Limited (SGHC)?
The dividend yield of SGHC Limited is 1.1% (payout 16.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of SGHC Limited (SGHC)?
The net margin of SGHC Limited is 16.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SGHC Limited (SGHC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SGHC Limited is 49.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SGHC Limited (SGHC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SGHC Limited is 19.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SGHC Limited (SGHC)?
The operating margin of SGHC Limited is 27.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SGHC Limited (SGHC)?
Revenue at SGHC Limited is growing +9.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at SGHC Limited (SGHC)?
Earnings per share at SGHC Limited are growing +47.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does SGHC Limited (SGHC) hold?
SGHC Limited holds more cash than debt, $438M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026